UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Vince Cachero vs Ronnie Lawrence

Ronnie who?

Y’all know Ronnie! From down ‘er in Tennessee. The fighter competing out of Nashville right now is coming off of his debut, win, and contract on Dana White’s Contender Series.

If you don’t know about this guy, Dana White had a few things to say about him after his DWCS win. The boss said “This kid is special.” Now, since this didn’t come from a sit-down with your son’s kindergarten teacher, getting told your special by the boss is a pretty rad thing.

Dana White has seen just about every kind of fighting style as well as type of human get locked inside that Octagon and it shows in how spot-on he is about his employees, well, most of the time. Dana does say a lot so there is a percentage of that he may not mean but for him to use the “S” word on a 6-1 kid from the hills of Tennessee, there must be something there.

Daniel Cormier, who was commentating the fight, raved about Ronnie Lawrence’s wrestling ability and technique. They told Ronnie about this in the post fight interview and he said well, I never wrestled in high school or college.

He said that all of the coaches he has ever had have told him he was special and I know the type.

They have the heart, the brains, and the ability to master techniques so quickly. Okay, maybe master isn’t the best word because that is going to take most anyone 10,000 reps but Lawrence sure impressed an Olympic wrestler and former UFC 2 division world champion.

Ronnie’s opponent on Saturday night in Las Vegas, Vince Cachero, won’t have a great deal of experience over his opponent. Vince has only fought inside of the UFC Octagon one time and he lost a clear decision to Jamall Emmers.

That doesn’t mean he stinks, though. Emmers is a great athlete, super long for the division, and a very accomplished wrestler. A fight is a fight and I think he has a chance to beat Lawrence this weekend so let’s take a look at the betting odds provided by the online sportsbook BetOnline and make a prediction on either a winner for the fight or possibly a round total-over/under bet.

Ronnie Lawrence (-160) vs Vince Cachero (+140)

Ronnie is such a country boy name. Whenever I return to my born hills in nearby Virginia, I have to put in rounds with a “Ronnie”. Nice guy but big, heavy handed, and always out to take one to give one.

How that helps either man very much in sparring is beyond me. I don’t think it helps either of us get better but it is what it is.

Ronnie Lawrence, though, not of Arabia, is more of a wrestle first and then takes one from top position to give out 5 or 10 more hard ones. He showed more than enough ability to get Vince down to the mat and control him there.

Lawrence is a solid prospect, comes off very calm/down to earth but still focused and fight ready. I think we are getting some super savings here on his price tag. Who remembers K-Mart’s red light specials?

Am I the only one? I don’t want the word to get back to Ronnie that I called him K-Mart but the value on his price tag does suggest otherwise.

Funny story:

My Muay Thai coach in Las Vegas never had the best English but there was ZERO filter. He thought Hooters girls were prostitutes because of their outfits and even against my suggestion not to, he asked one “How many dolla, you?”

Whenever someone had cheap gear or maybe not even cheap but boxing or MMA gear that wasn’t Muay Thai from Thailand, he called their gloves or pads “Wal Mart”. I still crack up to this day.

Ronnie Lawrence is a fighter I think we will see some special things from. I’m not fully on board the hype train but you can’t help but notice not just Dana but Daniel Cormier as well raving about him.

I think he controls Vince wherever this fight takes place and maybe even gets him out of there. I love his moneyline of (-160). Also, though, Lawrence is something like (+700) to win by submission.

There has been some money that has come in here because the line used to be up at 9 to 1 so I am not the only one who sees some value available. No, Cachero has never been submitted nor has Lawrence secured a choke or joint lock for the tap in a pro MMA fight but both men are fairly inexperienced.

A rear naked choke is the most common submission and seeing how Vince is from Hawaii, I don’t believe he is the type to just concede bottom position and accept a likely decision loss. I think he will be trying to get back to his feet and make this fight a striking battle. That is when he could give up his back and you know how it can go from there.

A decision is likely for Lawrence but for 7 to 1 in a fight where he is believed to be the superior grappler, I think we have plenty of value.

Let’s throw a 5 unit max play on Vince to get the win here. He does have something special and I think that will be more than enough to get past Cachero here.

Also, half of a unit on him to win by submission pays x7 so why not, right?

My Pick
Ronnie Lawrence

In Conclusion

Ronnie Lawrence from Tennessee is said to be special by all of his coaches and now the President of the UFC, Dana White.

My momma always told me special is as special does and I think Lawrence is going to look especially awesome this Saturday night in his official UFC debut. Vince Cachero survived against Jamall Emmers but that was about it.

Maybe he survives here but getting the submission prop at 7 to 1 for a fighter believed to be the far superior grappler is a steal! We are betting hard here, though, on the favorite so even if it’s just a cruise from top position that takes us to the scorecards, we will still have won plenty of cash on the kid from the country.

I am hearing a lot of noise this week in the UFC betting community about Ronnie as well. Everything from the small Octagon to his matchup with a bad defensive wrestler has me siding with the betting favorite in this fight.

Let’s hammer the kid from Tennessee and sprinkle some sugar onto his method of victory by submission prop bet. Wager right from this article, guys, and good luck with all your bets on Saturday night!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.