UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Alexander Hernandez vs Thiago Moises

UFC Fight Night Las Vegas 20 is this Saturday night from the company’s now world famous Apex facility. They had barely cut the ribbons on the place and now they’re holding every fight there until June it looks like.

I suppose Florida might be possible in the near future but without a gate, Dana White likely isn’t going to do it. Jacksonville was the only other city outside of the obvious in the US to hold a UFC event in the post COVID era.

Either way, I sure am thankful for the Apex as well as the determination of Dana White.

We have another main event in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division between two contenders, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Cyril Gane. The two men have but one loss between them and that came courtesy of Francis Ngannou.

Also on the fight card are Alexander Hernandez and Thiago Moises. The former is 28 and the latter is just 25 years old, and these two are both solid but not sensational prospects in the UFC’s loaded Lightweight Division.

It looks like Hernandez has more speed, better movement, and a more accredited wrestling game.

He will probably look to use said wrestling in a defensive rather than the offensive manner in his fight with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace, Thiago Moises.

Alex has mostly had issues inside of the Octagon against high level explosive strikers which Thiago is not. The Brazilian, Moises, has a solid game that is showing improvement each time he fights but will likely be at a disadvantage standing without the wrestling prowess to get the fight to the mat.

I’ve never been the biggest fan of Hernandez but it’s awfully hard to pick against him in this spot. Let’s take a look at the betting lines provided by the fine folks over at BetOnline. They almost always have the best options for all of your UFC betting needs.

Alexander Hernandez (-200) vs Thiago Moises (+170)

The Texan Hernandez is now training out of Colorado at Factory X Muay Thai. I think that is a great move for the young man and it will likely show in his performance.

He has a distinct speed edge in this fight and I expect him to use it at length early on and often throughout the fight. I can see him spamming some takedowns towards the end of the round where he likely won’t get himself into trouble.

Fighters who are that much faster usually have that much worse cardio. It’s a fast twitch/slow twitch muscle thing. I don’t think that will be the case in this contest, though, because you have Hernandez training out of Colorado over a mile up in elevation.

On the other side, you have a guy who trains at sea level at American Top Team in South Florida but he just isn’t fast and prefers to do most of his work on the mat. The UFC really hasn’t given Thiago much to chew on in the form of a solid stylistic matchup so far in his run with the company.

He has, however, overcome the B-side and being a sizable underdog to veteran strikers, Michael Johnson and Bobby Green. Both men have great takedown defense, surely a speed advantage over Thiago but they both fell short.

That is something we do have to take into account. I just don’t think Hernandez will make the same mistakes Green and Johnson did in there. He fights very very smart and now he has one of the best coaches in the game in Mark Montoya in his corner to guide him even more.

Is he worth the investment, though? His betting odds say 66% chance of winning right now and we would have to cap him at least at 70% to get a sexy enough edge on the sportsbooks to make a strong betting play here.

I think there is a lot of fool’s gold this week and we should be sticking to mostly favorites. It’s hard, I know. Last week, we saw 6 of 12 underdogs get their hands raised last weekend but I don’t think there will be more than 3 or 4 on Saturday.

(-200) is a stretch, though, and one I don’t want to make right now. Let’s go after a method of victory prop bet for the favorite. I like him by decision and we are getting plus money which is enough for me to make the play.

I love his new coaching and they know how dangerous Thiago Moises is so I expect them to plan and hopefully execute an excellent game plan for this scrap.

(+125) is the number. I like it.

My Pick
Hernandez by Decision

In Conclusion

Alexander Hernandez might not be the world beater we thought but I still think he has the skill set to slide past Thiago Moises. Thiago looked great in his last fight spoiling a lot of parlay parties in the process.

Most everyone was on Bobby Green in that fight and I can see why but Thiago had the youth factor on his side. The older guy who is faster than you on tape isn’t THAT much quicker than you in real life.

Hernandez is just such a pure athlete and his wrestling credentials show that he has the ability to keep this fight standing where I think he wins 3 out of 4 times. Could he finish the Brazilian with strikes?

Sure. Of course. Alex put away Beneil Dariush in the first round but Benny is a guy who welcomes the trade and thrives in the fire. Moises is not that man and I seriously doubt he is going to give Alex that kind of fight.

Hopefully, Hernandez uses the side of the Octagon to his advantage on Saturday night. As long as the Texan doesn’t tire out, this is his fight to lose.

Get your bets in now and enjoy all of the scraps this weekend at UFC Fight Night Las Vegas.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.