UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Pannie Kianzad vs Sijara Eubanks

This is a good looking fight in the UFC’s Women’s Bantamweight Division. Pannie Kianzad is one of my favorite fighters to bet on because the online sportsbooks never give her the respect she deserves.

This girl has hands, pretty clean hands. She out struck Jessy Jess who is one of the most technical strikers in the division. In her most recent fight, Pannie took care of Bethe Correia. I know that isn’t saying a lot but the Brazilian Sherman Tank is a tough out for the majority of the division.

Kianzad has a great frame for 135 and that is something that Sijara clearly doesn’t. She has some bigger legs and that usually means a smaller frame.

Eubanks is a black belt in BJJ under Lloyd Irvin but has struggled at 135 because she has such a hard time getting these bigger women to the ground. I don’t think her hands are bad but they aren’t overly impressive either.

Sarge is a good fighter but there is nothing exceptional about her.

I think Kianzad will have an edge with her boxing particularly her jab as well as being the bigger woman in there. The x-factor will be the forward pressure. Who can press the action?

I have a pretty solid read on this fight already so let’s get to the betting odds provided to us by the online sportsbook BetOnline and make our prediction for Sijara Eubanks vs Pannie Kianzad.

Sijara Eubanks (-160) vs Pannie Kianzad (+140)

And what do we have here?

A little surprise mixed in with some excitement with a sprinkle of anxiety. Sounds about right, I guess.

When I see a betting line I think is off, I first question myself. Am I off? Well, certainly but speaking solely on handicapping this fight, I have tried but I am sticking with my firearms.

The Iranian born Swede should be the favorite here. I know Sarge is one of the darlings of the post lockdown UFC in 2020 but let’s just review these performances.

She fought Sarah Moras in May and won a decision. Sarah is 6-7. Then she came in as a big underdog against the Raging Panda Julia Avila and pulled out a decision. That was impressive but if you watch the fight, you see that Avila was overrated.

She is very big and strong for the weight class and she hits hard but her technique is not so hot. She is also used to getting girls out of there pretty quickly and was gassed by round two. Sarge did a great job weathering the storm and coming on in the later rounds.

Then Sarge fought another giant with bad technique and conditioning, Ketlen Vieira, and lost.

Pannie isn’t that type of fighter, though. She has the size of Avila with much better technique, conditioning, and fight IQ.

I think she boxes up Sarge for a decision win. You can get her to win by decision for (+185 but that is just greedy considering she is (+140) straight up. We got Gavin Tucker and Charles Oliviera for about the same price last week.

Let’s do it again.

My Pick
Pannie Kianzad

In Conclusion

This is another instance where the betting line is flipped in the wrong direction. What worries me is why. Why are others, many of whom are quite knowledgeable, disagreeing with me?

When we analyze these lines, these are the types of things we need to be thinking about. You have to be completely open to the fact that you could be entirely incorrect about a betting line/outcome of a fight.

Without acceptance, you can never take the next step. This isn’t just about admitting you have a problem or anything. Believe me. If you feel like you can’t be wrong and this is a total lock, you’re going to lose at the end of the day, week, month, or year.

Once you accept that you can be totally wrong, then the ego shuts up for a minute and then you can effectively analyze and make a fairly clear headed decision on your pick. I’m sure you have all heard someone who has a doctorate in a subject talk shop.

They say “I don’t know” so many times, you think you’re talking to a 4-year-old. We have to stay on the same track if we want to be in the top 3% of cappers and bettors. We have to actively try to prove ourselves wrong, not right!

If you know how to sell and persuade, it’s easy to make a pick and then give your best narrative. Cool story, bro, but that is just one side.

Please Note:

Sijara has good pressure and decent takedowns but I think Pannie has a really good jab to nullify the pressure and without that, she probably doesn’t put herself in the best position to get a takedown.

I feel like Pannie should be on the A-side of the implied probability of 60/40 here and but she is 40/60. 3 units on one of the most underrated fighters in the Women’s Bantamweight Division.

Oh, and Pannie just turned 29 a few days ago and Sarge is pushing 36. That counts as well.

I would say bet now but the line keeps moving towards Sarge. I can’t imagine it going too much further, though. Kianzad at (+140) is great.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.