UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Blaydes vs Lewis

Fans and bettors have been waiting for this fight for a long time. Think about all of the parlay cards that have Curtis on there as their anchor!

It’s no secret that Blaydes matches up about as well as anybody ever has against Derrick Lewis minus maybe Daniel Cormier. But even then, DC had to deal with a size disadvantage against The Black Beast.

Curtis Blaydes won’t have to worry about that as he will hold a 1-inch advantage in both height and reach. I could go in depth about both fighters but with this being the main event as well as a fight that has been hyped and advertised ever since the Fall of last year.

This one is pretty clear. Curtis Blaydes in all likelihood will be able to take down Derrick Lewis at will and the overweight Lewis will eventually tire out and that’s when I think Blaydes will be able to put him away with some ground and pound or a choke.

The betting odds have nearly doubled for the favorite, Blaydes, and it’s clear to see why. Let’s look at the current betting odds for Lewis vs Blaydes and hopefully find some value left over from all the hammering of Blaydes’ moneyline.

Curtis Blaydes (-470) vs Derrick Lewis (-370)

Om, no. I heard of some folks who got Curtis as low as (-250) but that’s in the past. What do we have available that’s actually affordable today?

BetOnline has the round total set at 1.5 and the over is juiced to (-200). I certainly think Derrick can last for 7 minutes and 30 seconds. The over 2.5 is a pretty (+110) but I feel like that may be a reach.

Derrick Lewis isn’t going to offer very much off his back and we will hopefully already be easily in the green for the night by the time the main event comes around. The Black Beast is strong, though, and I think that strength and all the extra work he has done for this camp will allow him to hang around hopefully until the 3rd round.

Now, we have the chance here to potentially make some money on a Curtis Blaydes method of victory betting line. You can take him to win by TKO for (-150) which sounds pretty solid but any method of victory that isn’t plus money better be a pretty darn sure thing.

The line that is off is the submission prop. Curtis by submission is (+950). That is absurd!

I know that Derrick uses his opponents’ submission attempts to get back to his feet but I don’t think Curtis will go for the choke until he is on the man’s back.

I say put two units on this one going past 1.5 rounds and half of a unit on Curtis by submission. Daniel Cormier submitted Derrick and there is no way the guy is some BJJ wizard. Blaydes, however, does not have a submission win on his professional mixed martial arts record.

That’s fine. I’m sure he would like one and Derrick does have the heart to hang in a fight for a while but I think if Blaydes has him flattened out, he will give his neck to spare his brain. Let’s hope Curtis obliges.

My Pick
Blaydes by Submission
+950
Over 1.5 Rounds
-200

In Conclusion

Hopefully, this one is an exciting fight! It’s the main event and will likely be going on after 14 or 15 fights that are on the docket at the moment.

Well, we want it to be exciting but only after the first 7:30! These two are very very big men and inside of the small Octagon, I don’t know how long a striking battle would last. There simply isn’t anywhere to go for either 6’4” 250+ pounds fighter.

I feel that Blaydes will be dominant and I am confident in his fight IQ enough to back him to close the distance, obtain the clinch, and get Derrick Lewis down to the mat. I trust The Black Beast Lewis to stick around for a little while.

I think he succumbs to the ground and pound attack of Blaydes sometime in the 3rd round. Let’s just hope that Curtis takes his time while doing so and also secures the first submission of his professional career.

All those takedowns and no submissions?! I think we know what our president would have to say about that.

Come on, man!!!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.