UFC Fight Night 171 Betting Pick: Drew Dober vs Alex Hernandez

Drew Dober is a killer! Boy, did he help some people lose money the last time he set foot into the Octagon!

Everybody I know including some top MMA handicappers were ALL OVER Nasrat Haqparast. I can’t tell you how many times I heard that name.

He trains at Kings MMA under Rafael Cordeiro and is like a smaller Kelvin Gastelum…” Maybe Nas just wasn’t in a New York State of mind during his fight camp.

It’s possible the Afghani American began to believe his own hype but I think he fought another powerful striker and it was just Drew Dober’s night.

I gave Joe Rogan a hard time for not being as sharp anymore but boy was he all over that one! He saw the betting line where it was and emphatically said Drew Dober SHOULD NOT be a 2.5 to 1 underdog.

Exactly 1 minute and 10 seconds later, the Doctor of DMT was vindicated. Drew stood over his opponent with his perfectly square jaw and smiled as big as the sun.

You may remember Alex Hernandez. He got his first mini-push by the organization when he fought Donald Cowboy Cerrone back in January of last year.

Alex talked some smack and that was a mistake. He said that Donald was old and not the fighter he used to be, and blah blah… Technically, while he may have been correct, Cerrone was still plenty good enough to finish “The Great” with a head kick.

He didn’t help his popularity much when he “won” a staring match with Francisco Trinaldo this past July. 50 total strikes landed between the two men over the 15-minute contest.

He’s not my favorite fighter right now but I will have to put my dislike aside for this pick. Drew Dober isn’t the type to stare back at you. You can stare all you want but he’s just gonna take your head off.

The online sportsbook BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us today. Let’s look at the moneyline as well as the over/under round totals and make our predictions for Drew Dober vs Alex Hernandez.

Drew Dober (-117) vs Alex Hernandez (+103)

OVER 2.5

If we’re looking at common opponents, Beneil Dariush submitted Drew Dober and was TKO’d by Hernandez. Unfortunately, though, MMA math is not lawful in nature.

Money has come in on Alex here. I guess the takedown threat is there.

Alex Hernandez is a fighter who has proven he couldn’t care any less about putting on a show for the fans. Maybe he is snakebit now after the Cerrone fight. He never really seemed like much of a gamer to me. I watched the staredown for this fight about an hour ago and boy was there a difference in their jaw sizes.

I have always paid attention to this kind of thing. Part of it is because I have a tiny jaw and in the fight game, this isn’t a plus. It took about 30 years but the beard helps a lot. Perception is 9/10 of the law, they say.

Here is a quick little video of the socially intimate staredowns from just after the weigh-ins.

Marvin Vettori is talking smack because Karl Roberson missed weight but didn’t even bother using the extra 2 hours. Jeremy Stephens pulled the same bs just a few days ago. He was more than 4 pounds over and didn’t even try.

Roberson, who formerly fought at light heavyweight, was just 1.5 over the limit. That’s doable in 2 hours but it would likely compromise his performance the next day.

His opponent was saying that he was already broken because he didn’t want to cut any more weight even though he had plenty of time. I don’t think that is necessarily true. Fighters who miss weight end up winning the next day about 66% of the time.

It’s a calculated move and they are playing the system. I expect there might be some repercussions on the way but right now, the organization wants nothing more than for things to go smoothly.

I have already picked Vettori and I’m sticking with him here. Roberson definitely has a couple of different routes to victory but I believe Vettor, who nearly beat Israel Adesanya, will be able to impose his will.

Back to Our Betting Pick Today

My Pick

In Conclusion

Who doesn’t like a good scrap between a couple of men who like to push forward.

Hernandez wants to push his opponents back to the cage where they can’t circle away from a takedown. I think he thought he could be an aggressive striker also but he underestimated the UFC level. This is the big leagues.

One thing Justin Gaethje talked about before and after his big win at UFC 249 over Tony Ferguson was that his feet put him in position to score. His coach, Trevor Wittman, is a genius.

I think Drew Dober lands some nice shots and pushes Alex back and out of his game.

  • If you can live bet this one, I would wait until about 1 minute into the fight and see who is pushing who back.
  • If Dober easily stuffs the first takedown attempt from Hernandez, hit him with some cash.

Enjoy the fights, guys!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.