UFC on ESPN Betting Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Maurice Greene

Normally, I would stay away from fights like this because it is very low level bordering on not even being UFC level. The betting line, though, is off. It isn’t normally my style to attack lines that are off just for that reason.

I usually like to snipe picks and only make that play if I like both the same side and the value. Here, we have enough value on the underdog to make a play here even if we think said fighter only has a 50% chance to win.

Maurice Greene is not a fighter you want to bet on. He almost made me pay the only time I ever have. I thought after seeing the dad bod on Gian Villante at the weigh ins that Maurice Greene was a lock.

So, I put him in a parlay and while the other leg of it hit with no issue, Maurice faded in the third round and was taking a lot of damage on the feet from the Italian Strong Island native. Gian somehow tapped to this.

These guys do a good job of explaining just how and why this happened but I think it was too much gabagool and not enough road work but what do I know?

Maurice isn’t a great fighter but he does have the size on most of his opponents.

  • Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a big guy, sure, but only 6’1” tall with a 75 inch reach. I know that sounds like a lot but for heavyweight, he is certainly undersized.
  • Maurice Greene will have to be wary of the calf kicks coming from the American Top Team product, de Lima, but I think Greene can win this fight with the jab and some front kicks.

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this contest. Let’s take a look at those and then make a play or two on the winner of this heavyweight scrap.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-175) vs Maurice Greene (+155)

Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a former middleweight and will be out-sized by 6 inches of height and 7 inches of reach. De Lima didn’t gain a bunch of muscle to fight at heavyweight either.

He just got a gut.

The guy can scrap a bit but I’m not the biggest fan but then again, Maurice Greene isn’t the highest on my list but at least he came through for us the last time we tipped him.

Please Note:
I think this is a 50/50 fight, essentially, but the betting line does not reflect that. Maurice Greene should probably be around (-110), here, in my opinion if not a slightly higher favorite. The Crochet Boss is the much bigger man here.

It isn’t like he is fighting a natural heavyweight. De Lima is a ballooned 85er and he knows it. The online sportsbooks do as well but here we are looking at him at (+155). If he was the (-175) favorite instead of his Brazilian foe, I would never bet him but he is the dog.

I think we have some value here.

Maurice is kind of a mess in there at times so this one likely won’t be a clean win but the line is off and we have to locate and detonate. Fire in the…

The Bets

In Conclusion

Big Mo doesn’t exactly haven’t Uncle Mo on his side this week at UFC 261 but neither does his opponent, Marcos Rogerio de Lima who was put out by a simple forearm drop from Alexander Romanov in his last fight.

Greene has had some time to recover from the Greg Hardy TKO.

That was back on Halloween of 2020. Maurice is the bigger guy and there is nowhere Marcos stands out except for in the kicking department.

  • All Maurice has to do is be faster with his hands than the Brazilian is with his legs and he can win the fight.
  • De Lima isn’t a takedown threat either. I could see Marcos working the calf kick early so that is a concern but again, we are talking about an underdog here.

If we have more than one question about a favorite, we should probably look at the dog, the round total, or elsewhere.

Maurice should have enough range to stay away from the long over the top punches of de Lima. The kicks are a worry but outside of that, I think this is Maurice Greene’s fight to win.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.