UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Thiago Moises vs Jalin Turner

If you have looked at the “entire” fight card for Saturday night’s UFC event then you understand that even though we have 1000 pounds of main and co-main events, the lineup doesn’t look particularly interesting from a fan’s perspective.

On the betting side, though, I think we have some valuable betting odds on a few fights.

One of those bouts is between Sao Paulo’s Thiago Moises and the Los Angeles native, Jalin Turner. Both fighters are still very young and quite talented.

Thiago Moises is coming off of a shocking submission win over Michael Johnson in his last fight.

I picked and bet on Johnson because I thought he is the better striker, the better athlete, and in all likelihood, the better wrestler. That should be enough, right?

One round down and I think the strike count was something like 25-1. Feeling good.

After offering nearly zero offense in the first five minutes of the fight, Thiago Moises sprinted form his corner to start the round, snatched a single leg, and then pulled guard using the single leg as an insertion to attack the leg.

I was a little taken back by the sudden turn of events but I still thought Mike will get out of here.

Thiago only has him in a straight ankle lock which is very rarely used in MMA or high-level Jiu-Jitsu for that matter.

Please Note:
Well, you don’t know what you don’t know and I didn’t know there was a variation to the straight ankle lock that reaped the knee. Thiago did, though, and unfortunately for Michael, Herb Dean missed his tap for a couple of seconds so Moises shredded that thing.

Oowee, I get sick just thinking about it.

Jalin Turner isn’t the striker Michael Johnson is and he has far less experienced so I understand why the Brazilian is the favorite.

That doesn’t mean “The Tarantula” isn’t a live dog.

Standing at 6’3″ tall with a 77-inch reach at 155 pounds is rather impressive and considering the young man is only 25 years old, I would say he has an incredibly high ceiling.

Unlike some of his other tall and lanky counterparts, Jon Jones included, Jalin possesses serious knockout power in his hands.

Let’s look at the UFC betting odds for this matchup and make our prediction on the fight.

Thiago Moises (-185) vs Jalin Turner (+150)

This here is more or less a striker vs grappler matchup. I don’t want to complicate it more than it already is.

Thiago has not shown great striking defense or offense in his UFC career. His opponents have been tough, though.

I faded him against Damir Ismagulov but that guy is a Russian Sambo artist and wrestler who currently trains in Thailand. If their name ends with v, you’re gonna have a bad time…

In his UFC debut, he lost to Beneil Dariush who is looking better than ever right now.

Thiago beat Kurt Holobaugh and Michael Johnson in the UFC and Johnson was working him over badly.

That’s not saying much really as Mike is known to lose to people he probably shouldn’t but also beat guys at least ranked higher than he is.

Jalin Turner’s resume doesn’t exactly jump off the screen at you either.

He fought Vicente Luque and got smoked in the first round but Vicente does that to just about everyone who doesn’t have a head the size of West Texas i.e. Mike Perry. Tough fight, though, especially at 23 years old making your UFC debut.

In his next fight, he got maybe the biggest step down in MMA history when he got matched up with Callan Potter. The tough but athletically challenged Potter didn’t make it out of the first round.

Matt Frevola was next for the SoCal native. This is a guy much closer to Jalin’s level. Matt lived up to his moniker and steamrolled Turner for a unanimous decision win taking him down 4 times.

Frevola is a front foot guy with a never-ending gas tank who is quite explosive with his wrestling. Thiago isn’t that guy.

Can he get Turner to the ground and submit him? Sure.

Do I think he will do it at least 2 out of 3 times? 6.7/10? Not really. I think this one is more 60/40 for the underdog.

His odds are worth a stab if you believe it’s a 50/50 fight. His 7 inches of reach and most importantly, his forward style should help Turner get the victory here.

He does fight very smart. I like Turner’s fight IQ especially for such a young and relatively inexperienced martial artist. He can win this fight inching forward with his jab.

Just avoid the freaking guard pull!

Turner does stand tall and that really concerns me against a good wrestler but I believe that Turner can keep this one standing.

As long as he does that, I really don’t see him losing a striking match.

My Pick
Jalin Turner

In Conclusion

I did quite a bit of research and thought about this fight.

They are the same age. 25 is kind of a crossroads in a fighter’s development.

I feel like everyone is still improving at a good clip pre-25 as long as they have good coaches which most of these guys do.

From 25-30 and even to 35 in some cases, you see fighters continuing to evolve.

I am slightly worried that Thiago could be a late bloomer and he just needed to get his mojo back after a shaky start albeit against high-level competition in the beginning of his UFC career.

The speed, length, and athleticism advantage is on the side of Turner, though. As long as his wrestling holds up, I think we will be good.

This isn’t a slam dunk, though, so tread lightly.

I say just one unit on Turner should be plenty considering he is close to a 1.5 to 1 dog.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.