UFC 272 Main Event: Covington vs Masvidal Betting Pick and MMA Breakdown

This main event pick for UFC 272 covers the fight between Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington. We’ve assembled the odds for our top ten prop bet picks and the money lines, and analyzed the fight stats to bring you our top UFC 272 betting pick.  

Colby is the better wrestler by a long shot, and aligns in skill with many of the biggest losses of Masvidal’s biggest losses like Demian Maia and Benson Henderson. Expect Masvidal to swing heavy early and Colby to win a decision or a mid-fight finish. 
If you’re looking for high paying props, we’ll go into detail on our top prop bet picks under the props table.

Tale of the Tape for Masvidal vs Covington

Fighter Jorge ‘Gamebred’ Masvidal  Colby ‘Chaos’ Covington
Age 37 33
Height 5’11’’ 5’11’’
Reach/Stance 74’’ Orthodox  72’’ Orthodox 
Record 35-15 16-3
Submissions/TKO in UFC 1/7 2/3
Fighter Training Camp American Top Team MMA Masters 
Losses via Sub/TKO in UFC 0/1 1/1

Masvidal is older, but slightly lankier than Colby. This is a five round fight, and Masvidal has never won a five round decision, giving up three in his UFC journey. 
Colby has less total UFC finishes, but a greater finishing percentage. Chaos has finished 33% of his UFC showings, while Masvidal has finished 29% of his 36 UFC level bouts. 
Colby was submitted by Warlley Alves in 2015, something no one is expecting Masvidal to capitalize on. 

Recent Team Switch

Covington has been with ATT for a very long time, and was a training partner of Masvidal. Jorge has nicknamed him ‘Judas,’ saying that the move to MMA Masters was self-serving and a fake ploy at building tension for this fight. 
Masters is a good gym, but not proven on the level of the world class ATT to date. Masvidal has a training advantage. 

You have to appreciate the story on this one. Masvidal’s frustration seems real.

Masvidal’s Business Dealings

One issue for me is Masvidal’s focus. He’s building Gamebred Fight, a bare knuckle MMA organization. He’s managing no less than a dozen product deals, and traveling all over the world for various bookings, signing athletes, and being the CEO of Gamebred. 
To say this isn’t going to pull away from his fight camp is absurd. 

Betting Odds and Odds History for Masvidal vs Covington 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Masvidal Money Line +275
Covington Money Line -325
Over 4 ½ Rounds -155
Under 4 ½ Rounds  +125

Colby was +250 in his last loss to Usman, and +175 in his first. His only other loss is a -122 favorite bout to Warlley Alves. As the victor, he’s ranged form -135 to -325 over his last five, and upset Maia at +100 in 2017. 
Masvidal was similar at +246 and +275 to Usman in his last two showings. He upset both Ben Askren at +187 and Till at +188. He lost to Thompson at +165 and Maia at +100. It’s been tough for oddsmakers to get a bead on Masvidal, putting him as the underdog in half a dozen UFC upsets.

Over/Under Analysis

Including losses, Colby has seen the last round of every fight for the last ten. Even in his finishes, he finished fighters in the later rounds. Masvidal is similar in losses, seeing decision losses to Usman, Thompson and Maia in his last six. He’s got knockouts in the first, second and third round over his last ten fights. 
If you see a Covington victory, it’s hard not to assume you’re looking at a decision win, but with Masvidal’s new found businesses, I worry that the fighter is pulled away from training and will wilt against Colby, who’s dedicated to rubber match with Usman. I’m betting the Under if anything, but steering clear of these bets. 

Top Prop Bets for Masvidal vs Covington

Bet  Odds
Goes the Distance ‘No’ +105
Covington by Points -115
Covington by TKO  +300
Covington by Submission +900
Masvidal by TKO +400
Masvidal in Round 1 by TKO  +1500
Covington in Round 2  +850
Covington in Round 3 +1200
Colby Covington -5.5 Points -165
Covington Inside the Distance  +210
Masvidal Inside the Distance +375

Masvidal’s TKO props are some of the only one worth betting if you see him as the obvious victor. While I don’t think Colby will be so easy to put away, seeing how durable he looked against Usman, a first round TKO seems unlikely. The first round finish shows +1500, and maybe we’ll get another flying knee. 
Covington by TKO or Covington Inside the Distance are safe bets that pay out well, but the Covington -5.5 points spread covers both finishes and a blowout victory on the judges scorecards. After last week’s UFC scoring, you may be tentative to bet the points, but we’re back in Las Vegas where UFC judging is as accurate as it ever is. 
If you have more faith in Gamebred than I do, consider the Fight Doesn’t go the distance prop bet, a +105 payout. You’re banking on a knockout anyway, you may as well protect yourself from a Covington late fight finish. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown for Covington vs Masvidal 

First let’s take a look at both fighters’ performances against Usman. They’ve each had two fights with the champ, and they’ve lost all four fights. 

Usman vs Masvidal and Covington

Fight  Significant Strikes Landed/Absorbed Control Time for Usman  Usman Method of Victory  
Masvidal vs Usman 1 66/94 16:38 Decision
Masvidal vs Usman 2 31/21 1:42 TKO Round 2 1:02
Colby vs Usman 1 143/175 0:11 TKO Round 5 4:20
Colby vs Usman 2  107/123 1:16 Decision

Usman was able to control Masvidal in their first fight, and knocked him out with 21 strikes in their second fight. Masvdal gave up a minute of control, but won the first round with Usman in their second bout, before being brutally knocked out. 
Colby’s stand up battles with Usman don’t tell the whole story. Usman did plenty more damage, but Colby landed more strikes than anyone else, even on average, round per round against Usman. 
Usman had different strategies for each fighter, but I believe Covington’s striking to be technically superior, despite Masvidal having more power overall. These fights should also make it clear that Masvidal has a slim chance of finishing Covington. 

Masvidal hits hard, but Usman is the champ for a reason.

Masvidal’s Takedown Stats

Masvidal has a 75% takedown defense and a 59% accuracy. Colby has a 46% accuracy and 72% defense. Colby’s stats were crushed by the Usman fights, where he attempted and failed some 11 attempts. Colby has gathered forty takedowns in his last eight fights alone, and sixty in his UFC career. 
Masvidal has given up 27 takedowns in the UFC since 2013. Nearly all of his losses involve takedowns and heavy ground control, except his robbery via Al Iaquinta in 2015. 
Masvidal will struggle against the takedowns of Covington, and you only get one flying knee on a wrestler per career.  
Play it safe and bet a Covington money line, or risk it on the fight not going to decision prop for a +105 return. 

UFC 272 Main Event Betting Pick Wrap Up

This is one of the better hyped fights in recent memory. Perhaps because they were actual friends and business got in the way of that. There’s clearly bad blood in this fight, but I don’t see it having a toll on the outcome. 
If you’re looking for strong fights to paraly alongside this pick, check our coverage of the very one sided CES 66. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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