UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Carlos Condit vs Court McGee

Carlos Condit?! At one point, Carlos was one of my favorite fighters in the UFC.

We all hit a wall sometimes, though, and it seems as if Carlos Condit has been on the decline for years now. He is only 36, though, which is hard to imagine.

Condit has been a UFC fighter for over a decade and he was fighting in the WEC on television back in 2007 and competing professionally since ‘02. That’s intense.

He got his first pro fight, allegedly, at the age of 18. Many fighters lie and start before then, too. Carlos has been in there with the very best of a few different generations.

Georges St Pierre, Nick Diaz, Jake Shields, Rory McDonald, Tyron Woodley, and Robbie Lawler. That is like 4 Strikeforce champs and 3 UFC champs right there.

Without any offensive wrestling, Carlos was almost destined to be a gatekeeper.

Yes, we just saw Israel Adesanya get another knockout in his title defense over the weekend at UFC 253 and Anderson Silva is clearly the GOAT, baahhh, but these two are the exception to the rule. The vast majority of UFC World Champions have a strong to elite wrestling base.

Luckily for Carlos, his opponent this weekend, Court McGee, is not an elite wrestler nor does he have the speed or athleticism that would give an old guy with waning reflexes like Carlos a problem.

Let’s take a look at the measurables for these two veterans.

Carlos Condit Court McGee
Fight Record: 30-13 Fight Record: 19-9
Age: 35 Age: 35
Height: 6’2” Height: 5’11”
Reach: 76” Reach: 76”
From: Albuquerque, New Mexico From: Ogden, Utah
Fight Camp: Jackson/Wink Academy Fight Camp: The Pit Elevated Fight Team

These two line up pretty well. Both men are used to having a reach advantage in there but they will be even on Saturday.

When you’re taller with the same reach, your head is probably further away from your opponent than his is you so you do have an edge on the range.

With that being said, many times the shorter fighter with the same reach has advantages landing punches over the top like the overhand right.

Carlos hasn’t been getting knocked out, though, with so many losses late in his career all of a sudden like that. He has dropped his last 5 fights and 8 of his previous 10.

All of those opponents, though, with the exception of Cowboy Oliviera were once top 10 UFC fighters and mostly top 5. His TKO stoppage to Tyson Woodley was from a leg kick that blew out his knee.

Once upon a time, Court McGee was 16-3 and coming off of a win over top-five and former champ, Australia’s Robert Whitaker.

He was 28 at the time and ready to make his move toward a possible title shot. He didn’t know it at the time but he had just defeated the future 185-pound world champion in a weight class down at 170.

  • Over the next 7 years, McGee’s record of 16-3 dwindled down to what it is now at 19-9. Sure, he has been losing twice as many fights as he has been winning over a long period of time but it’s the fact that he only fought 9 times in 7 years.
  • From 28 to 35, a fighter should be competing more often than that. He has lost to some studs over that time but has also lost to some duds. He fell victim to Ben Saunders in 2017 and Killa Bee went on to lose 6 of his next 7 fights.

McGee does know how to make it ugly in there but I love the big Octagon for Carlos. He likes to stay on his bike and that matches him up well with Court who is a slow plodding fighter.

Let’s look at the betting odds provided by the online sportsbook BetOnline for this matchup between Carlos The Natural Born Killer Condit vs Court The Crusher McGee.

Moneyline

  • Condit +115
  • McGee -135
Round Total

  • Over 2.5 (-278)
  • Under 2.5 (+206)
Decision Prop

  • Fight goes (-245)
  • Fight doesn’t go (+175)

Both fighters are quite durable. I know Carlos has some submission losses as of late but I don’t think that is Court’s specialty and The Crusher has never been a knockout artist.

This one will likely go the distance but it doesn’t look like we have much value on the betting line.

I do like Condit’s moneyline, though. Carlos opened at (-140) and I think they had it right to begin with.

Luckily for us, hopefully, lol, early money came in on Court and moved the betting line to where it is now.

Path To Victory

Carlos Condit

The Natural Born Killer is going to need to stay on his bike, use that big cage to circle his opponent, and dart in with jabs and low kicks whenever the opportunity presents itself.

He likely isn’t going to hurt McGee with his hands but the possibility of a head kick or knee is there.

I think Carlos’s best bet is to circle, jab, and kick his way to a unanimous decision victory. And stay off the fence!

Court McGee

Court is gonna have to make this one ugly and fortunately for him, that’s what he does best.

He is big, strong, stiff, and durable but McGee falls short of the vast majority of UFC athletes when it comes to quickness, speed, and overall athleticism.

I can see Court keeping Carlos up against the fence for as long as the referee allows him. That is a big step, sadly, toward winning a decision in a mixed martial arts fight.

Court can do it, though, for sure.

Betting Prediction

I think Carlos wins about 60% of the time these two men fight. I will take his speed and overall depth of striking knowledge and techniques over McGee’s simple plod, clinch, hold, and bang.

We capped him at (-150). The books opened Condit’s betting odds nearby at (-140).

Now he’s a (+115) underdog.

My Pick
Carlos Condit

In Conclusion

This is a close fight so you won’t see me all-in on either guy. I just like the betting odds.

Anytime you think you have a 60/40 fighter whose odds should be somewhere around (-150) and you can get them at plus money, make that move.

This is more than a 10% edge on the books so normally I would say to place 2 units or 2% of your bankroll on this fight. That is the way you make money in the long term.

With Carlos losing 8 of his last 10 fights, though, we have to be smart. I like the edge but I don’t love the fighter so 1 unit it is.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.