UFC Fight Night Las Vegas Betting Pick: Joe Solecki vs Jim Miller

Jim Miller is still getting after it, man, and he fights pretty regularly too. We have to all be honest with ourselves, though. He is not the same guy anymore.

Jim contracted Lyme Disease years ago and it has changed his life significantly for the worse.

Only he can say how much it has affected his mixed martial arts career but what stands out the most to us is that he doesn’t have the same level of endurance he used. In fact, it’s not even close.

  • Jim Miller is as tough and blue collared as they come and he never has a problem fighting for 15 minutes in the past but it has become apparent that he is good for about 5 minutes and that’s it.
  • Joe Solecki and his coaches are well aware of this, though. Jim’s best chance at winning this fight is Solecki shooting in recklessly early on in the first round and leaving his neck out there to be choked.

Solecki is an incredible grappler himself so I really don’t see this fight playing out like that. Solecki will probably test his striking in the first round.

Miller has never been known for his hands or kicks but he is a fast starter and may win the first 5 minutes. After that, though, I see Joe Solecki slowly starting to dominate this fight and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he submits or even maybe gets a ground and pound TKO over Miller.

Let’s see what the nice folks over at BetOnline.AG have to say about this one. I think Joe Solecki should be a sizable favorite in this fight.

Joe Solecki (-225) vs Jim Miller (+190)

Some people may think that this line is wide but some people don’t know what they’re talking about.

Georges St Pierre said recently speaking about Kamaru Usman but also about the entire UFC in general:

“In terms of accomplishments, it is different. I have done stuff that I believe he didn’t do yet… But as painful as it could be for any athlete to admit it, the athletes of today are normally better than the athletes of yesterday. And as good as the athletes of today are, the athletes of tomorrow will be better. That’s how it is. I don’t think the guys are better, I think the technology is better…”

He isn’t lying. I have always been an old school guy myself so for me, it is hard to admit this as well but it’s the truth.

It’s true for every sport in the world but for modern mixed martial arts, this phenomenon is exaggerated greatly.

Why?

Well, the sport is still very new. Baseball is older than basketball and that’s why record setting performances weren’t surpassed for years. Well, until the steroid era but that is a whole nother conversation that we will let be for now.

MMA is brand new, guys.

UFC 1 was less than 3 decades ago. The game of basketball (Michael Jordan voice) was invented in 1891 by Dr James Naismith. Let’s fast forward from there to 1920.

Do you think the best ballers on the planet in 1920 can hang with Lebron? Man, get outta here! There is no chance.

That is where we are with mixed martial arts.

Yes, the styles they are blending have been around for centuries and even millennia but you don’t have to watch many UFC events to understand that modern mixed martial arts is now its own sport and needs to be trained that way in order to succeed at the highest level.

Jim Miller is a full decade older than his opponent, Joe Solecki, and has at least 10x the fighting miles as the young prospect as well. Miller has 15 losses in his career. Granted most of them came inside of the Octagon against some of the best fighters in the world but that is still a very high number compared to just two defeats for Solecki.

In Jim’s last fight, he was dominated by the bigger, stronger, younger Vinc Pachel. Joe Solecki doesn’t have the same level of physicality as Vince but his grappling is certainly on a higher level.

He just has to be wary of the guillotine from Jim. The New Jersey native Miller hasn’t won a fight that has gone past the first round in 11 fights spanning the past 5 years.

That certainly isn’t a good look.

Jim was able to exploit Roosevelt Roberts’ lack of wrestling and BJJ but Solecki is a different stylistic matchup altogether.

This guy has been grinding away on the mats since he was a child and from what I gather from the caption of this Instagram post, he was not always the most talented kid.

That tells me he is a worker and if Miller is going to beat anyone nowadays, it likely isn’t going to be a grinder and hard nose worker like himself. He did submit Clay Guida a couple of years ago but Clay is an ancient old school guy also.

The athletes and fighters of today are just better.

That’s all it is to it and stylistically, I don’t see Joe Solecki losing this fight unless he gets careless early on and that has never been his mode of operation.

Miller may take the first round but from there, I expect one way traffic for Solecki on his way to a victory. The difficulty here is deciding whether or not to risk it on a method of victory.

Winning a decision here would be the safe move for Solecki but the kid is hungry and knows making a statement against a big name could catapult him into the top 20 of the stacked 155 pound UFC Lightweight Division.

Please Note:
I think Joe has great value and is still affordable for most sitting at (-225). He opened at (-135) which is hysterical to me. That line stuck around for all of 5 seconds until it was hit hard by the big money sharps and here we are at (-225) with a projected close of (-290) by fight time.

Get on this one now and I certainly would use him as the anchor to any of your parlays.

Before we go today, though, let’s see where the method of victory betting odds are at for this young vs old UFC Lightweight scrap.

Solecki inside the distance is (+225).

You can get him by sub for 5 to 1 but that may be a stretch. I can see him winning by TKO as well. Jim has MILES and MILES on that body and chin so he could be slept by a grappler at any time.

Let’s play Joe straight up at (-225). I say make this a 4 unit play so you can make nearly 2 units of profit. Joe is the new generation and has the grappling prowess to avoid the submission threat early on.

If you want to flip that minus to a plus, take him by stoppage either TKO or submission at (+225). Depending on your betting, you have two different options here. I think the smart play, though, is to invest 4 units and cruise.

The Bets
Solecki

In Conclusion

Joe Solecki is a name you will likely be hearing quite a bit more. Fighters with his style are very dangerous. He has very good wrestling and an even better submission game.

He is a dominating fighter who is now 3-0 in the UFC. His losses were earlier in his career when he was just 23 and 24 years old. You see this a lot from fighters who go on to be world champions.

Please Note:
They are still maturing emotionally and mentally and many times, they have at least one skill set that is lacking at that age. That’s kind of what we saw from Solecki in his early years but that time has passed.

I see him winning this fight fairly easily as long as he doesn’t do anything stupid early on.

Just don’t leave your neck out there, Joe, and we will be just fine. Miller is a gamer, man, and I could certainly see Solecki getting on his back and hopefully choking the Lyme Disease clean out of him!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.