This is a really interesting fight here.
Vicente Luque has quite the resume of wins in style in his UFC career but the promotion continues to baby him along.
11-2 in the UFC after his time on The Ultimate Fighter show is pretty darn good.
His two losses were decisions to Leon Edwards who is potentially top five in the division, and Stephen Wonderboy Thompson who is a tough out for anyone and tailor-made to defeat Luque.
The only other opponent Luque couldn’t finish was Mike Perry but he finished off that schnoz pretty well, though.
— UFC (@ufc) August 11, 2019
Mike is a very very tough man and I hope he gets the help he needs. I did just read he has a kid on the way too… Call me crazy but I see child support in his future.
Back to Luque. He is a stalker with tremendous accuracy and stopping power. He keeps his hands high in his shell and doesn’t move around a lot so you don’t see him get tired very much.
Luque is very efficient.
His opponent, Randy Brown, is a big guy with a lengthy reach. Brown likes to circle his opponents landing jabs and kicks.
Circler vs stalker. Remember that and think about this fight being held in a small cage. We will come back to it in a minute.
BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us this week. Let’s make a pick for this sneaky good welterweight matchup.
Vicente Luque (-200) vs Randy Brown (+170)
I’ll be honest with you guys. I went back and forth on this one.
Luque is 11-2 in the UFC as I said so I am normally looking to play him when his name pops up on an upcoming fight card.
There is a 4-inch height differential, though, and Brown can possibly dance around the minimal footwork of Luque, mix in some cage control, and he’s a pretty solid underdog bet.
We would only need to cap Randy at 44% or +130 to bet a unit or so.
The betting line opened at (+185) for Brown and his odds were quickly bet down to (+145). At that point, the value was now on the favorite at (-172).
Now he’s back up to (-200). So we missed our opportunity at the best price for either guy. That doesn’t necessarily mean that there isn’t enough value left to make a play, though. Maybe we didn’t get the doorbuster sale but there could still be a deal somewhere.
I know I talk about cage size a lot and there is a possibility I am overestimating its effect.
- If the fight is between two flyweights who are both 5’7”, then both cages are big to them.
- If it’s two 6 footers in there or taller, a 17% smaller cage can make a massive difference, especially if the matchup is right.
Remember stalker vs circler?
Brown is a big guy and if it was his style and strength to walk down Luque, cut him off, and keep his back to the cage, I might lean the underdog’s way.
A long lanky circler has 2.5 fewer feet to work with on any given side of the Octagon and in a game of inches…
I have really been paying more attention to footwork lately especially when there is a smaller Octagon and therefore the risk of each step a fighter makes increases.
Luque had a tough time with Mike Perry because Mike stayed in his face. Vicente still landed more clean shots due to his technical ability but it was his toughness and chin that allowed that to happen.
When Vicente lost to Stephen Thomson, it was in a big cage.
Wonderboy is the king of circling, moving in and out, and not getting hit. I picked him against Luque because of that and we hit.
If these two men fought once more in a smaller cage, I definitely think it would make it more interesting.
Next time you are looking at fight tape, note which competitors consistently move forward, move backwards, or mostly circle. This along with the volume of strikes landed will tell you a lot.
(-200) is too much, though. Bet 100.00 bucks on Luque to win 50.00? Or bet the same amount of Brown to win more than 3x as much money?
If Randy stays on his front foot, he could get caught with a big shot but I think it greatly improves his chances of winning.
That isn’t how he has fought in the past so we can’t put any faith in him changing up his style for this fight. If he does, then bravo chap but I don’t see it.
Brown only absorbs 2.4 strikes per minute. That is very low and normally only strong top control grapplers can get to that number. Randy’s number comes with a lot of striking time and the number is low because he stays on the outside.
Luque doesn’t have the fastest movement so it may take a little bit for him to find his range.
The betting narrative is split on a potential winner but very strong in favor of this fight ending inside the distance.
I think Luque can maybe get a takedown or two which will likely milk some clock. Let’s take a stab here with this fight. We can get even money for the contest to go the distance.
Luque inside the distance is (+120). I like his decision line, though, at (+240) over at 5dimes.eu.
Other than the surprising hammerfist he took from Nike Price, Randy Brown has only been finished once and that was a while back by rear naked choke.
I usually try to steer clear of these method of victory betting opportunities but I think we have some really good value here going against the narrative.
Brown is pretty durable and he doesn’t get hit very much. He isn’t Nike Price. That’s for sure!
We missed the best price on both fighters and people don’t seem to be sure who’s going to win. That is more good news for a Luque decision or at least the fight making it that far.
- If Brown comes in there guns blazing, someone is going to sleep.
- If he fights like he normally has in the past, I see him landing some jabs and Luque countering with low kicks and overhand rights.
The knees of Luque will likely be nullified by the 4-inch height advantage so that’s one path to victory that probably won’t be there for the favorite.
Get your bets in now guys, and enjoy the fight!