UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Alexander Romanov vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima

I love MMA.

I love doing it.

I love watching it.

I love picking it.

I love writing these articles.

But, I freaking hate these names!

It’s not even Monday and I’m over here using the H word. Shame…shame… I guess the names of these two aren’t that bad. Neither fighter is Polish so that’s a win. So, Marcos Rogerio’s last name starts with lowercase?

I need to call my man Jon Anik. That dude is on it!

Admittedly, I did hate the play by play guy when he first got to the UFC because he wasn’t a full-on MMA expert on his first day. I know… How dare he!

His attention to detail and almost always finding the best word sets him apart. Now, I’m wanting the fighters or Joe Rogan working the color side to shut up.

Anik is talking, guys! Hush!

The fight we are breaking down today is low-level heavyweight and I do normally tell you guys to avoid these wagers at nearly all costs.

I did an extensive amount of tape, though, on Romanov and I was already pretty familiar with what de Lima brings to the Octagon.

The undefeated Alexander is still a little rough around the edges and has not faced very much in the form of solid competition on his journey to the UFC. He is a terrible stylistic matchup for his opponent, though, Brazil’s Marcos Rogerio de Lima.

De Lima has been taken down pretty easily by most of his opponents. He has an abysmal 35% takedown defense rate in his UFC career of 11 fights. That’s right up the ally for “King Kong” who loves to shoot in and quickly start the beat down.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds from BetOnline.AG and see if Romanov’s line is affordable.

Alexander Romanov (-125) vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+105)

This fight was closer to a pick’em earlier in the week but we are still getting good value if we decide to bet on Romanov because he opened as a staggering (-330) favorite.

So, why not follow the money with de Lima? This is MMA. This is the UFC. And this heavyweight so Romanov can for sure lose. I don’t think he will, though.

De Lima is good at catching guys on their way in should they fail to come correct.

Romanov has shown some sloppy forward striking in his career but lately in his fights, his entry has been on those legs and his opponents have hit the mat with haste.

Romanov is also the younger man with far far less miles on his body and chin than de Lima who is just 5-6 in his UFC career.

The fighters he has defeated inside the Octagon have a combined record of 11-20 in the UFC and most of them are already gone.

Please Note:
I think Romanov can be top ten in the heavyweight division. I have seen his height listed at 6’ even and also at 6’2”. That’s a big difference at heavyweight so it’ll be interesting to see how he looks at the weigh-in and on fight night.

King Kong does like to get guys out of there early on and he is an explosive guy who weighs in at the 265-pound limit so I imagine his gas tank isn’t the best.

De Lima’s gas tank is notoriously weak, though, as well.

I might look at live betting de Lima if he makes it out of the first round and it looks like the Moldovan is about to hit a wall with his cardio and muscle endurance but right now, we have great odds on the big man.

I think he gets the first-round stoppage. I just hope he manages to stay relaxed so that he doesn’t have an adrenaline dump like we have seen lately out of those bigtime first-round finishers.

My Pick
Alexander Romanov

In Conclusion

Don’t blink, y’all.

The under 1.5 rounds has been bet all the way down to (-160) or else I would jump all over it. 5dimes.eu has the over 1.5 at (+145) now! That is pretty hot and tempting or PHAT as we said in the 90’s.

Sure, I think this one will end early but with the odds close to 1.5 to 1, you only need a sprinkle to have a good payout so why not? You have to go where the value is.

De Lima has never been TKO’ed in his UFC career. He got subbed instead so I suppose he probably would have beaten down had he not given up his neck.

I do really like Romanov at (-125), though. I think he wins two out of three which puts him at (-200). That’s plenty to make a wise play here.

Get your bets in now because I think his odds will soar the closer we get to Saturday night’s action.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.