UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Jimmy Flick vs Cody Durden

For the life of me, I can’t seem to decide which competitor’s name I like more.

Jimmy Flick is pretty sick but I don’t care if your first name is Aloysius, if your last name is Durden, you have my vote. I’m surprised Cody didn’t make his nickname “Tyler” but then again the first rule of Fight Club is…

I really like both guys! Cody is a gamer, man. He almost beat Chris Gutierrez on short notice in his UFC debut. That is saying a lot. I have high praises for Chris. He is a big guy too.

Cody was on his back the entire first round resulting in a 10-8 score. Chris settled in and took rounds 2 and 3 and we had ourselves a draw. Gutierrez, the favorite, closed as a (-330) favorite too.

I expect a better performance from Durden on Saturday. He has a completely different matchup this time around, though, against Jimmy The Brick Flick. The born and bred Sooner fighting out of Forza Combat Sports in Sand Springs, Oklahoma is a submission specialist who has been around and seems to be putting it all together.

He just turned 30 years old and his 70.5 inches of reach will serve him well in the UFC’s Flyweight Division. He is well experienced for his age with hopefully not too many miles. 15-5 is pretty good but he was finished by strikes in 4 of those 5 fights.

That is a concern, for sure, but I don’t rate Cody as a big puncher. His strength is his wrestling and that may or may not get him into trouble against Jimmy.

Will he use his wrestling or do his best to keep the fight on the feet and use his hands to get the W?

I may lean towards Cody here if we had a better read on his decision making.

I do believe that if he wrestles, he will get himself into trouble against a submission ace as experienced as Flick.

There is the possibility that Flick takes him down, though. Jimmy may not have that USA Wrestling tattoo on his shoulder like Durden but you don’t get to his level of grappling without a few leverage-based tricks up the sleeve of your rashguard.

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this fight but I want to include Bovada.LV as well. Each has notably better value on each fighter.

Let’s give those a look and make our predictions on the winner or possibly a round total for the fight between Jimmy Flick and Cody Durden.

Jimmy Flick-BetOnline.AG (-161) vs Cody Durden-Bovada.LV (+165)

It is Bovada.LV that has the odds at (+165) for Durden and (-205) for Flick. They are out there on their own, though, because every other book according to bestfightodds.com is mas o menos in line with BetOnline’s numbers.

Getting the best price may not be more important than picking the ride side but everything counts in this never-ending uphill battle with the sportsbooks.

Jimmy opened up around (-220) for this one and it has been bet down intelligently, in my opinion. I don’t know how much farther I would go with it, though, because he is a one-trick pony.

On paper, Durden is the better wrestler, the more durable fighter, and the better striker. You’re starting to see why Flick was bet down now. Jimmy is a specialist and if he puts himself in the right spot, he can get the W or possibly take his opponent down and ride out a decision.

The Flick by submission betting line is about even money so they are telling us that’s how they think he will get it done.

Where is the round total, you ask?
I’m glad you guys are seeing the progression of this process. We have the under 1.5 rounds at (+110) and the over 1.5 at (-130). That is eye-catching, yes, but I don’t want to jump too quickly. These are two 125-pound fighters and most Flyweight fights go the distance. So, if we only need it to go to the halfway mark, it’s a good play, right? Maybe.

Let’s just think about this stylistically for a moment. One guy will likely be trying to get the fight to the floor without engaging in the striking realm very much when the other one is attempting to stay up and engage with punches.

This isn’t a clash of styles where it is wrestling vs BJJ or boxing vs Muay Thai. Those guys are actively engaging in the fight within the fight.

Now, if Cody comes out there with an offensive wrestling heavy gameplan, the over 1.5 rounds may not be the best idea. We don’t have a full read on him but we do know that he trained at American Top Team for this fight and I trust the best coaches in the world to be just that.

I think it’s sprawl and brawl for the better wrestler. I think he is a live dog as well! The (+165) is pretty hot and tempting but Flick is the truth. He is 30 years old and the best version of himself.

Hopefully, the styles of the two men will lead us past the 7:30 mark because I can’t seem to make a pick on the winner.

My Pick
Over 1.5 Rounds

In Conclusion

This should be a really fun fight! I like what I have seen from both men so far. Jimmy only has his Contender Series fight as experience so this will be his first official UFC appearance.

Cody already stepped in and up on short notice to fight the feared kicking machine Chris Gutierrez and thanks to an entirely dominant first 5 minutes, he was able to squeak out a draw as a big underdog.

With a full camp, he could have done a lot more. For that reason, I want to pick him at (+165) here but my brain tells me to take the round total over 1.5 for a very affordable (-130).

Throwing half of a unit on Cody please call me Tyler Durden isn’t the worst idea ever but I like to win and the over looks pretty solid. Jimmy Flick could get him down to the mat early on when they are dry and pull something off but I think at least 60% of the time, these two go past the halfway mark.

Get your bets in now, team, and enjoy these Flyweight prospects scrap and grapple for longer than 7:30!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.