Welcome back, guys, to another week of UFC picks.
Today, I wanted to begin with one of my most confident picks on the fight card.
Andre “Touchy” Fili is a very good all-around fighter with power on his feet and underrated wrestling…amongst other skills.
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) July 13, 2019
He has been with Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, California for nearly his entire career.
We have seen him grow up before our eyes. Coming from a home where both of his parents were violent with each other, it didn’t take teenage Andre long to fall into a violin trap of street fighting.
He moved to Sacramento as a teenager still and while still in probation, started training for his mixed martial arts career at Team Alpha Male.
The long and lean Fili has a great body for fighting and his heritage isn’t bad either with Samoan and Hawaiian blood.
His opponent, Charles “Air” Jourdain is an exciting fighter out of Quebec, Canada.
- He is only 24-years-old and is 10-2 in his 4-year professional MMA career.
Before we get to our pick, I wanted to recap our betting results for this past Saturday night.
It was my worst night of picking fights in over a year.
It wasn’t due to a lack of effort, though. I believe I was just dead wrong a couple of times, we didn’t get lucky, and a 5 feet smaller cage significantly changes a game of inches.
That’s like making an NFL football field 10 yards shorter and 10 yards more narrow.
The game is so finely calibrated already. That would change quite a bit so why not in MMA also?
I apologize for the last couple of weeks.
I don’t remember the time we had two straight losing weeks in a row.
Some of the fights went according to plan but that small Octagon is a game-changer!
It forces the action and fighters who are used to skirting the fence are now running out of room.
UFC 250 Betting Recap
We kicked the night off with a victory betting on Herbert Burns to take care of returning veteran Evan Dunham.
Evan looked good in his striking until Burns took the back with a standing body lock and quickly tripped Dunham to the ground and submitted him even faster.
Alonzo did have Devin Clark beat, though. For some reason, he kept clinching the wrestler, and every time they would break, his arms were jello.
He has a football background and football players have mostly fast-twitch muscle fibers. They don’t need much slow twitch which is responsible for endurance, squeezing, pulling, etc.
Wrestlers like Devin Clark, conversely, naturally have a higher amount of slow-twitch because of the near-constant tension of the art.
Clark is out of Jackson/Wink and Mike Winkeljohn taught me at a seminar once about training our bodies to go from a static tension to explosion immediately.
Once Devin Clark knew Alonzo had no more quickness or explosive speed, he let his hands fly for the first time in his UFC career.
I still think he doesn’t like scary exchanges and he only looked good in this fight after Menifield gassed.
Formiga got kicked in the calf about 4 times and the fight was over. Congrats to Alex Perez. He was my initial choice but I let Formiga’s experience way far too heavily and choosing Jussier was clearly not the right play.
Charles Byrd was the biggest disappointment for me on fight night. I had him in two other parlays as well as a straight pick.
I watched tape on Pitolo and Byrd. Charles looked to be the superior fighter and plenty agreed with me but it wasn’t meant to be as Pitolo got him out of there pretty quickly.
Ian Heinisch knocked out Geral Meerschaert in the first 75 seconds!
We took him to win at nearly even money which was great but also got greedy and took him to win a decision and that was a mistake.
I am not doing well at all on method victory bets.
They have been fool’s gold, at least for me.
He dominated him on the feet. Maybe Hooper takes him down and submits him in 6 out of 10 fights…
That’s what a lot of sharp bettors are telling themselves following that loss on Saturday night.
I thought the under was a good play but it was not.
Caceres was the side all along.
We got Sean O’Malley by finish and that hit so maybe method of victory isn’t that bad…
I really thought Aljo and Sandhagen would go longer than it did. The over bet there wasn’t a terrible call but we probably should have adjusted our sails with the smaller Octagon a week earlier and thus prevented some losses.
Cody Garbrandt, like Alex Caceres, was the play here.
I don’t hate my over pick because Cody was in control but not trying to finish the fight at all. He dropped Assuncao and didn’t pounce. He was cruising and focused on staying disciplined.
A 3 round dominant performance where he stayed safe and fought smart would do so much more for his game and confidence at this point in his career than a first-round KO.
He knew this. His new head coach Mark Henry knew this. Raphael Assuncao is rarely aggressive but he came after Cody at the end of the second round.
“No Love” was like “Okay, if you want it…”
— UFC (@ufc) June 7, 2020
It was cool to see and I’m very excited for his next fight but it was a tough break for us on the betting front.
Finally, we had Amanda Nunes to finish and she carried that girl for 5 rounds.
Amanda could have got her out of there several times but she chose to stay in full control, rack up some Octagon time, and win a dominant decision.
We only won about 40% of our picks.
We have to do better.
BetOnline.ag has the best UFC betting odds for this week’s Fight Night event from Las Vegas.
Let’s get to our pick for the fight between Andre “Touchy” Fili and Charles “Air” Jourdain.
Andre Fili (-220) vs Charles Jourdain (+185)
Fili opened as a (-175) favorite and as you can see, the money has poured in.
This is for good reason.
He is the bigger guy with a much longer reach.
Andre is just 8-6 in his UFC career but he has been steadily getting better with each performance.
We may actually see him at his peak for this fight.
- He has been training for 10 years now and is 29 years old.
- I don’t think we can expect him to keep making jumps in skill.
- 5 of those 6 losses were to very good competition.
Michael Johnson is up and down but has wins over some of the division’s best and he edged Andre in a split decision.
Fili also fought Max Holloway, Calvin Kattar, Yair Rodriguez, and most recently, Super Sodiq Yusuff.
Those were all losses but as I said a moment ago, he has learned and improved from each setback.
His fight IQ has gotten a lot better. He has always been a warrior and never afraid to show it but timing is everything and he didn’t always pick the best times to throw down.
Not only does he do skillful work on the feet with a good chin and solid power, now he can take his opponents to the ground too…
His opponent this Saturday night from the Vegas desert, Charles “Air” Jourdain, is a froggy little dude who is slightly undersized for the weight class.
Ready for takeoff! ✈
— UFC (@ufc) June 9, 2020
You would think a fighter who is 2 inches taller and has 4 more inches of reach would have less muscle but no.
Fili looks like he could be a weight class above Air Jourdain.
The Canadian is chinny and pushing the action so we could see a sharp counter from Fili put this guy away.
Charles likes to move around the Octagon a lot and throws a good deal of flying knees. They aren’t really to counter anything but he did use it to set up a beautiful straight left that put down Korean Superboy Doo Ho Choi.
Jourdain has shown he can be taken down fairly easily and also has been dropped by some not so powerful shots.
His stance switching is very tricky and he is still young at 24 so I expect to see a better version of Charles than we have seen before but I don’t think it will be enough to get the win over Andre Fili.
Andre fought Yusuff in his last fight and looked pretty good considering the physical and technical specimen he was facing.
Jourdain would get steamrolled by Yusuff.
Andre is a step above Charles and I think that’s why you have seen the early line movement in his direction.
(-220) is still good.
We will take Fili here and let’s also look at the round total.
Under 2.5 is (+145) over at BetOnline.ag.
While both of Jourdain’s losses were by decision, he has finished 9 of his 10 fights.
So, he gets after it.
We have the small cage too. As long as Fili doesn’t commit to a wrestling heavy gameplan, I think he will clip the Canadian on the feet.
I do believe we are getting good value here. Let’s go half a unit on the under 2.5 and 2 units on Andre Fili to get the win.
It was a rough weekend for us. I apologize again, guys.
Hopefully, some of you were able to recover on Sunday with our big NASCAR win.
This week for our UFC betting, I am going with my gut.
Lately, in attempts to catch my “line value” game up to my “eye test” skills, I focused too much on the former and missed some opportunities to win.
- Andre Fili is my gut feel.
- I watched tape and I still like Fili.
- The line movement is indicative of big money coming in early.
Big money coming in early usually means the “sharp bettors” have a good feeling, and that’s the side we are on as well.
The only question is has the line moved too far?
Once you get past a (-200) favorite, you have to win more than 2 out of 3 times at these odds to make a dime.
That means I have to cap Andre Fili at 70% to get a slight edge on the bookies and 75% to make the 2 unit play I recommend today.
I think that’s about right.
So, we make the play and over time, we should come out ahead.
Place your bet now, though, directly from this article because I don’t foresee any late cash coming in on the underdog in this fight.