UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Casey O’Neill vs Shana Dobson

Sure, rules are rules but sometimes I feel like they are meant to be broken. Unfortunately, we can’t take that attitude into the betting game because we would get creamed after a while.

Normally, I would say to stay away from low-level women’s mixed martial arts betting opportunities because the skill gap for the ladies isn’t as large as in the men’s divisions. There are, of course, your Amanda Nunes’s and Valentina Shevchenko’s of the world but they are the outliers.

I’m talking about the difference between roughly the 12th best fighter in the division and the 25th best. I also don’t like to bet on debutants especially those with only 5 career professional wins but when that is more wins than your veteran opponent who has a record of 2-3 inside of the Octagon and 4-4 overall.

There isn’t too much to say about this fight here other than one fighter is better than the other but the more skilled woman is still just 23 years old and may have some Octagon jitters.

Let’s look at the betting odds provided to us by the good folks over at BetOnline and make a quick prediction for the fight between Shana Dobson and Casey O’Neill.

Casey O’Neill (-145) vs Shana Dobson(+125)

What a great line we are getting right here!

I really like Casey O’Neill in this spot and look, if Maria Agapova who was (-1000) or more at the time, had not completely gassed out after the first round, she was still going to dominate Shana Dobson.

Other than that, Shana has one win in the UFC and that was against Ariel Beck who is a friend of mine and now trains directly under Kron Gracie in Bozeman, Montana! Sorry, I just think that is the coolest thing in the world.

Bozeman is pretty boss but you wouldn’t think The Rio Kid would choose Montana over California, Florida, Texas, etc.

Anyways, I love Ariel but she was never quite UFC level. It is hard up there in Montana because the competition is scarce and driving to the gym 6 months out of the year can be under hazardous conditions of ice and snow.

Here is a stat for you guys and once I tell you this, I don’t think you will have any more doubts about this CHEAP (-145) betting play on the rookie, Casey O’Neill.

Shana Dobson has a 0% takedown defense percentage. And no, it’s not one of those Khabib stats because who would even try, right? Shana Dobson has had 5 opponents in the UFC and 3 of them attempted at least 1 takedown.

Those fighters were 2/2, 4/4, and 2/2. And those opponents weren’t exactly the equivalent of Kamaru, Khabib, and Curtis. Casey O’Neill has good takedowns and Shana Dobson has yet to offer up anything of a threatening nature off of her back.

My Pick
Casey O’Neill

In Conclusion

There are some variables that have me a bit worried but the sportsbooks have accounted for that by keeping Casey at an incredibly affordable “Buck 45” or (-145) for the laypers.

This was a quick case for me so I figured I would spare you guys the history lessons and just go with the facts in front of us. We have the superior fighter at a very affordable price but she is still the betting favorite so we can’t go into this with more than 1 or 2 question marks.

The big one is will the young fighter experience the infamous Octagon jitters or better yet, how bad will they be? I can see her taking a couple minutes to get her sea legs and hopefully she can do that in top position or at least with Shana up against the cage.

Dobson has okay hands and that is really the only path to victory I see for Shana other than the blazing trail of lactic acid that was laid for her in her last fight against Agapova. Another reason this fight is lined so closely is because of that night and that wasn’t Shana digging deep and making this miraculous comeback.

It was Agapova doing her best Rodolfo Vieira before it was cool. She faded almost too fast for Dobson to even take advantage as crazy as that sounds.

Good luck on your bets this weekend and I would put 2-3 units on Casey here but more or less a fade on Shana Dobson because this is likely your last chance with her as she will probably get her papers soon.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.