UFC Fight Island Betting Pick: Tom Aspinall vs Alan Baudot

This weekend on Fight Island, fans get a second chance to see the hyped Tom Aspinall go to work.

In his first UFC fight against the worst looking Jake Collier we have ever seen lasted a whole 45 seconds.

I thought he looked great in the striking department and people are forgetting that this man is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.

Not just any black belt, though…

No.

It wasn’t some gift to ward off the lay and pray artists.

Tom’s dad is an academy owner.

AspinallBJJ.com.

The school started out as a catch wrestling and then an Olympic wrestling club and then began to partner with Team Kaobon and her we are.

Tom’s father is a successful BJJ school owner and black belt.

I have a feeling both men are about to get a lot richer, though.

Tom spars with the likes of Tyson Fury.

Yes, the heavyweight boxing champion of the world.

Remember him?

I know his last fight was in February and anything before May sounds like years ago but he’s pretty good with his hands.

He’s a black belt who grew up in his father’s academy.

I’ve been around a lot of these places and as you might guess, the coach’s son is always a tough out.

I have seen some instances where it can get to their head but that doesn’t appear to be the case with Tom so we won’t even speculate.

Aspinall is huge, appears to be in tremendous shape, has fast hands, and grew up wrestling and tapping people out.

Sounds like a problem to me.

His opponent is a short notice UFC debut.

Alan…

Alan…

Alan!

Alan!!

You guys remember the prairie dogs, right?

I was just making sure Alan Baudot was still around after I’ve been doing nothing but praising his opponent.

Alan The Black Samurai Baudot trains out of his home country of Paris, France at the place to be in La Republique, the MMA Factory.

He has the opportunity to work with both Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane.

You don’t get much better than those two in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division.

This is an interesting matchup between a couple of dangerous European heavyweights.

Tom Aspinall Alan Baudot
Fight Record: 8-2 Fight Record: 8-1
Age: 27 Age: 32
Height: 6’5” Height: 6’3”
Reach: 76” Reach: 79”
Stance: Orthodox Stance: Orthodox
Average Fight Time: 0:45 Average Fight Time:
From: Liverpool, England From: Lyon, France
Camp: Team Kaobon Camp: MMA Factory

Alan Baudot has some crazy long arms and surprising quickness.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Tom Aspinall show us some of his ground game.

I think he will be okay on his feet against Alan but these two men are large heavyweights who can both end the fight with one shot at any time.

Alan is 6’5”.

BetOnline.AG has the betting lines for us this week.

Let’s take a look at those, map out a path to victory for each fighter, and make our prediction for Tom Aspinall vs Alan Baudot.

Moneyline

  • Tom Aspinall -450
  • Alan Baudot +350
Round Total

  • Over 1.5 (N/A)
  • Under 1.5 (N/A)
Decision Prop

  • Fight goes (+285)
  • Fight doesn’t go (-245)

As you can see here Tom is a massive favorite.

I understand it to a point but (-450) against a fighter with one loss who trains with two of the best heavyweights on the UFC roster is pushing it.

Baudot has a reach advantage also.

Let’s look at how Alan made his way to his UFC debut coming up on Fight Island this Saturday.

He began his career in Japan where you know he had the size advantage on nearly all of his opponents.

He’s no Bob Sapp or anything but come on.

In the Summer of 2007, he is 6-0 against all Japanese fighters and he figures, hey why not fight another natural heavyweight?

Dalcha Lungiambula put that man to sleep with a perfectly timed shot as Alan was throwing a punch himself.

Please Note:
Those are always the worst because your weight transfer is interrupted and you’re getting hit harder than if you would’ve never thrown a strike yourself.

Screw this. Back to Japan.

First round TKO win for Alan, yay!

His opponents in Japan had a combined record of 40-47 and they had much naturally smaller bone structures.

Next up was Todd Stoute who submitted Baudot with a rear naked choke.

This was later overturned due to a positive cannabis test from The Black Hulk, Stoute, not to be confused, of course, with Baudot, The Black Samurai.

That was in April of last year so maybe my man has taken this 18-month layoff and caught up his MMA game to his elite frame.

There will be rust, though.

I was just making that point in another article regarding Julianna Pena and Carlos Condit in their fights last weekend.

Carlos had a much weaker opponent and he was able to dance circles around the slothy Court McGee but Julianna fell to that guillotine in the third round.

Both of them lost the first round of their fights, though.

I expect the same from Alan.

Tom fought just recently too.

Let’s look at those paths to victory for each fighter.

Path to Victory

Tom Aspinall

I think Tom can get this one done any way he wants. The key for him will be not over-throwing his punches. That’s something I don’t like that I see from him far too often.

On the regional scene, fighters can get away with such errors but at the highest level of heavyweight fighting, not today brother.

Seeing as The Black Samurai was submitted by rear naked choke in his last fight, Tom will probably be best served to get this fight to the mat where he can either pound out, submit, or control his opponent for a decision win.

Alan Baudot

Alan has a puncher’s chance in this one.

I believe his best strategy will be to keep this fight at range and be picky when it’s time to explode because he has a very dangerous man standing across from him.

Defend the takedown, don’t get hit with big shots, use your jab and front kick, and hopefully win a decision on the judges’ scorecards.

Prediction

I think Tom Aspinall gets it done on Saturday.

No way in hades I’m paying his price tag, though, at least not the moneyline.

Where is his inside the distance line sitting right now?

(-185)…

Wow, that is expensive as well.

I think everyone believes he will get the knockout or TKO.

I don’t know, though.

Tom has the grappling credentials.

Some folks might say to not show your cards unless you have to but mind games are a big part of fighting whether people like it or not.

Should he fight a riskier fight by striking with another heavyweight who is very well-trained and also has inches of reach on him?

Or, should Tom take this cat to the mat and end the fight just like that?

I’m not paying the (-185) for a finish. That is ridiculous.

His TKO line is (-145). I would sprinkle some on there maybe but we are going to do our best to Pat McAfee this betting line into the nosebleeds.

(+1000) for a Tom Aspinall submission victory! All day. Even if it’s just 10 bucks to make 100.00, you have to do it.

I promise you the betting value is there.

(+1000) or 10 to 1 odds denote an implied probability of 9%.

Tom Aspinall, heavyweight, won his second-ever professional mixed martial arts bout by heel hook.

Heel hook.

It should be noted that his only real loss is by heel hook which was also early in his career.

The other loss is a Jon Jones style defeat, yes a 12-6 elbow.

Such a silly rule.

I am taking the flyer here on a Tom Aspinall submission.

Baudot was subbed in his last fight.

10 to 1 for a black belt in BJJ to do it for a second straight time?

We probably won’t win this bet but I promise you guys that the betting line should not denote a 9% chance of Aspinall submitting Baudot.

My Pick
Aspinall Sub Victory!

In Conclusion

What else can I say?

I am a fan of Aspinall.

This could be a dangerous fight as well.

His opponent has the reach advantage, is aggressive at times, and this is a heavyweight fight.

Anything can happen at any time.

The (+1000) we are getting on Aspinall to get the sub is a fun bet.

Maybe he has his back and is pounding away but that Frenchman is as tough as nails…

Wait, kind of a hole in that story.

Okay, Baudot gets mounted and punched once and he wants out of there so he gives his back and his neck simultaneously for the mercy sub.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

Get your bets in now because this one might drop a little.

10-1 is worth the punt!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.