UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Greg Hardy vs Marcin Tybura

Greg Hardy is getting a step up here with a matchup against the resurgent Marcin Tybura. The Prince of War Greg Hardy is a fighter I wanted to hate, and I did for a while, and it cost me because he has been winning most of his fights.

I wasn’t silly enough to pick him to beat Alexander Volkov, though, but I have missed out on some opportunities to make a play on the former NFL star. He opened at (+115) against Juan Adams…That was free money right there.

It’s no secret that the UFC is bringing Greg along rather slowly, but that doesn’t mean he is learning slowly.

We haven’t seen a lot of different techniques from Greg, but that’s fine. That’s better, in my opinion, than him trying out all of his new tricks inside of the Octagon.

  • Greg throws a jab and a straight right, and honestly, not that much else. He is such a good athlete that if he just stays in his frame where he is athletically superior, that’s all he is going to need to succeed. Well, that is, outside of the top ten of the UFC’s Heavyweight Division.
  • His opponent, Poland’s Marcin Tybura is a medium-sized heavyweight and relies on volume punching and clinching to wear on his opponents. He has historically struggled with fighters with good power.

This is a fun matchup and also interesting, but I do feel like I have a good read on it.

The online sportsbook BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us this week. They almost always have the most valuable lines and are usually the first to release them in the United States as well. Remember to bet directly from this article, and let’s get to our pick!

Greg Hardy (-122) vs Marcin Tybura (+102)

The books opened this one with Greg as a slight underdog, and now it has flipped. This is a tough fight to call because Tybura isn’t afraid to get in the face of his opponents, and he puts a pace on these guys that a lot of UFC Heavyweights can’t handle.

And how can we forget Inhalergate?

Greg used an inhaler in his fight against the Combat Wombat, had to say it, Ben Sosoli. Greg won the fight, but it was soon overturned to a no contest. The nerve of this guy. Apparently, his coaches at American Top Team, one of the best gyms in the world, thought it was cool too.

Well, not so much. Add that to the Crowder fight where Greg was disqualified for kneeing a grounded opponent in the head, and his record is not 7-2, it’s 9-1. Hardy has been very impressive and always making some kind of noticeable small stride every time he steps into the Octagon.

Small incremental improvements over time. That’s the way.

Please Note:
We haven’t said much about the Pole, Marcin Tybura. His #1 path to victory will be wearing down the bigger more explosive and powerful man then taking advantage of him. If you try to go at Greg in the beginning, I think you’re going to run into a jab that has nearly 300 pounds behind it.

Marcin’s previous 3 losses all came by way of TKO. His chin is suspect, and I think Greg will find it. There is always the possibility that Tybura tires out Greg, steals a decision, or gets him out of there in the 3rd round.

I’m on the side of Greg Hardy here, though. He is younger in the sport. Unlike the Pole, we haven’t seen Greg put down and away with strikes. Heck, we haven’t seen him submitted yet.

  • Hardy is 9-1 essentially with a decision loss to a top ten fighter in Alexander Volkov.
  • Tybura’s best win of his career was against a 39-year-old Andrei Arlovski. His second-best win is either against Sergei Spivak, literally a skinny heavyweight, or a 39-year-old Ben Rothwell.

Unless the pace breaks Hardy, I’ve got the Prince of War to get the win here.

No need for method of victory props. Hardy fights so reserved that he may go to more decisions than he really has to, but he is also keeping his risk level very low.

(-122) is a great price!

My Pick
Greg Hardy

In Conclusion

Who is going to get exposed here? Marcin Tybura is supposedly hot on the comeback trail with three straight wins. Yes, he has been winning, and I have been wrong picking against him twice.

You would think I would want to bet on the guy now but not against the younger, bigger, faster, more powerful, more athletic fighter in Greg Hardy. I feel like about 1 out of 3 times, Marcin takes Greg Hardy into the deep waters and maybe drowns him there.

66% of the time, though, I see Greg keeping his range, landing his jab, and in the later rounds beginning to lead with his straight right. Gets em every time…

I hear it all the time. Stay behind your jab, and that is good advice, but you know what’s bad advice in martial arts and fighting? Words like “never” and “always”. Don’t always stay behind your jab. Those people are so predictable, and as much as I hate to admit it, some of the striking in the UFC is below Amateur Muay Thai. Jab until a pattern is set. That’s fine. Then break the pattern.

Greg Hardy doesn’t get enough credit for being a smart fighter. You head a lot about his size and athleticism coming over from the NFL but not his brain.

I think he fights very intelligently and also efficiently. He isn’t out there going for the kill after rocking an opponent once. Sure, maybe he could, but he is wise to keep some gas in the tank.

Get your bets in as soon as possible, team, because I think this line will keep heading in the same direction, and The Prince of War will be a (-150) favorite or more by fight time.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.