UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Viviane Araujo vs Montana de La Rosa

This is a pretty good matchup here between a couple of very tough ladies.

One lady I think, though, is the better all-around mixed martial artist. The other is a specialist but specialists bring danger.

Viviane Araujo from the capital city of Brasilia, Brazil is one of the most explosive fighters in the women’s Flyweight division. She has a great jab and a powerful switch kick to the body or head.

Standing only 5’4” tall, Vivi is short for the weight class but she makes up for it with her length of 68”.

Her opponent, Texan Montana de La Rosa, will match her in the reach department and tower 3 inches over the Brazilian. Montana is a BJJ specialist with underrated wrestling.

She lacks athleticism but makes up for it by being quite technical especially with her takedowns because she doesn’t appear to be very thick in her core or very strong overall.

De La Rose does an excellent job of using her long legs to add a trip or block the knee of her opponent when she shoots in for a double leg.

This fight is such a contrast in so many ways.

Let’s break those differences down, look at the betting line for the fights, and make our predictions for the matchup between Viviane Araujo and Montana de La Rosa.

Viviane Araujo (-175) vs Montana de La Rosa (+150)

Last week was rough for the underdogs. I don’t think any dog won a fight. Zak Cummings and Poliana Viana won but their odds were virtual pick’ems.

I sprinkled a few bets on Aguilera, Kim, and Cifers who all had good enough first rounds that the favorite’s live odds were now at plus money. So I had Brady, Grasso, and Martin all at plus money.

I knew Cifers was going to be tired but I didn’t pull the trigger on Mallory Martin. Hannah would have had a 10-8 in the first so if Mallory didn’t finish her, it would likely be a draw.

Hitting live on Grasso and Brady was nice and the plus money on the clearly superior fighters was fantastic.

The online sportsbook BetOnline.AG does live betting and it is a lot of fun. You really have to do your homework ahead of time, though, because you have to make quick decisions.

One tip for you guys:

The sportsbooks almost always overvalue the round 2 winner if the fight is presumably 1-1 going into the 3rd in a 3 round fight.

Momentum is a real thing but the more you do the live betting thing, the more you realize how quickly it can shift.

Back to Vivi and Montana. Two super cool names, in my opinion.

Viviane, despite only having 10 professional MMA fights, is pushing 35 years old. That is like 38 in women’s flyweight years.

I am concerned but not that much. She is so much better athletically than Montana that I don’t believe the age will play a big factor on Saturday night.

  • My biggest concern is not Montana getting an early takedown and submission before these ladies become slippery with sweat. Araujo is a capable grappler herself.
  • My biggest worry is Vivi gassing out. We have seen her have a hard time in the 3rd round more than once but to her credit, she pushes through it.

I wish she would push a little harder in training so she wouldn’t get that tired but it’s not that simple. She’s fast. So, she’s probably not going to have the best endurance.

Only a few fighters can maintain speed while they gain endurance or vice versa. Frankie Edgar is an excellent example of one of those fighters but he is one of the best of all-time.

A well-known example of too fast for his own good is none other than the Notorious one, Conor McGregor himself. He has some of the fastest hands of all-time in mixed martial arts and it’s hard to argue for any MMA fighter since UFC 1 that has better hands than Conor.

James Toney? He did fight an MMA fight…

Back to the fight, guys, and excuse my digressions. It is a good rule to remember, though.

You see these highlights of the next big thing hype job whoever and you’re like wow, he or she is so freaking fast.

I’m betting on them!

Not so…fast…

So, I believe that Viviane is the better wrestler and capable enough grappler to keep the fight standing or get up off the bottom quick enough to stay out of subs and not lose the round.

This is a mismatch on the feet and I believe that 7 out of 10 times, Araujo gets her hand raised against de La Rosa. Hopefully, Viviane hurts her with an overhand right with that same reach but shorter. Taylor made to happen, y’all.

If this one goes to the third, it might be a sweat if Araujo gasses like she has done in the past. I like the value we get with her betting odds, though.

My Pick
Viviane Araujo

In Conclusion

You know what they say, opposites attract. These two couldn’t be any more different.

Montana is married to former UFC fighter Mark de La Rosa who is about 5’6” soaking wet so I assume Vivi is married to a basketball player.

De La Rosa is tall and slim. Vivi is short and thick in the legs, core, and shoulders.

Araujo is quite a bit older than Montana but quite a bit faster and more powerful also.

  • De La Rosa hasn’t shown to have much of a gas tank issue but as I said earlier, she isn’t fast and has a grappling base so she doesn’t have to work that hard in her fights whether she wins or loses.
  • Araujo can crack and I think she will pop the head of her opponent back and/or up in the air with her straights and if Montana leaves a window of space above her jab, Vivi is coming over the top with HEAT!

Get your bets in now and enjoy the fight on Saturday.

Just remember that if the fight is 1-1 going into the 3rd and Montana has shown any success in the wrestling department, I might bet her live to win the 3rd and the fight is the odds are right.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.