UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Spike Carlyle vs Bill Algeo

The UFC is back this week with yet another show. Hey, I’m not complaining. I love it. Last week’s fight card was highly intriguing for me but I just didn’t see the betting value on most of the fights.

It was there, of course, but as hard as I thought about it, the more confused I felt. Usually, I can count on my ego to at least give me something but my mind has been mush recently.

This Fall, I suddenly lost one of my best friends at age 39 to obesity, more or less. Then a couple of days later, my girlfriend, who is in another country, was admitted to the hospital with a head injury from a motorbike wreck.

The good news is they scanned her cat and it doesn’t appear she had a concussion but is still pretty beat up. 2020 has been a nightmare for much of the planet and it doesn’t seem to be letting up so we can fight or go home.

I personally like to fight and I implore you to do the same.

Speaking of fights:

We have some good ones coming up this weekend. The main event features Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis, two massive heavyweights scrapping for a potential title shot.

Blaydes is a takedown master but he wasn’t able to put away Alexander Volkov in his last fight and towards the end, Curtis was breathing pretty heavily.

If you know anything about the game of Derrick Lewis, you understand that technically he isn’t a master of anything. Well, minus the knockout that is.

The third coast born Houston native, Lewis, holds the all-time UFC Heavyweight TKO record at 11. Derrick is notorious for having a bad gas tank but always keeping just enough to suddenly siphon the explosion for a big right hand.

This is how he broke the hearts of bettors around the world when he put away Alexander Volkov with just seconds remaining when he was clearly on his way to a unanimous decision loss.

He is always dangerous but Curtis Blaydes holds some all-time UFC Heavyweight records himself including most takedowns and most control time.

The main event is pretty interesting but the fight I am most excited about is the one I want to talk about today.

The Alpha Ginger Spike Carlyle is one of the most exciting new additions to the entire UFC roster. Incredibly explosive and powerful, Spike is a problem for anyone.

His opponent this Saturday almost shocked the world when he came in on short notice to fight long time Featherweight top 10 fighter, Ricardo Lamas. Bill had his moments including his patented knee to the face up the middle.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds brought to us by the online sportsbook BetOnline for this one and make an official play.

Spike Carlyle (-160) vs Bill Algeo (+140)

I taped this fight and came to the same conclusion as my original blind to the bettings odds thought. I said (-250) and the betting odds are at (-160) for Spike.

Let’s dig a little deeper to see if this should be a strong play or not.

Spike Carlyle lost to Billy Quarantillo in his UFC debut. That is a tough way to start but he himself was also a deep end dive by Billy in what was his first fight inside the Octagon as well.

Carlyle is a fast starter who slows as the fight goes on and Billy is a slow starter and a strong finisher in the later rounds. The two were opposites. Boxer/wrestler vs Muay Thai/BJJ and fast twitch vs slow twitch muscle fibers.

Spike almost got Billy out of there at the end of the first round but Billy Q made it through. After that, Quarantillo began to slowly take his opponent into deep waters and the ultra explosive Alpha Ginger had no choice but to gas.

Algeo is a similar fighter to Billy. He is taller and longer and possibly more dangerous on the feet with the use of his knees. I don’t necessarily think he is the better overall fighter though.

Algeo will have some length and leverage to defend the takedowns that Billy was short on but Algeo being tall and long will likely be at a major strength disadvantage. This is the biggest gap of skill or attributes in the fight and that is where we need to focus.

Carlye will be a UFC fan favorite very soon and they are giving him someone here he can beat because an 0-2 start is not a turn on for fans even if you’re as Alpha and Ginger as Spike.

I say Carlyle either grinds out a win or gets Bill out of there with some ground and pound.

My Pick
Spike Carlyle

In Conclusion

Spike Carlyle is a name I believe we will be hearing quite often for years to come. Even if he never contends for a world title, the man is incredibly entertaining and always comes to fight.

The level of explosion he possesses is bordering on some of the best I’ve ever seen from an athlete inside of the Octagon.

There’s nothing free in this world, though. If you want to be that fast then you aren’t going to have the best endurance. Look at Conor. People keep saying “Oh my gosh, his cardio is terrible! Why doesn’t he just fix that?

Okay, those people are 100% correct but he did go 5 rounds with a triathlete with a much bigger frame. The reason he gasses is because of how he trains. It looks like he has made the adjustments.

Hopefully, Spike Carlyle is following that blueprint. You have to sacrifice some speed if you want to add endurance. Watch a kickboxing match that doesn’t allow clinch fighting. Those guys are way quicker and twitchy than a true Muay Thai fighter who spends half of his time training slow twitch fibers in the clinch.

I remember being that new guy kickboxer and thinking, wow I’m much quicker than these guys and I might get my pot shots in but eventually when they got a hold of me, the energy drain was real.

I don’t think Bill Algeo is the guy to do that to Spike, though. Billy Quarantillo is a master of the grind and I think the strength disparity we will see on Saturday night will prove to be the difference.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.