UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Miguel Baeza vs Takashi Sato

Yes, we do have Mike Tyson fighting Roy Jones Jr this weekend but the UFC will be cool too.

We may have to do a little double monitor action during the main card. One of those bouts I want to talk about today is between the undefeated Miguel Baeza who is coming off of an impressive 2nd round stoppage victory over The Immortal Matt Brown and the always dangerous Japanese counter punching southpaw, Takashi Sato.

I don’t normally like to bet on fights with Sata because the books know him well. You never really get a large enough underdog line on the guy to make a play but he throws with low volume and doesn’t have an offensive wrestling game.

So, essentially, you are just betting on the knockout and small cage or big cage, that is hardly ever a good bet.

Now, are we going with the undefeated prospect here to put the volume and eventually the power on Sato for the win?

Let’s do a little bit of digging to make a more educated play but I feel good about this one.

The online sportsbook BetOnline has the odds for us. Let’s play!

Miguel Baeza (-145) vs Takashi Sato (+125)

There is not much value on Takashi Sato here.

Miguel Baeza “Caramel, don’t call me Carmel, Thunder” has some pretty affordable betting odds, in my opinion. I thought this betting line would have shot up a lot farther than it has.

Wow, this thing opened at (-190) for Baeza. I would have had it closer to (-250) but I understand that Sato is always very dangerous. The money coming in on the Japanese fighter here is not the smartest dollar but here I go with my opinions again.

I know people are questioning the chin of Baeza because he got rocked by Matt Brown but for one, he recovered and finished the guy in the next round and for two, Matt Brown hits really really hard.

Some of my former training partners in Las Vegas have told me that he has bricks in his hands. One guy, who has been in there with Chuck Liddell, Big Country Nelson, and John Wayne Parr, told me that Matt Brown hit harder than them all.

I will give Miguel a pass for his chin.

I don’t put it past him to try to secure a takedown here either. He comes from a strong team in South Florida at MMA Masters and the coaches there are just that.

Wherever this fight takes place, though, I give Miguel Baeza, who is also the taller man by 4 inches, an advantage. Sato is going to be sitting on the left hand or maybe the right hook to set it up but that is really all we have seen from him in his UFC career so there is no reason to believe otherwise.

I will take Baeza here to get the W and at just (-145), we can afford to put a few units on him.

My Pick
Miguel Baeza

In Conclusion

I believe there is a gap in striking skill in this matchup. It’s not that I think Takashi Sato is a bad striker or anything but he is very low volume and relies on the knockout to get the win.

Unless you’re one of the very best at this, I don’t think you are worth a bet with small dog odds of (+125). If you want to take a flyer on a 2.5 or 3 to 1 underdog, then go ahead but where he is now, the value is gone.

Miguel Baeza is still undefeated but with only 9 fights. 3 have been inside the Octagon, though, with 2 finishes including putting away Matt Brown who has over 40 professional MMA contests.

Sato could go out there and make us look silly but with Baeza as affordable as he has become, a play on the American is warranted.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.