UFC Fight Night Las Vegas Betting Pick: Charles Rosa vs Darrick Minner

You may not be familiar with either Charles Rosa or Darrick Minner so we will touch on who these guys are and how they got here before we make our betting prediction(s).

Charles Rosa is coming off of a win against Kevin Aguilar, a bet in which we lost. Rosa looked great in that fight and Kevin was really flat. I don’t like it obviously when a fighter I bet on falls flat but it’s cap tipping time when you are simply bested by a great performance. That fight was a little bit of both but Rosa definitely grew from his loss to Bryce Mitchell in his previous matchup.

He has been around the UFC for a little while now fighting some top competition.

Shane Burgos, in my opinion, a top 5 Featherweight, put away Charles halfway through the third round but Rosa really gave an excellent account for himself up until that point. He lost a decision to Yair Rodriguez as well so there you have three top 10 Featherweights that represent 3 of his 4 losses inside the Octagon.

His other defeat was to the tricky Dennis Siver who outpointed him for a decision win in Rosa’s Octagon debut.

Darrick Minner has been fighting mixed martial arts professionally for nearly 8 years and has remained very active racking up 25 wins to go along with 11 losses. You really don’t like to see a fighter you’re betting on with double digit losses.

Please Note:
In the case of Darrick Minner, though, I can get it a little bit. He stayed so active and it’s not like he miraculously never got injured in camp. The guy just fought through a lot of those injuries. It is also his style that will lead to more losses on the record. He is a kill or be killed type of fighter. He takes more risks than the average UFC fighter, for sure. Compare him to say, I don’t know, everyone’s favorite Canadian, Georges Safe Pierre. George, who was that much better than the entire division until he wasn’t, still managed to go 5 years without finishing anyone inside the Octagon. He was the champ for the whole time as well so he has 25 minutes!

I’m not saying he couldn’t have if he tried but he chose not to because he preferred the path of least resistance and felt that a win was a win. It’s hard to argue against that. We can’t tell the man how to make money and he made a lot of it.

Darrick Minner would have to disagree, though. Conversely, the Nebraska native has had 36 professional fights over 8 years. He has gone to the judges’ scorecards 3 times. 3.

That’s the definition of a gangsta, ladies and gentlemen.

The betting odds for this one are brought to us by BetOnline.AG. Let’s have a look at those and make a play on the fight between Charles Rosa and Darrick Minner.

Charles Rosa (-194) vs Darrick Minner (+169)

If we want to make a play on Charles Rosa here, we need to confidently say that we think he will win 7 times out of ten that these two men get after it. If Rosa was a weak defensive grappler, then I would worry here a bit more but I think he matches up very well with Darrick Minner.

Charles Rosa Grappling

Rosa is very cool and calm in there no matter if he is fighting a massive submission threat or a KO artist. We have seen this on multiple occasions as well and inside of the Octagon. Charles has some very high level experience coming into this fight.

Darrick, with his 36 professional fights compared to just 17 from Charles Rosa, of course, has the overall experience advantage, albeit outside of the UFC. Only 2 have been inside of the Octagon and he was gifted a neck in his last bout against TJ Laramie.

The no-neck illusion named TJ Laramie shot in early and Darrick snatched him up. In Minner’s debut, though, he went up against a better prospect in Grant Dawson and that strategy didn’t work out for him.

Laramie is a good prospect. He will grow from this one. It happens to all wrestlers early in their career. They get guillotined by the Brian Kelleher types they know they can take down so they go in for the single or double sloppily.

Darrick Minner Submits TJ Laramie

You don’t have to worry about that, though, from Rosa here because he is likely going to want to keep this one on the feet and probably work that South Florida special on the peroneal nerve of Minner.

That’s what I see coming. Range and leg kicks will help to slow Darrick Minner but it’s not like the guy needs much help. He has a major cardio problem and that just adds to the list of checkmarks on the side of Rosa in this battle.

Take Rosa straight up. I would cap him at (-220) here so we have a bit of an edge but just one unit because Minner is very dangerous in round one.

Now, do we want to explore any round totals or method of victory props here?

Rosa by decision is as high as (+445) over a 5dimes.eu. It is certainly worth a stab because yes, Minner doesn’t go to many decisions, but that’s built into the price.

The (-194) favorite who usually wins by decision at this level has odds that high?

Of course. It’s because Minner is such a wildman in the striking and even more so in the grappling exchanges. Minner dos put himself in tough spots time and time again when he gets tired and he gets tired in any fight that lasts longer than 5 minutes.

The over 1.5 at 5dimes.eu is (-135). I really like that one and Rosa by submission is (+150). He has 8 of 12 career wins by submission. These two could strike the whole time, though, and the payout just needs to be higher, especially for a submission in a fight with two black belts.

My Pick
Rosa Moneyline
Over 1.5 Rounds

In Conclusion

Fun fight here, y’all!

I think Minner will come out of the gate quickly and try to catch Rosa cold and Charles will likely listen to his coaches who will tell him to weather the storm and wait to attack. Minner wants you to fall into this game of risk when he is at his strongest.

But, Charles has always showed solid fight IQ so I don’t see a reason to think he does something stupid. That’s not to say he can’t be caught but he is a capable, intelligent, well coached fighter who knows when to and when not to take risks.

Darrick Minner, conversely, is all over the place with his decision making and honestly, it’s just the nature of the beast. He is as game as they come and loves the scramble.

Very strong and explosive, many times leads to gassing out early and Darrick isn’t the poster boy for that, ehem Rodolfo Vieira, ehem. But let’s give him an honorable mention. As a fan, you have to love a guy like that but as a bettor, you want to avoid risking your money unless he is a sizable dog against someone who could be lured into a chaotic fight.

I don’t think he pays enough at (+155) against a fighter as calm, smart, and well versed in grappling as Charles Rosa.

Get your bets in now and enjoy the scraps on Saturday!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.