UFC Fight Night 174 Betting Picks: Shogun Rua vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 3

Hey guys, I hope everyone is staying cool out there.

I honestly can’t feel a thing.

One year in Southeast Asia, many times with no aircon, has left my blood thicker than a Snicker.

It’s 99 outside and humid and it’s like, eh.

Don’t let me discourage you from traveling there, though. Some smart but adventurous travel in SE Asia will likely shift your perspective for the better!

I do believe that if I were over in Abu Dhabi right now, though, I would be sweating out a couple of pounds an hour. Unlike that Vegas heat, there is also humidity to deal with.

Okay, enough about the weather. I’m 38 not 68.

We have now had 4 consecutive winning nights with UFC betting.

It wasn’t by much last week but we stayed in the green.

Brett Johns ruined our parlay party with a leech-like performance against the lengthy and heavy-handed Montell Jackson.

Jackson dropped him early and had him hurt badly but made the mistake of following his opponent to the ground.

He jumped into Johns’ guard and he got tied up as Brett recovered.

Note to Montell: Next time, stand over your opponent and punch from the standing position. You have incredibly long arms and big hands.

This was the move but we all make mistakes.

Grant Dawson and Deiveson Figueredo looked great and won us some cash.

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this fight as well as the rest of Saturday night’s fight card.

Let’s take a look at the odds for the re-re-match or trilogy if you will for Brazilian MMA legends Mauricio Shogun Rua vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

Shogun Rua (-180) vs Rogerio Nogueira (+150)

Is the third time a charm for the 44-year-old “Little” Nog?

I don’t think so.

He is the underdog, though, so his side is worth the look.

I’m not going to lie to you. I wrote up a Fight Island preview a few weeks ago and this was the matchup and betting odds that stood out to me the most.

I know that both men are past their primes, far past.

Each guy has a brother who fought alongside them for much of their respective careers.

Shogun is the more accomplished Rua but Little Nog or Rogerio, not Rodrigo who is a heavyweight, is less accomplished than Big Nog.

First, let’s take a second to recognize some of the high points to each MMA pioneer’s career.


  • He won his first 8 fights in PRIDE-the now-defunct Japanese fighting organization that carried MMA during the dark years of the UFC
  • This includes TKO wins over Rampage Jackson and Alistair Overeem as well as a unanimous decision victory over Nogueira.
  • His only PRICE defeat was to a man beast, Mark Coleman, who threw around Joe Rogan once upon a time
  • Once he made it to the UFC, he fought Forrest Griffin for the title and gassed out
  • Then, he got his revenge on Mark Coleman and Forrest as well
  • He split 2 fights with fellow Brazilian, Lyoto Machida
  • Rua was fighting the best guys in the world but couldn’t compete with massive 205ers like Gustafsson and Jon Jones
  • He is 4-1-1 in his last 6, though, with another win of Little Nog and his loss to one of those massive Light Heavyweights, Anthony Smith


  • 8-2 in PRIDE with losses to Shogun and African Judoka, Sokodju
  • Started off his UFC career 4-4 with losses to Shogun, Anthony Johnson, Phil Davis, and current Bellator Heavyweight champ, Ryan Bader
  • He is 2-2 since with both of those wins coming by way of TKO over a very durable Sam Alvey and strong wrestler, Pat Cummins
  • The near 45-year-old man is still dangerous
  • Power is the last skill to diminish for a fighter

What’s the Play?

Now that we have that quick history lesson out of the way, let’s get to the X’s and O’s of this matchup for the light heavyweight bout on the 25th.

Shogun is 38, which is not good BUT…

Lil Nog is 44.

(+150) for a 44-year-old to beat a guy he is 0-2 against?

I’m gonna need more than that.

(+250) maybe.

Rua only needs two takedowns to win this fight.

Nogueira has a 60% takedown defense rate over his career.

Shogun has averaged 2 takedowns per 15 minutes over the course of his UFC career with a 48% landing percentage.

The height and reach of each guy are similar.

Lil Nog has very good boxing but I believe and it has proven true in the past that Rua can and will likely take Rogerio to the mat.

Shogun has some of the best ground and pound of all-time!

If this fight stays standing the whole time, I would cap it (-220) for Shogun.

The fact that he has before and will likely again take Little Nog down, though, makes this (-300).

That is obviously a massive edge on the sportsbooks.

I am kind of shocked really that a lot of money hasn’t come in on Rua.

Little Nog has the stopping power for sure but I will take history to repeat itself this Saturday night.

My Pick
Shogun Rua

In Conclusion

There you go, guys.

This one is pretty simple.

We don’t need to break down loads of fight tape from each combatant and speculate on how they match up.

These two have already fought twice, once in 2005 and again a decade later in 2015.

Neither fight was a blowout or finish win for Shogun but he controlled the fight on the feet, took his opponent down, and controlled him on the mat while landing hard shots.

I feel like it’s at least a 70% chance that Rua gets the win on Saturday.

That is more than enough of an edge for us to make a play.

Get your bets in now and enjoy the show from Fight Island on Saturday night!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.

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