We had the keg ready to be tapped last week but one of our leg’s fight was cancelled and that was a wrap for us. We only had a 2-fight parlay on there and I didn’t want to force anything at the last minute.
This week, I think we can get a 2-leg and a 3-leg going so it won’t be such a lonely Saturday night for parlayers.
BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this event among others.
Let’s put together a couple of nice moneymaker parlays for you guys this week. We have had 57 parlay predictions over the past 18 months and are at an even 20% return on your investment.
It’s cool but we can do much better.
Parlay #1: Sean Strickland + Stamann/Merab to Decision (+100)
Sean Strickland is an absolute animal in the cage. The man is built as hard as they come, having grown up in an abusive household and fortunately finding mixed martial arts at the age of 14.
He is a better fighter than Krys Jotko everywhere the fight takes place.
— UFC (@ufc) April 28, 2021
I don’t give the Pole much of a chance here although he could employ some calk kicks early on. He trains at a great camp at American Top Team and you already know South Florida is the home of the calf kick.
I would say Thailand, actually, but for the sake of not offending all the MMA guys, we will stick with Florida. They invented it for mixed martial arts. How bout that?
I think that is Jotko’s best chance here. I don’t see him bullying Sean. Strickland is a big boy. He is so smooth too. I love how relaxed he is in there and I think that only benefits him against a non-power puncher like Krys.
Check out Sean hitting mitts with my former coach, John Wood.
Fast, powerful, and smooth. I love it. John is an absolute Jedi with the focus mitts. He holds for hours and hours every day for his fighters.
I think Sean wins this one pretty comfortably against Krys Jotko. As far as the other leg to our parlay, Merab Dvalishvili and Cody Stamann are both decision machines whether they are winning or losing.
They are wrestle-first fighters who don’t have many submission or even ground and pound wins on their respective records. The more I think about a winner of this fight, the more I think the (+400) on Cody to take a decision is excellent value.
I have Merab winning the fight because he is not a counter wrestler. He pressures and pressures. The man averages more than 1 takedown attempt per minute!
The two men have the same takedown percentage, the same takedown defense, virtually the same striking numbers offensively and defensively as well. The difference is the relentlessness of Merab. He doesn’t stop coming and most of the fight will probably be Cody defending some takedowns, and getting up from others.
The judges’ are going to have to give it to Merab in that case if Cody doesn’t land any damaging strikes.
That is not a bad play at all! For the purpose of the parlay party, though, I love this one to go to a decision.
You’re getting even money on this play which is excellent value. I say drop 2 units here because I think this parlay hits at least 6 times out of 10. That is a 10% edge in implied probability on the sportsbooks so we make a 2 unit play, 1 unit for every 5% edge we have.
Parlay #2: Add Loma Lookboonme: +144
Loma is a fighter that the UFC doesn’t mind pushing right now. She is the only Thailand-born fighter in the UFC right now so why not? She is fun to watch as well.
Fans get a chance to see a whole nother level of striking with a Muay Thai world champion.
— Loma Lookboonmee (@lomalookboonmee) February 28, 2021
I will stay off of my bias box for now but Muay Thai is king for MMA striking. Don’t let anyone tell you any different.
Loma’s opponent, Sam Hughes, is a boxer by trade and not much else. One thing I don’t like about Sam’s game against Loma, in particular, is Hughes’s willingness to clinch. She loves to press forward and clinch.
Just trust me, there. Adding in Loma to your parlay here gives you almost a 50% increase in your payout. Normally, I would say just stick with the two fight parlay but I really do like this week’s trifecta.
Bonus Parlay: Add Luana Pinhero for a total payout of (+302)
I think the Brazilian is going to be too much for the aging Randa Markos. The Canadian, Markos, is a long time veteran of the UFC and has been in there with some of the best. She is 12-12, though, for a reason.
The books have her at 60% to win and I think she takes 3 out of 4. That is a nice edge if you want to play her straight up as well but let’s extend a late invitation to our parlay party for the Brazilian and we can get paid!
Okay, no matter what happens at the weigh ins…
Last week didn’t work out as one leg was pulled from the card and we were left to enjoy the show with only straight picks.
Our methods of victory plays did incredible, though, and made up for any winnings we could have had from the parlay party. It was an extremely profitable week. We are on a tear right now, actually.
Heck, we are 34% over the past 141 picks spanning 6 months. That comes out to about 5 predictions a week which is a solid number. We could be a little more exact with 3 or 4 plays a week but we are rolling so let’s keep it up!
Get your bets in now and enjoy the party on Saturday night from Sin City!