UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Roman Dolidze vs John Allan

Georgia…

Just an old sweet song. I think we are going to be singing that song in the UFC for quite some time. 2020 has been the year for many firsts, of course, including the wave of success from Georgian fighters in the UFC.

I will spare you the list because, by the time you read this, the UFC will have probably signed another prospect from the Republic of Georgia.

I am pretty confident in Ilia Topuria to get it done against Damon Jackson on Saturday and almost there with his countryman Roman Dolidze as well.

  • I feel like I know what I am getting with Roman Dolidze albeit with a cardio question.
  • What to expect from John Allan is difficult to tell, who is coming off of a 1 year ban by USADA for steroids.

The Brazilian from the striking city of Curitiba, the hometown of Anderson Silva among others, has some nice hands. Being from a Chute Boxe lineage, John is aggressive, and I think he will also hold the technical advantage in the striking realm over Roman.

Let’s look at the UFC betting odds and make a prediction for Dolidze vs. Allan.

BetOnline.AG has the best line for both fighters! You have to love that.

Roman Dolidze (-190) vs John Allan (+165)

John Allan is in that nice underdog range of (+150) to (+200). I believe it was through 2018, and the books have gotten better since then, but up until that point, 57% of dogs in that range were winning.

The midrange is, of course, (+175) and those odds have an implied probability of 36%. That is such a big gap, it makes you feel like there must be something to it.

I would like to get behind the dog here because I think he is the better striker, and with Dolidze being kind of a wild man, there is a decent chance that the Chute Boxer catches him with something.

John Allan lost to Vinicius Moreira, though, on Dana White’s Contender Series. That is something I cannot overlook. I know it was his UFC debut, and Moreira is a huge man and a very dangerous submission artist but still…

Moreira went on to fight in the big show and may have had one of the shortest UFC careers ever for a guy who stepped inside the Octagon 3 times. He was finished in the first round in each of his UFC appearances.

Vinicius took him down 3 times in that fight, and that was the whole schtick for Vinny. He had the size and the grappling, just no wrestling…or striking for that matter.

Dolidze has a path to victory by pressing the action and his opponent up against the fence, clinching, and securing the takedown.

Getting the striker off of his feet and using what will likely be a strength advantage simply because he is Georgian, Roman can not only cruise down his path to victory but put a roadblock on the path of his Brazilian counterpart.

I think that’s what we are going to see here. As far as a round total or method of victory goes, we just don’t have enough UFC experience on either side to make an educated play.

Let’s take Roman at (-190) while he is still affordable.

My Pick
Roman Dolidze

In Conclusion

I believe Roman Dolidze has the sauce to beat John Allan. I wouldn’t bet more than 2 units, though, as these are both big men who can shut the lights off at any time.

Hopefully, Roman fights the smart fight and gets this one to the mat early on. From there, he may push for a sub or try to pound Allan out. I don’t believe that Dolidze is the type to cruise unless he feels like he could be in danger if he pushes.

On the feet, I think it will behoove the Georgian to get after the Brazilian with pressure. Both men have the ability to be the front foot fighter in this matchup, but I think Dolidze will be the one who succeeds in his efforts.

Roman by submission isn’t a bad flyer at 9 to 1!

For sure, throw a little bit on that play. Allan’s previous 3 losses have all come by way of the tap, and they’re giving us some 9 to 1 madness? You have to bet it. It’s a principle.

3 of Dolidze’s wins have come by way of submission, and 2 were heel hooks. I’m not saying he is going to heel hook the Brazilian, but it’s just more fuel for the 9 to 1 fire we could hit on Saturday!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.