UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Jack Hermansson vs Marvin Vettori

Another main event shakeup after another main event shakeup after another…

We ended up with a pretty intriguing matchup, though, and according to the sportsbooks as well as bettors, a very close one.

Jack Hermansson was originally slated to fight Liverpool’s Darren Till in Saturday night’s main event, but The Gorilla was hit with the injury bug, and Kevin Holland, Mr. Post-Lockdown 2020 himself, steps in with a giant step up in competition.

You have to love Kevin Holland. He will fight anybody at any time. Unfortunately, though, Kev got the COV. I have to be honest, though. I wasn’t overly excited for that matchup. I was overly excited to bet on Jack Hermansson, though.

(-240) was not that expensive for Jack to beat Holland so if the fight is made again, I’m all over the Swede.

Darren Stewart took Kevin down and controlled him. Plus, Jack is on several other levels as a grappler than The Dentist. We had Kevin in that fight, and he did hang on for the win having already banked rounds 1 and 3 on the judges’ scorecards.

So, no Darren Till and now no Kevin Holland? This is after our main event was scrapped last week so we could change the channel and watch Roy Jones hug Mike Tyson. Who steps in on short notice?

The Italian Dream Marvin Vettori. The man whose claim to fame is a split decision loss to current Middleweight World Champion Israel Adesanya. Not bad, really, but if you go back and watch the fight, it was a fairly clear win for Izzy.

Marvin’s style is a problem for a guy like Adesanya, though. The problem is that said style does not match up so hot with that of Jack Hermansson.

  • The Swedish submission ace loves the clinch himself and will be the bigger man in there.
  • Marvin likes to strike and may have an advantage on the feet against Hermansson, but he will be at a reach disadvantage, and closing the distance doesn’t seem like the best idea against a guy who wants to clinch and take you down.

I was pretty surprised at the betting odds when they were released by BetOnline.AG. They have moved a bit towards Jack, which makes sense, so we aren’t getting him at peak value.

What we would get, though, if we decide to bet on him is seeing the line move as far as it has and using that data to support our hypothesis.

You can do your best to get out ahead of other bettors and make a play as soon as the line is released. This is the smart move sometimes but definitely not always.

If a fighter moves from being an underdog to a favorite, you might want to make a play there.

You, of course, can’t always do that by betting. If you know your sport, have done the research, and are confident, then make the play on the most valuable betting odds that you can. This means you can’t read any live movement or even see the weigh-ins.

Let’s get to our prediction.

Marvin Vettori (-140) vs Jack Hermansson (+120)

This betting line opened up with Marvin Vettori as the (-160) betting favorite. The line as you can see has since headed south for the Italian but he remains the favorite.

You think about a guy like Miguel Baeza who was going for (-140) in some online sportsbooks during fight week and this fight is much closer! Maybe Baeza isn’t the best example because it’s his betting line that was off by the most.

I do think this weekend’s main event should be about (-160) but for The Joker Jack Hermansson. He is bigger. He is the better grappler and Marvin lacks one-punch KO power on the feet.

The threat of getting your head taken off is a real thing and Jack has been open about the fact that he kinda folds after taking a massive crack to the face. That is very very worrisome and it’s hard to tell you guys to back someone like that.

With that being said:
I don’t think Marvin has that kind of power in his hands. I mentioned also a moment ago that Marvin is at his best when he is coming forward with volume strikes that lead into his clinch game and when he gets the takedown, he is strong from the top position.

If he is able to do that to Hermansson then bravo but unless he puts one of his fists on the money and The Joker looks for a way out, I think Vettor is going to have to beat Hermansson at his own game.

And I just don’t think he is good enough to do that. Vettori matches up better with Izzy still to this day than he does Jack.

I’m getting dog money as well? Okay.

Vettori did take this on short notice but he was already training for a fight. He is still cutting his camp short and I’m not sure if the muscle endurance is going to be there. If Jack wears on him as the bigger man in the clinch, I can see Marvin slowing down.

Remember, this is a 5-round fight.

Give me the dog here!

My Pick
Jack Hermansson

In Conclusion

Saturday night’s main event isn’t the Till vs Hermansson matchup we all wanted to see. That would have been one of the most epic clashes of styles in all of 2020.

The good news is, it isn’t Kevin Holland who is replacing The Gorilla. I’m sorry he got COVID but I have a feeling he will beat it. The rest of that good news is that Marvin Vettori has stepped in to fight the Swede.

Another European battle! Get used to it, guys. MMA is spreading around the globe at a tremendous pace. We only have one champion left who was born in America! Hang in there, Stipe!

I really like Vettori and his aggression may make up for the lack of power in his fists when he tries to blitz The Joker and get him to fold. You know it’s inevitable.

Please Note:
I think that two big men like this in a small cage will lead to a lot of clinching and likely groundwork. From there, we have to go with the bigger guy to get the fight to the mat and the more decorated grappler to dominate position and possibly lock up a submission.

Vettori will have a speed advantage but outside of that, I feel like Jack is better most everywhere.

We all know that speed doesn’t mean crack spit when you’re being held up against the cage or down on the mat.

Here’s to the Joker!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.