The prop bets are back!
It has been a while for us.
Every week, we have so many fights.
I spend a couple of hours on each fight and there is a show or more every week so it’s been hard to focus on the props.
BetOnline.AG has some new ones now too.
There is even a point spread now for MMA.
More on that next week but let’s go ahead and jump into these prop bets because we have a lot of fights to discuss.
This prop will take some time to perfect but let’s have some fun with it today.
I don’t want anyone going big on any of these bets unless, of course, you want to.
Then, by all means.
Which fights are likely to end in a KO or TKO?
Tom Aspinall is a good candidate.
I know we picked him to secure a submission but that was at (+1000).
We are in the big cage, though, and that applies to all of the fights.
Sometimes, the bigger Octagon can lead to a finish and sometimes not.
If a distance striker is fighting a lay and pray guy, then someone betting the over would want the big cage so the knockout artist has time and space to paint.
Tom Aspinall is (-190) to get a TKO finish. I think that’s ridiculous but apparently, that outcome has about a 65% chance of happening.
When you think of the other possibilities, it’s hard to get behind that number.
Both Edson Barboza and Amirkhani are finishers.
SPINNING. WHEEL. KICK.
🇧🇷 @EdsonBarbozaJR is back this Saturday!
— UFC (@ufc) October 8, 2020
I think between this fight and the Aspinall scrap, we have a solid 1 knockout.
While I don’t think Cory Sandhagen will actually knock out Marlon Moraes, he does have a decent chance of wearing him down with pressure and getting a TKO that way.
Zalal and Topuria are both gamers but the Moroccan Devil said he is coming for fighters’ lungs.
He knows he can’t match the power with Topuria and I think Youssef is the better overall mixed martial artist and will find a way to avoid the fight within the fight.
- Topuria looks like the more dangerous striker and grappler but Zalal moves so well in a big Octagon.
- Tom Breese could get KB Bhullar out of there but the guy is undefeated so it’s hard to predict such an occurrence.
- Tagir Ulanbekov will likely get a finish.
- I think Rothwell and Tybura will probably go the distance.
- The ladies will likely do the same or there will be a submission.
- Nascimento will probably go for the submission when he hopefully gets Chris Daukaus to the mat.
I just watched the weigh-ins and staredowns, by the way, and Nascimento weighed in at the heavyweight limit of 265 so he likely cut a good chunk of weight.
He was kinda flabby but so was his opponent who only tipped the scales at 225.
That means Rodrigo is at the very least, 40 pounds heavier.
Assuming he cut 20 which isn’t that much for someone his size and you have a 60-pound difference.
I do like the speed advantage and boxing skill of Daukaus along with his confidence.
It’s gonna be tough to get a world champion grappler off of your chest, though, when they outweigh you by 60 pounds.
I just put in a parlay for Nascimento, Aspinall, and Ulanbekov. It was (-105).
How many subs?
We only need 3 to go over.
I just mentioned Nascimento.
Tagir could go either way, sub or TKO.
- His opponent, despite the Brazilian lineage, has been subbed a couple of times recently.
- Tagir’s last 3 finishes came by way of tapout so we can’t ignore that possibility.
Omar Morales is a BJJ black belt fighting a reformed kickboxer.
Aspinall is another black belt.
Topuria has lethal chokes.
Amirkhani could catch Barboza dry with his patented anaconda choke.
I am definitely going over 2.5 on the subs.
Performance of the Night
|Aspinall: +125||Zalal: +1000|
|Sandhagen: +200||Cortez: +1000|
|Nascimento: +400||Perez: +1200|
|Ulanbekov: +400||Amirkhani: +1200|
|Barboza: +400||Chikadze: +1200|
|Topuria: +400||Buckley: +1400|
|Kasanganay: +500||Baudot +1400|
|Breese: +600||Tybura: +1400|
|Rothwell: +700||Silva: +1600|
|Moraes: +700||Bhullar: +1600|
|Du Plessis: +800||Daukaus: +1600|
|Kelley: +850||Egger: +2000|
|Morales: +900||Al Qaisi: +2200|
This is kind of a shot in the dark, obviously.
But a fun bet, I think.
We will have to find the value somewhere in the middle of the board.
Ulanbekov and Topuria aren’t bad at 4 to 1 but there are 13 fights scheduled which means there are 26 possible winners of this bet.
I want more than 4 to 1.
Omar Morales at (+900) looks good.
I’m going with Makwan, though.
Get a step-by-step look at how ‘Mr. Finland’ @MakwanAmirkhani locks in a choke 🐍
— UFC (@ufc) October 9, 2020
I think winning performance of the night is partly due to fighting a good opponent.
Not many people are giving the Finn a chance here against the Brazilian kicking machine.
He’s gon’ be kicking, alright.
Kicking his legs to get out of that anaconda.
These are for fun, guys.
Don’t go crazy especially picking the performance of the night.
That one is plain and simple just for fun.
I gave you one worth more than 10 to 1 so you can pick a couple of your own and you might have a good shot at one hitting.
This is because a fighter can have a great chin but just get overwhelmed with a barrage or flurry and the ref calls the fight.
It’s tough but I really like the parlay I left for you guys and the under 2.5 subs.
You can call those two official plays and the other two for fun.
Enjoy the fights and get your bets in directly from this article over to BetOnline.AG to make your play and cash out in a matter of hours.