UFC Fight Night 171 Betting Pick: Andrei Arlovski vs. Philipe Lins

The UFC is back in full swing as they will hold their second card in the last five days with UFC Fight Night Smith vs. Teixeira, from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. Similar to UFC 249, which was held at the same venue on Saturday, this event will feature no fans in the stands.

And while there are no fans in stands, there will be plenty of people watching from home as the card is packed with talented fighters and should be full of excitement. The card will air exclusively on ESPN+ at 3:00 PM PST. In this article, we will take a look at the betting odds for an undercard fight between heavyweights Andrei Arlovski and Philipe Lins.

Betting Odds

  • Andrei Arlovski +130
  • Philipe Lins -162

As you can see, the money line for this fight is a fairly tight one, with recent Professional Fight League tournament champion and UFC newcomer Philipe Lins, a small betting favorite over the former UFC heavyweight champ, Andrei Arlovski.

Lins was last seen fighting in 2018 when he defeated Josh Copeland for the PFL tournament championship, and he is currently on a four-fight winning streak. For Arlovski, the former champ has lost five out of his last six fight and is coming off of a first-round knockout loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

Andrei Arlovski (28-19)

The glory days are long gone for the former UFC heavyweight champion as he has fallen on hard times in recent years. After being one of the best heavyweights in the world for over fifteen years, Arlovski has now lost five out of his last six fights, and ten out of his last thirteen.

But when you look at the competition that Arlovski has faced recently, this might be a case of really tough opponents more than him falling off all that much. The losses are certainly starting to stack up, but losses to guys like Stipe Miocic, Alistair Overeem, Francis Ngannou, Josh Barnett, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik all came to championship level fighters and are nothing to be ashamed of for a guy of Arlovski’s age.

And while this recent five losses in six fights skid hurts for sure, two of those fights came in split decision losses, and all but one of them came in a decision. Outside of his last fight, where he ran into a freight train in his prime, in knockout artist Jairzinho Rozenstruik, these fights have all been competitive.

Arlovski is now on the wrong side of forty, and another loss could be the end of his illustrious MMA career, so I am certain he is going to be giving it his all in what could very well be his final fight in the UFC.

Philipe Lins (14-3)

At one time, Philipe Lins was a hot young prospect. He started out his MMA career fighting exclusively out of his home country of Brazil and was 7-0 when he was signed to Bellator in 2014. Things did not go well for Lins in the bigger promotion as he went just 3-3, and his time with Bellator included a long two-year layoff in the middle of what should have been his prime as he fought off various injuries.

After washing out at light heavyweight in Bellator, Lins found a home at heavyweight with the Professional Fighters League in 2018. Lins went 4-0 with the promotion and was crowned their 2018 heavyweight tournament championship when he won three fights in a row, all of which came by stoppage.

Lins then missed all of 2019 with yet another long injury and somehow managed to get the call from the UFC to make his debut for the world’s biggest MMA promotion at thirty-five years young. It will be interesting to see how Lins deals with the long layoff and the UFC jitters against a seasoned former champ like Arlovski.

Who Do I Like?

To put it simply, there are levels to this game. Andrei Arlovski is on one of those levels, and Philipe Lins is on a much lower one. That doesn’t mean that Lins isn’t the better fighter at this point of his career, it just means that they have both taken very different paths to where they are at right now.

Arlovski has spent the last twenty years fighting all comers in just about every major promotion in the world and has won more than his fair share of battles. He made his UFC debut way back at UFC 28 and has managed to survive several different eras of the sport.

His collection of wins includes wins over Travis Brown, Tim Sylvia, Fabricio Werdum, Ben Rothwell, Roy Nelson, Bigfoot Silva, and Frank Mir. If you can say you beat Andre Arlovski, you can confidently say you were a big-time MMA fighter.

Philipe Lins has fought just six times in the last six years, with three of those fights coming in 2018. When you look at his record, it isn’t full of former MMA greats like Arlovski’s record is, it’s a bunch of small show has-beens and never was-es. He hasn’t had a single fight against a main event caliber fighter in his entire career, and while his 14-3 record might look great on the surface, it is bloated with wins over nobodies.

The Bet

Lots of very good fighters lose their first fight in the UFC. It is just very hard to adjust to the highest level in the sport, and most guys really struggle in their debuts. And the vast majority of those guys aren’t making their debut at 35-years old after a 17-month layoff. After setting Arlovski up against a who’s who of fighters for decades, it looks like Arlovski is finally getting to fight a fight that he has a real shot at winning.

This fight is going to remain standing as both guys like to stand and bang. The majority of Lin’s wins have come via knockouts, and I would think that he is going to be headhunting against a guy that never had a great chin, despite all the accolades he was able to compile during his career, in Arlovski.

But despite Lin scoring a bunch of TKOs, he doesn’t really have great one-punch power, and his stand up is fairly sloppy. He has benefited greatly from fighting against low level competition for the entirety of his career.

I think Arlovski is going to be getting the best of things on his feet, and for that reason, I think he wins the fight.

While I think Arlovski has the better standup game, he doesn’t really have much of his signature power left, and as a result, his fights had gone the distance in eight straight fights before getting knocked out in his last bought. The last time Arlovski knocked a guy out was in May of 2015, when he knocked out Travis Browne at UFC 187.

I think that Arlovski uses his knowledge and experience to fight a very safe fight, where he darts in and out, getting the best of some limited exchanges, and wins a close decision. Lin has never shown an ability to win on the big stage, and I think that between the long layoff and mediocre boxing, he gets outpunched and outpointed.

While I see a play on Arlovski at +130 as a bet that has significant value, I am going to make my play on Arlovski winning this one by decision, which shows outrageous value at +300. It might not be pretty, but I think the former UFC heavyweight champ shows why he is still fighting in the big time after all of these years and finds a way to send Philipe Lins back to the PFL.

The Bet
Andre Arlovski By Decision
+300
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL