UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Jose Aldo vs Chito Vera

Boy, is this a banger! I had to do a double take when I first saw that this fight was announced. I’ve said to myself hey, great fight for Chito! He has so much momentum but I’ve also said this is Jose Aldo and I am being ridiculous.

The Brazilian just turned 34 so he isn’t that old but then I remember what Teddy Atlas was saying about used cars and it’s not about the year, it’s the mileage. I have a lot of friends who were pushed hard in sports from a young age and they are some of the most inactive adults.

Maybe they have a few brews and play softball but not really getting after it in their 30s. Their bodies have already been torn down. I was always so bad at sports that I never really played enough to tear my body up.

So when I started martial arts at 23, I was still pretty fresh at 30. I’m 38 now, though, and starting to feel it. I feel like Jose Aldo’s odometer says he’s about 38 as well.

Chito Vera, conversely, just turned 28 a week ago and is undoubtedly better than ever.

Is this fight going to be another Jacare Souza vs Kevin Holland? We have all, of course, seen Jose Aldo slept with one punch. Because he is fast and he is powerful but timing beats speed and precision beats power. Oh, and no one can take that left hand shot.

Top tip:

Shout out to Conor McGregor and if you haven’t bet on him yet to defeat Dustin Poirier, then shame on you Cerci. McGregor opened as a (-175) favorite and now he is up to (-250) in some online sportsbooks.

I don’t like the word “lock” because it doesn’t really exist and especially not in the world we live in where (-230) is too big a favorite to bet on. But…I love Conor in this spot. You will hear plenty more about this in the weeks to come.

Jose Aldo proved to himself and to us fans that he was not done after such a devastating loss to Mystic Mac.

Yes, he has lost 5 of his last 8 since but he has only been fighting the best. Even since his move down to 135 pounds, Jose fought another guy fighting this weekend Marlon Moraes and then Petr Yan.

I think he could have arguably won a 3 round fight with Yan. Of course, the Russian would have used a different game plan than he did but this is important to remember because Saturday night’s fight is scheduled only for 3 rounds.

I believe that favors the former WEC and UFC world champion.

Vera is a guy who starts slow and finishes strong but giving a round away to a legend like Jose Aldo might not be the best policy. It will be very interesting to see how head coach Jason Parillo handles this.

The betting odds brought to us by BetOnline are pretty close for this fight so we can argue for value on each side.

Let’s have a look-see.

Jose Aldo (-150) vs Chito Vera (+130)

Okay, Jose is affordable and Chito is live. The question is how live because (+130) isn’t great for a guy who was fighting Nohelin Hernandez, whoever that is, just 18 months ago.

While Chito was on that level, Jose was fighting the current champ up at Featherweight, Alex Volkanovski. That isn’t comparable whatsoever.

Marlon is a fighter’s fighter through and through. I developed an early hate for the guy because he came on strong late in a couple of fights and I lost my bets. I even picked Sean O’Malley to beat him.

That low leg kick that lands on the peroneal nerve running from the calf to just above the knee is just devastating. Marlon Vera is one of the very best in the UFC with this kick and he has incredibly long legs as well.

Do you really want to get into a kicking battle with Jose Aldo, though?

Jose hasn’t been throwing a lot of kicks this late in his career, though, and that is just one more storyline that makes this fight so interesting.

Picking Vera to win a kicking battle with Jose Aldo is kinda far fetched but Kevin Holland just knocked out Jacare 10x world champ in BJJ from his butt. Sitting on his butt, he knocked out a legend.

Those two men were born 13 years apart. 28 and 41. Age matters.

34 vs 28 isn’t quite as bad even with Jose’s mileage. This one opened a small chunk closer with Aldo at (-125) and it has been bet up a little since.

I believe Jose Aldo, in a 3 round fight against a grinder like Marlon, can hang tough long enough. That calf kick is a monster, though. If Jose were up at (-200) or more, I might stay away but I think his jab will be the x-factor in this fight.

Marlon isn’t the best boxer even though he has Jason Parillo in his corner. He grinds and kicks his way to most of his victories. I think the former world champion gets into the pocket and rips a liver shot that could end it.

He finished Jeremy Stephens who is a 45’er with a shovel to the liver and built much thicker in the core than the lanky Bantamweight, Vera.

  • Chito’s path to victory is to out kick one of the best kickers of all time in MMA while Jose Aldo’s paths to victory are to work his opponent over with his hands en route to a decision win and also get him out of there with the liver shot.
  • Aldo’s paths just seem more realistic to me. The UFC has been setting up their older and important to note, higher paid athletes to lose is scary, though. This past weekend, we saw a couple of Brazilian MMA legends get crushed.

Could Jose Aldo face the same fate on Saturday? First of all, the UFC loves Jose Aldo or they wouldn’t have given him the title shot over Marlon Moraes after Moraes won a controversial decision. And second, he can still compete with the best in the world.

But Jacare just went to a split decision with the 205 champ and gets KO’ed easily down a weight class to someone ranked 15th. That’s the fight game and they really don’t want you to get that PS5 this year.

I think Marlon will have his moments but give me Jose Aldo to take a unanimous decision.

My Pick
Jose Aldo

In Conclusion

Fun fight here, guys, and I’m actually happy that it isn’t the main event because 5 rounds is pushing it for Jose Aldo. I want to back him here and I feel like 15 minutes is perfect.

Heck, I would take a 5 or 10 minute fight if they would do it. As long as Jose can avoid the low leg kicks of Marlon Vera, I think he should be able to work Chito over with his boxing.

Vera is tough and likely the only way Jose is going to get him out of there is to go to the liver where it doesn’t really matter how tough you are. I see a couple of paths to victory for the former champ and really only one for the underdog here.

Where the betting odds are at right now, though, we have to go with Jose Aldo to get it done.

As far as where the betting line goes from here, I can’t call it so you might as well bet now directly from this article and I believe we have a good chance to get paid this weekend.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.