UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Jordan Leavitt vs Matt Wiman

Matt Wiman is still fighting?!

I suppose he was smart enough to sign a 3-fight return deal with the UFC when they essentially just needed him to come back on short notice for one fight.

The company wanted to push Luis Pena because who doesn’t love Bob Ross or violence, right?

With him, you get both. Matt Wiman didn’t look great at all in that fight but in his next scrap, the UFC had him take a step up in competition against Joe Solecki, and even though he lost, Matt went the distance.

Joe finished his opponent on the Contender Series in the first couple of minutes with a choke and in his most recent UFC contest, choked out Austin Hubbard with a rear naked choke in the first round.

So, Joe knows chokes but he wasn’t able to put away Wiman.

Why is this important?

Well, Jordan Leavitt is primarily a submission specialist. People hate on his striking but I promise you guys, there is a method to his madness. Everything he does on the feet is to make you believe you should be more comfortable than you are.

That’s Jiu Jitsu right there but standing. Khabib makes people so uncomfortable with pressure so that they back up and he can take them down up against the cage. That is the wrestling or catch wrestling approach.

Make someone so uncomfortable that they give you something. The point of BJJ is to make someone so comfortable that they give you something. The end result is the same. Well, maybe if you’re tough, you walk away a little sore from being on the ugly end of the smesh.

Jordan is a BJJ guy trained by world champions and he takes the same approach on the feet as he does the mat. That separates him from the vast majority of his UFC stablemates.

This is an undercover tough matchup for him here, though. Or at least it could be.

Matt has never been submitted in 25 professional MMA fights. Jordan is so freaking smart, though. I think he will find a way to win even if it’s not by submission.

The online sportsbook BetOnline.AG has the odds on this one. Let’s take a look and make our prediction for Matt Wiman vs Jordan Leavitt.

Jordan Leavitt (-410) vs Matt Wiman (+310)

These are some incredibly wide betting odds for a fighter making his UFC debut against one who has stepped into the Octagon for competition 17 times in his life.

Please Note:
Jordan is a former training partner of mine. I was working with the man when he was just a kid of 18 years old. Now at 25, incredibly unique, and some of the trickiest submissions in the UFC, The Monkey King is a problem.

Yes, there is a gigantic gap in Octagon experience but Jordan has had a regulation Octagon inside of his gym at Syndicate MMA for the past 7 years. He is also an outstanding wrestler and in the smaller cage we will be using this weekend, he should be able to impose his will on Wiman.

Jordan has been putting in more time with UFC fighters, though, than Matt over the past 5 years or so. I would be willing to bet a lot of money on that. Syndicate MMA has their share of regulars and even more stopping through for a camp or even just a weekend.

I remember hearing head coach John Wood rave about Leavitt’s submission defense against Jake Shields’ guillotine, and this was 5 years ago.

My boy is the real deal. Now, he is not that big of a guy and should probably be fighting down at Featherweight so that concerns me somewhat. Matt Wiman isn’t the most gigantic guy ever, though, so it shouldn’t be a major issue in this fight.

Leavitt is the side here. The question is what method of victory do we take?

  • Wiman has never been submitted and Leavitt is (+170) to win by decision.
  • The Monkey King is also (+150) to win by submission.

My brain and my gut are at odds here.

My brain tells me to take the decision line because of the fact that Wiman has never been submitted in his career.

My gut tells me that Jordan will find a way, though.

We are going with brains over guts here and seeing who Matt Wiman has been in there with in the past makes me stay with the decision pick. Mac Danzig, Cole Miller, Paul Sass, Jim Miller, and Joe Solecki are all submission artists who couldn’t get Wiman to do it.

Submission defense isn’t something that you lose at 38 years old like reaction time or speed so let’s bank on Matt giving Jordan a hard time with the takedowns and an even harder time defending submissions.

My Pick
Leavitt by Decision

In Conclusion

I think the betting odds, at least the moneyline, are ridiculous. I love Jordan Leavitt and have a much better read on him than any of my colleagues having put in years of sparring and rolling with him but I can’t get behind him as a 4-1 favorite.

Luckily, since people are split on whether or not he gets the decision win or the submission, we can at least take a stab at some plus money either way.

As I mentioned, we have to go against either the gut or the brain and I say we be smart here. I do worry that maybe Matt Wiman will pack it in early and give Jordan something.

At the same time, though, you have to believe that Matt Wiman, a fighter whose performances have fallen off of the table at his age, would still like to hold onto the fact that he has never been tapped out as a professional mixed martial artist.

Get your bets in now, team!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.