Another week of UFC action, ladies and gentlemen!
The hits just keep on coming, don’t they? And who says you need to have children to make dad jokes, right?
We have had a very good couple of weeks betting on the UFC. We have won 7 of 8 picks. The only one that got us was the over 1.5 rounds with Ankalaev and Cutelaba. They did both start out much slower than their previous fight but the Moldovan, Ion Cutelaba, apparently can’t go longer than 200 seconds without running his head into something.
That’s okay, though. We got it at (-120) so it is what it is. Magomed Ankalaev did prove that he is on a different level than Ion.
Over the past two weeks, we have over a 100% return on our investment. We, of course, can’t keep this up but we can darn sure give it a go. I was really surprised by the betting line for the fight between Ian Heinisch and Brendan Allen.
Ian Heinisch just knocked out Gerald Meershcaert and I believe the sportsbooks have a case of the recency’s with him. He did lose two in a row before that. The KO was impressive, sure, but Brendan Allen’s last 3 wins are against better competition.
Allen is also the younger man by about 7 years. Ian is just 32, though, and we can likely expect him to look as good as he ever has if not slightly better. Ian hasn’t been training in mixed martial arts since he was a child like Allen.
Heinisch took a not so direct route to UFC stardom. More on his story in a few.
Let’s break these two down, take a look at the betting line provided by BetOnline, and make our predictions on a winner or possibly go with a round total instead.
Brendan Allen (-105) vs Ian Heinisch (-115)
The line opened at (-110) for Allen. I honestly believed I was going to look at bestfightodds.com and see that this one opened at (-140) or more for Brendan but nope.
Before we jump, let’s look at this from a stylistic perspective as well the two men’s recent fights. Then, we can make an educated assessment for this high-level UFC Middleweight war.
Let’s begin with Brendan Allen.
Born in South Carolina and raised in Louisiana, Brendan Allen began his mixed martial arts career at the age of 20. It is pretty common to see fighters rack up 2-3 losses to weaker competition when they are that young.
He lost to another competitor on this Saturday night’s card, Trevin Giles, in just his third professional fight. Eryk Anders pulled off a decision win a couple of years later in the Legacy Fighting Alliance.
6 months later, Anthony Hernandez was able to win a decision over Allen. Since then, though, he has been unstoppable, even winning and then defending the LFA World Title a couple of times. He blew through his first opponent on the Contender Series with a first-round submission.
- In his UFC debut, he takes on Kevin Holland who has been Mr post-lockdown 2020 for the company who is 4/4 this year with 3 finishes.
- Next was Tom Breese who has a ceiling higher than both Heinisch and Allen. He looked incredible in that fight finishing off the Birmingham, England native with elbows in the first round.
- Ian Heinisch was actually supposed to be his next opponent but after he pulled out for an injury, Brendan fought UFC newcomer Kyle Daukaus. That guy is very very good. Allen had some trouble but clearly won the fight.
Brendan is a strong wrestler with above-average submissions. His stand-up game is steadily improving with time and whenever you get a talent like this who is 25 or under, you have to allow for the potential for growth.
I give the edge in BJJ to Brendan here and the striking is about even. Heinisch isn’t overly skilled at throwing his bones at people. Most of his wins inside of the Octagon have come by way of grinding his opponents into exhaustion and TKO’ing from there.
I know he knocked out Meerschaert this year but Gerald is a grappler and the only other power puncher he fought was this week’s main eventer and former title challenger, Thiago Santos. GM3 was also knocked out by Khamzat Chimaev just three months later.
Ian, though, he has a pretty solid wrestling background. We faded him against Brunson because of the wrestling/explosiveness and that was the difference.
Before Ian became an international drug trafficker, he won two state titles in his native Colorado. Yes, trafficking. After dropping out of college, he was caught with over 2,000 ecstasy pills and he bounced to Amsterdam before trial.
Sorry, Dog. Better luck next time, braddah. A little bounty hunter reference there for ya. Chapman is a Colorado native I believe.
After working at a bar in Spain and sleeping on the beach for months, Ian decided to get back in the game. Then, the dude gets caught with a kilo of cocaina coming into Spain. He was jailed in the Canary Islands and directly upon arrival back in New York, he was sent to Rikers.
This guy needs to write a book, for real.
This is likely going to be a competitive fight, especially if Brendan Allen cannot take Ian down but we are betting the number here. I cap Allen at (-200), honestly. I think he wins 2 out of every 3 times these two men throw down.
A lot of people are split on this fight but Allen is 7 years younger, 3 inches taller, and has 3 inches of reach on his opponent. Not enough for you to make a play at virtually even money?
Okay. He has a 55% takedown accuracy rate. Some of the best takedown artists of all time are around 50%. Very good number.
Ian has fought some good wrestlers inside the Octagon but he has also been taken down a lot. He does a great job getting back to his feet and his opponents usually tire before he does and he wins there.
5, 4, 2, 2… Those are the number of times he was taken down in his previous 4 fights minus the KO win.
Allen is 5/9 in his UFC career. You might see 37% on ufcstats.com but he was 1/4 in his Contender Series bout which he still finished in the first round. That isn’t much of a sample size but all three guys were quality opponents. When I first heard people were picking Heinsch here, I thought it must be because he is the underdog…
Brendan is better on paper almost everywhere. His 35% striking defense could be an issue, though. That is really the only thing that has me hesitating at all.
We only need to cap Allen at (-150) to make a strong play. That is a 10% edge on the books right there. I will leave this poor deceased equine alone now.
In Conclusion
Did you know I was surprised by this betting line?
Hey, Ian Heinisch could go out there and starch the kid but Allen has never been finished so it’s pretty hard to get behind that narrative. Heinisch is a gamer and has tremendous Colorado native cardio but those are his biggest strengths along with his athleticism.
I believe Allen matches or comes close to his athletic ability and we haven’t seen Brendan with cardio issues in the past. The guy is a gamer too.
For Heinisch, he is going to have to take the fight to the youngster. They’re in the small cage and don’t think that always favors the wrestler. It favors front foot fighters and Heinisch usually lets his opponents come to him early and then he pours it on late.
I don’t think he can do that against someone as well rounded as Brendan Allen but we will see.
Either way, we have a 10% edge on the sportsbooks and that’s what matters. Maybe we lose this one but over time, we will come out ahead. Get those plays in now as the betting world might wake up and pour some money in on the kid.
