UFC Fight Night Las Vegas Betting Pick: Mike Perry vs Daniel Rodriguez

If these two don’t get Fight of the Night, I don’t know what they’re doing with their lives. Mike Perry and Daniel Rodriguez both love to trade on the feet and in all likelihood, that’s what we are going to see on Saturday night in Sin City.

Daniel Rodriguez loves to bang and is a decent submission threat on the mat but I really don’t think he could or will even try to get Mike Perry down on Saturday night when these two men trade bones.

This is going to be a kickboxing battle of skill and chins.

To me, Daniel Rodriguez is at least slightly overrated. He is a bad man, don’t get me wrong but they really hyped this guy up and he hasn’t lived up to it.

Are the online sportsbooks like BetOnline.AG overhyping him?

I suppose we will see but Mike Perry is a wild card. He took Vicente Luque to a split decision and a lot of fans thought he won that fight. I had picked and bet on the Brazilian so it was pretty clear to me, ha.

I guess the standing guillotine choke on the Dirty Bird Tim Means in his UFC debut is what got people going for D-Rod and I get that.

He has heart, conditioning, good size for the division but lacks in the wrestling department. If he has a guy that wants to bang then he is usually okay but Mike Perry will take you down if he has to. He may be crazy but he just had a baby and knows he can double his money with a win. He took down Mickey Gall, a BJJ specialist, in his only attempt and it saved him from a possible loss as Gall had never looked better on the feet.

This is a fun matchup and a lot of bettors are staying away but there is some good value buried beneath the surface of this one so let’s get after it.

Daniel Rodriguez (-157) vs Mike Perry (+137)

I get D Rod being the favorite here but a bet on him with this kind of juice is really risky. Mike did just lose to Tim Means, a taller rangier guy but Tim is 6’3 and D Rod just 6’1. Perry won’t have to deal with all of that crazy range and inside elbows longer than his punches.

As I mentioned a moment ago, Daniel choked out Means in his UFC debut.

You have to be careless at the highest level to get caught in a guillotine unless it is from a specialist so it’s possible that Tim means was taking D Rod lightly.

Please Note:
Statistically, it is going to be difficult for Mike Perry to win a decision over Rodriguez if he doesn’t find a way to get this fight to the mat. The guillotine threat is obviously there but Mike doesn’t really have much of a neck so it won’t be easy. Means is a tall long guy and we have those long freaking necks that are just begging to be squeezed!

D Rod is a volume striker! He lands 7.7 significant strikes per minute! That is approaching Max Holloway numbers right there. The difference between D Rod and Blessed, though, is how much he gets hit himself.

Rodrigue absorbs over 6 sig strikes himself every minute. That isn’t a good look against a power puncher like Mike Perry. Mike Perry or the GOAT as his hardcore fans like to refer to him as is still a savage with those hands.

I wouldn’t trust Mike as a favorite but as a dog against a guy who seems to be somewhat overrated and clearly gets hit way too much, could be a solid play.

They are both actually coming off of losses:
  • Mike looked terrible against Tim Means when we last saw him in November of last year.
  • D Rod dropped a unanimous decision to Nicholas Dalby.

Statistically, D Rod won the fight but Dalby is so big and nordic thick that his Vikingness made it look like he was getting bit by mosquitoes when he got punched.

D Rod is of a slighter frame and we may see something similar with Perry. Mike is shorter than Daby by a couple of inches but he is every bit as thick and powerful. Perry will likely have a strength and power advantage in this matchup so why is D Rod the favorite again?

I’ll tell you why. Because Mike Perry is a hot mess. That’s why. He runs around like he literally doesn’t care if he gets locked up.

There is tape of him punching an old man at a bar after he was already being kicked out.

The 50 year old or so probably should have done his homework before he engaged with a UFC fighter but props to him for not backing down.

Please Note:
Mike has come out and said that his girlfriend was going to train him and also corner him. This isn’t new as his ex did the same but she at least had some martial arts experience prior to meeting Mike.

From the information I have gathered, though, Mike is taking this camp more seriously and has been with the boys at MMA Masters.

The calf kick for MMA which has revolutionized the industry is said to have originated, at least in the practice of competitive mixed martial arts, there at that school. If you remember Roan Carneiro, a lanky Brazilian fighter with great kicks is the guy to have got the whole thing started.

You never know. Maybe Mike will come out with the calf kick and slow down D Rod from the start. I think he may be looking for the takedown also. When I saw him show excellent fight IQ against Mickey Gall with the takedown late in the contest, I knew that he is still a winner and isn’t just out there “fighting”.

How well does D Rod defend the takedown?

Statistically, he does an excellent job at 80%. Even though Nicholas Dalby won the decision against D Rod, he was 0-7 in his efforts to get the fight to the floor.

I would like to get Mike at a higher number than he is right now and considering that D Rod has never been finished, I don’t mind a play on Perry by decision. I know I said it is going to be hard for him because of the volume that D Rod throws but with the potential takedown threat from Mike, I don’t mind this play.

Well, the fact that it pays at (+500) right now is pretty awesome.

Let’s bet the fight goes to a decision betting line for even money and sprinkle half of a unit on Mike Perry to win a decision. I can see him sneaking in a takedown or two. He is so freaking strong.

The Bets
Goes to Decision

In Conclusion

Mike Perry fighting is still must see TV. I don’t care who you are. The guy brings it and has never been in a boring fight in his life.

He is a father now and there is a possibility of moderate strength that he is going to mature at least slightly from this. Maybe he isn’t sleeping well because of the baby but as I said, he is game and will certainly fight for your money.

Please Note:
Something else that I like here that isn’t being talked about by many people is the fact that Perry is 5 full years younger than D Rod. We have been seeing Mike fight inside of the Octagon for years now and D Rod really only became known to most fans just last year.

To find value in the method of victory betting lines we usually have to go against the narrative. That isn’t always the case but it is here. Yes, the two men have power but neither has ever been TKO’ed.

If you’re not convinced and faithful in Mike Perry, believe me, I get it, so just leave the Mike Perry by decision sprinkle off of your betting card. If you like, you can add Daniel Rodriguez by submission method of victory prop to your weekly wager list.

That pays even better at (+700)!

He subbed Tim Means and Mike has fallen victim to the tap out fairy in the past when he made the fatal mistake of taking down Cowboy Cerrone who locked his arm up with the quickness and Platinum was forced to say, uncle.

This will be a fun fight and we can attack it from all angles. I actually think this one goes to the judges’ scorecard more often than not. Even if that is just 60% of the time, we have a 10% edge on the books to make our play.

D Rod hasn’t been able to TKO guys with lesser durability than Perry so I disagree with the narrative that he puts away Platinum.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.