UFC Fight Island Prop Bets and Predictions

The prop bets are back!

It has been a while for us.

Every week, we have so many fights.

I spend a couple of hours on each fight and there is a show or more every week so it’s been hard to focus on the props.

BetOnline.AG has some new ones now too.

There is even a point spread now for MMA.

More on that next week but let’s go ahead and jump into these prop bets because we have a lot of fights to discuss.

Total Knockouts

Over 4.5 KO’s:
-135
Under 4.5 KO’s:
+105

Total knockouts…

This prop will take some time to perfect but let’s have some fun with it today.

I don’t want anyone going big on any of these bets unless, of course, you want to.

Then, by all means.

Which fights are likely to end in a KO or TKO?

Tom Aspinall is a good candidate.

I know we picked him to secure a submission but that was at (+1000).

I still think he is most likely going to TKO this guy.

We are in the big cage, though, and that applies to all of the fights.

Sometimes, the bigger Octagon can lead to a finish and sometimes not.

If a distance striker is fighting a lay and pray guy, then someone betting the over would want the big cage so the knockout artist has time and space to paint.

Tom Aspinall is (-190) to get a TKO finish. I think that’s ridiculous but apparently, that outcome has about a 65% chance of happening.

When you think of the other possibilities, it’s hard to get behind that number.

Both Edson Barboza and Amirkhani are finishers.

I think between this fight and the Aspinall scrap, we have a solid 1 knockout.

While I don’t think Cory Sandhagen will actually knock out Marlon Moraes, he does have a decent chance of wearing him down with pressure and getting a TKO that way.

Zalal and Topuria are both gamers but the Moroccan Devil said he is coming for fighters’ lungs.

He knows he can’t match the power with Topuria and I think Youssef is the better overall mixed martial artist and will find a way to avoid the fight within the fight.

  • Topuria looks like the more dangerous striker and grappler but Zalal moves so well in a big Octagon.
  • Tom Breese could get KB Bhullar out of there but the guy is undefeated so it’s hard to predict such an occurrence.
  • Tagir Ulanbekov will likely get a finish.
  • I think Rothwell and Tybura will probably go the distance.
  • The ladies will likely do the same or there will be a submission.
  • Nascimento will probably go for the submission when he hopefully gets Chris Daukaus to the mat.

I just watched the weigh-ins and staredowns, by the way, and Nascimento weighed in at the heavyweight limit of 265 so he likely cut a good chunk of weight.

He was kinda flabby but so was his opponent who only tipped the scales at 225.

That means Rodrigo is at the very least, 40 pounds heavier.

Assuming he cut 20 which isn’t that much for someone his size and you have a 60-pound difference.

I do like the speed advantage and boxing skill of Daukaus along with his confidence.

It’s gonna be tough to get a world champion grappler off of your chest, though, when they outweigh you by 60 pounds.

Good luck.

I just put in a parlay for Nascimento, Aspinall, and Ulanbekov. It was (-105).

Bonus Pick: Nascimento, Aspinall, Ulanbekov (-105)
Pick Over/Under TKO’s
Under 4.5

Total Submissions

Over 2.5 Submissions:
-135
Under 2.5 Submissions:
+105

How many subs?

We only need 3 to go over.

I just mentioned Nascimento.

Tagir could go either way, sub or TKO.

  • His opponent, despite the Brazilian lineage, has been subbed a couple of times recently.
  • Tagir’s last 3 finishes came by way of tapout so we can’t ignore that possibility.

Omar Morales is a BJJ black belt fighting a reformed kickboxer.

Aspinall is another black belt.

Topuria has lethal chokes.

Amirkhani could catch Barboza dry with his patented anaconda choke.

I am definitely going over 2.5 on the subs.

My Pick
Over 2.5

Performance of the Night

Aspinall: +125 Zalal: +1000
Sandhagen: +200 Cortez: +1000
Nascimento: +400 Perez: +1200
Ulanbekov: +400 Amirkhani: +1200
Barboza: +400 Chikadze: +1200
Topuria: +400 Buckley: +1400
Kasanganay: +500 Baudot +1400
Breese: +600 Tybura: +1400
Rothwell: +700 Silva: +1600
Moraes: +700 Bhullar: +1600
Du Plessis: +800 Daukaus: +1600
Kelley: +850 Egger: +2000
Morales: +900 Al Qaisi: +2200

This is kind of a shot in the dark, obviously.

But a fun bet, I think.

We will have to find the value somewhere in the middle of the board.

Ulanbekov and Topuria aren’t bad at 4 to 1 but there are 13 fights scheduled which means there are 26 possible winners of this bet.

I want more than 4 to 1.

Omar Morales at (+900) looks good.

I’m going with Makwan, though.

I think winning performance of the night is partly due to fighting a good opponent.

Not many people are giving the Finn a chance here against the Brazilian kicking machine.

He’s gon’ be kicking, alright.

Kicking his legs to get out of that anaconda.

My Pick
Amirkhani

In Conclusion

These are for fun, guys.

Don’t go crazy especially picking the performance of the night.

That one is plain and simple just for fun.

I gave you one worth more than 10 to 1 so you can pick a couple of your own and you might have a good shot at one hitting.

Please Note:
As for the KO’s and subs, I feel a little better about the over 2.5 subs than I do the under 4.5 TKOs.

This is because a fighter can have a great chin but just get overwhelmed with a barrage or flurry and the ref calls the fight.

It’s tough but I really like the parlay I left for you guys and the under 2.5 subs.

You can call those two official plays and the other two for fun.

Enjoy the fights and get your bets in directly from this article over to BetOnline.AG to make your play and cash out in a matter of hours.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.