UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Marlon Moraes vs Rob Font

I tried to stay away from this fight, guys, but it is just too interesting to pass up. We may find some excellent value in a round total and/or a method of victory prop bet along the way.

At the beginning of the week, we touched on this fight and I tipped Rob Font as the underdog. The betting line hasn’t really shifted very much as the public and the sharps are both keeping a fair bit of distance from this one.

Font opened at (+150) and the market corrected itself slightly to (+130) and we have been sitting there not really moving ever since. It is really a tough fight to call and I feel like the blueprint to beat Moraes is out there.

Is it guaranteed?

Heck no but if you can survive the first round, you are in a much better position to succeed. This is a fight I might look to live bet. If Marlon wins the first which he probably will but if Font is beginning to come on and find his rhythm, I would say throw a little on Rob because he will likely be (+200) or better by then.

Moraes is notorious for fading after a furious first 5 minutes.

If Ron can sustain the early barrage from the Brazilian, he has a good chance to take advantage of his tiring opponent as the fight progresses.

We may be able to look at the round total as well and make a play there.

BetOnline.AG has all kinds of options for every fight on the card. Let’s see what’s cooking for this Top 10 matchup in the UFC’s Bantamweight Division between Marlon Moraes and my fingers’ favorite fighter Rob Font.

Marlon Moraes (-150) vs Rob Font (+130)

I tipped Font here at (+130) earlier in the week and yes, I think he is a live underdog, but this appears to be the correct betting line so there really isn’t the edge we want over the online sportsbooks to make a strong play.

If you bet Font already, that’s fine.

I do think he has a good chance at victory here but let’s see what other value may be out there for us.

Well, I don’t see Rob Font finishing Marlon Moraes so let’s see where the betting odds are for a Font win by decision. (+250)…Not bad at all.

The books have been tightening these method of victory lines up lately because they aren’t a terrible bet when you have a pretty good idea if a fighter wins, how he can and likely will do it.

So, if you have the betting odds doubling up from there, for what will more than likely be the only way he wins, it’s not a bad play. Or is it?

I really hate to go back on the tip on Font when the week started but I just think Moraes is the better striker.

I know it was controversial but he just beat Jose Aldo, a former multiple time world champion and legend a weight class up.

Sandhagen did TKO him with the wheel kick but he wasn’t out cold. There are definitely things working against Marlon in this spot but he overcame Aldo’s reach. Jose has one of the best jabs in MMA too.

It isn’t like Font is that much younger.

Marlon is actually the younger fighter. He has been in there with Cejudo, Aldo, and now Sandhagen. Those are 3 of the top 5 fighters in the UFC’s Bantamweight Division.

Well, Triple C, the king of cringe is officially retired but any chance he can get to make himself feel taller even if it is just for one fleeting moment, he’ll do it.

He beat Sterling in the first round also. There is 4 of the top 5.

Please Note:
Rob Font is just too small of a dog here for me to get behind. Let’s see what kind of props are available for Marlon.

John Linekar hit Font 80 times to his output of just 40. Raphy Assuncao doubled him up as well but that was aided by a couple of takedowns and some top control.

Rob Font has never been TKO’ed in his career and submitted just once when he fell victim to Pedro Munhoz’s patented and highly preferred guillotine choke. That is it for Font. We know he has a chin if he took 80 from Linekar.

I think Magic Marlon Moraes by decision might be a frisky flyer. That is (+250).

I thought we might get a little more love there but I’ll take it.

Moraes straight up at (-150) and let’s get him to win a decision for (+250).

The Bets
Moraes by Decision.

In Conclusion

I don’t like to change my mind but at the same time, I have to be completely honest with you guys. Predictions are opinions and opinions change.

It isn’t like there was something that happened during fight week that led me to switching my pick so the mistake I made was tipping Font before I really gave the pick time to marinate.

Please Note:
The marination thing is real. I know there are bargain hunters out there that love to get the best line and to do that, a lot of times you have to bet the line the second it is released. You do normally get the best price that way if that was built into your strategy in the first place but you don’t get fight week. You don’t get to see the weigh-ins. You don’t see the face-offs either. That is one of my biggest things is the face-off after the weigh ins.

Unfortunately besides one or two picks that we do after the weigh ins like this article here, everything else is the week prior to the fight or the week of.

I felt like we had to switch the pick to Moraes here. Rob Font has ran into short stocky guys with some power and it has given him problems in the past. Moraes is that guy. That is how he is built and how he fights.

I think Marlon wins a technical striking battle because his shots will land with greater force and I think he is the better kicker of the two. Moraes can also make this one ugly and brawl a little but I don’t think he needs to.

My main concern is Moraes tiring but he went the distance with Aldo and I think that is a good guy to compare Font with. Aldo is obviously much better but they have a similar reach and both good jabs.

I think if he outduels Aldo, he will have the edge on Font. We just can’t get tired!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.