UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Movsar Evloev vs Nate Landwehr

If you guys aren’t familiar with Movsar Evloev yet, allow me to fill you in. The 13-0 fighter out of Russia is now 3-0 in the UFC with 3 dominant victories.

He got his start in M-1, the #1 promotion in Russia. His first 6 opponents had a combined record of 24-12. That’s not too bad for someone starting their career. Then, his next 4 had a record of 49-11.

Then, in his first 3 UFC fights, 35-6 combined record of his opponents. Movsar has not only been fighting good opponents for nearly his entire career but he has been dominating them.

Standing at 5’7” tall with an astounding reach of 73”, he reminds me of a former training partner and roommate of mine, Jeff Murphy. Short but long! I don’t know if Movsar has as big of hands as he did because Evloev isn’t knocking a lot of people out but even me standing at 6’1”, I had all kinds of problems with him.

When someone is shorter with a longer reach, you can get yourself into big trouble standing tall. If you lower your level, you take away the devastating shot over the top but you also bring your targets closer to your opponent’s weapons.

Movsar’s opponent on Saturday night, Nate The Train Landwehr, is another M-1 Global alum and champion as well. These two never met before, though, so it will be nice to see this weekend.

Evloev has even come out on his Instagram talking trash to Landwehr. Could the (-600) favorite be getting overconfident here? It’s possible but he has always fought so calculated and efficiently.

The Russian fighter doesn’t show a lot of emotion in his fights.

Forgive me for stereotyping here but just as Mexicans are known for their durability and heart, the French are known for their technique and brains, Russians are known to be cold machines in there.

Since he is such a machine in there, will he step outside of his strict game plan to try and make a statement? He has 3 decisions in 3 UFC fights. I don’t think the brass wants to cut him but they would surely like to see him get a finish sooner than later.

It would also help him tremendously in the future as a fighter. If his opponents have to worry about getting their lights shut off like they just had Thanksgiving in Cali, they won’t react as quickly to his takedown attempts.

He can’t let the stacked Featherweight Division get too much of a read on him in his early fights.

Nate is going to come at him and come at him hard, though, and even though The Train is durable, there will likely be opportunities for Movsar to get him out of there.

BetOnline has the betting odds for this fight and always some of the best on the internet.

Let’s make our betting prediction for the fight this Saturday night between Russia’s Movsar Evloev and Clarksville, Tennessee’s Nate Landwehr.

Movsar Evloev (-600) vs Nate Landwehr (+400)

Okay, so no moneyline action for us today. That’s fine. I believe we can find value elsewhere.

History albeit briefly tells us that Movsar isn’t a finisher at the UFC and that Nate Landwehr is very durable. This is true but I want to highlight Nate’s style and his nickname should take care of all the illustration we need.

The Train. What do trains do? For 1, they don’t get off the track. For 2, they come forward.

That’s all that a technician like Movsar needs, predictability. He is the more skillful fighter than Nate with a significant wrestling advantage. I don’t think the (-600) is worth a parlay risk because the value you’re adding doesn’t outweigh the risk you’re faced with any time you are predicting a fight between two humans.

We are going to have to find a method of victory prop or possibly a round total to make a play here. Let’s see what’s available.

Movsar doesn’t have a lot of power in his punches but that could be something that his camp is bringing along slowly and who can argue with his handlers? He is 13-0 for a reason.

Please Note:

Trains come forward, though, and you don’t need a ton of power if you have precision and timing. I believe Nate will run head-on into a hard straight one from the Russian. Will that put away the Cro Magnon dome piece of Landwehr?

That is tough. Movsar is a path of least resistance kind of fighter much like Georges St Pierre. He knows he is facing a powerful puncher with a great gas tank who can also take some hard shots.

Do you think he is going to stand and trade all day? Probably not. I think Movsar will stand up for a few but get the fight to the ground by the end of the first round. I think he will be quicker on the takedown trigger in the second stanza and this is where it might get ugly for Nate.

The Tennessee native is a gamer. He has 3 losses and he was finished in his most recent two. Fighter’s fighters don’t like to go to the judges’ scorecards whether they think they are going to win or not.

For that, I think he will shrimp, squirm, and try to stand up at all costs with the Russian on top of him and this will create openings. Rear naked or arm triangle is what I’m seeing coming.

You can get the (-600) favorite Evloev who has a submission grappling and wrestling advantage against a guy willing to go out on his shield to win by submission for (+450)?

Take my money. Okay, not all of it. Take 1 unit, though.

Sure, the decision win is more likely and I see why people are leaning that way but you have to take into account the gameness of Landwehr.

People think that just because a guy is tough and game, he will surely last 15 minutes. There is another side to that coin, though, and that’s the point we just made. A fighter who may have the skills to go the distance but not the heart to get finished, will probably hold tight on bottom and not risk getting submitted in attempts to escape.

My Pick
Evloev by Submission

In Conclusion

Nate The Train Landwehr vs Movsar Evloev is a clash of styles and almost sure to be an exciting fight. It appears that the bookmakers believe the narrative of distance striking with not much power and some cage control mixed in with some takedowns.

  • Movsar wins a unanimous decision. I can see that, sure, but for (+450) for the man to get the submission, I have to take it.
  • You can get Evloev to win by decision for (-120). Play that if you like but I don’t believe that there should be such a massive gap.

We already explained at length why and it is simply Nate’s style. He isn’t the type to just lay there and accept a decision loss. He will go for it.

Now, whether or not Movsar takes a bit of a risk himself to halt The Train, that is to be seen. For the 4.5 to 1 payout, though, I feel like this is one of the best flyers of the week.

Get your bets in now, team, and enjoy the fights this Saturday night!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.