Upset alert! Maybe…
I know we had more than a month off due to the quarantines but the past but this weekend will mark 14 days without fighting.
That should never happen!
The UFC is just too much fun not to watch, too profitable not to bet, and what else is on?
I get it. You may want to go out to eat.
The girlfriend or wife is in need of a date night.
That’s totally cool.
Just do that on Friday.
Saturdays are for the UFC.
THIS SATURDAY ?
— UFC (@ufc) May 26, 2020
Today, I want to look at the fight between Miami-native Roosevelt Roberts and “Chata Tuska” Brok Weaver.
Roberts is a heavy favorite here mostly because of how bad Brok Weaver looked in his UFC debut win.
Yes, he won but it was from an illegal knee to the face on the ground.
Brok came in with some hype behind him. He is a forward fighter who consistently brings excitement to the cage every time he steps in there.
His boxing, pressure, and toughness are his best traits.
He is a big guy too at 6’ tall in the Lightweight division.
His opponent, though, while less physically imposing, is even taller at 6’1”.
The reach is the same, though, at 73 inches.
It’s almost always the fighter with the wider shoulders who is able to control their opponent up against the cage.
Let’s take a look at the betting odds from BetOnline.AG for this fight and make our predictions on Brok Weaver vs Roosevelt Roberts.
Roosevelt Roberts (-345) vs Brok Weaver (+285)
Boy, BetOnline.AG is really killing it lately with these betting lines!
It seems like for every fight now, they have the best odds available. And there are definitely some great fights this weekend!
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) May 22, 2020
You can even live bet with those guys as well. The return on your money is even better with live betting.
I touched on each fighter earlier.
Let’s go a little deeper.
- Roberts just turned 26 this year and has only been training mixed martial arts for about 3 years.
- He is tall, slim, throws straight punches, and fights measured with composure.
- You don’t see him come outside of his shell much.
He isn’t going to give up his frame and most advantageous striking position very often.
Jon Jones, while much more dynamic and skilled, is a good comparison.
How many knockouts does Jon have with his hands?
How many times has he been knocked out?
He stays in his frame.
I preach this to my students every week.
Green students’ egos are starting to feel pretty good and they want to shoulder roll and slip everything.
That’s not how it works.
Your stance is your best position to most efficiently damage your opponent while simultaneously receiving minimal damage.
That stance is scientifically designed and subsequently calibrated by you.
Why would you come out of that stance and frame if you don’t have to?
Sometimes doing so can help you score a knockout but the guys who are able to pull that kind of stuff off, the TJ Dillashaw’s of the world, are incredibly gifted athletically.
Roosevelt Roberts doesn’t appear to be very fast or very strong either.
I like how he fights.
He and I are the same size and I do the same thing.
In sparring, I can get away with it more often than not because of my length and staying relaxed also helps.
In a fight, it’s different. If you back up more than 1 or 2 steps consecutively and your opponent has similar range, they’re going to catch you with something.
- For 1, they can move faster going forward than you can move back.
- For 2, eventually, you’re back is going to be up against the cage. Now you’re a sitting duck.
This brings me to my next point.
The UFC will be using a smaller Octagon for this event since the Apex facility isn’t an actual arena.
Brok is 15-4 fighting out of Mobile, Alabama.
His nickname, Chata Tuska, means Choctaw Warrior.
It’s fine if you don’t like my pick today but you really have to see this fight.
There are some other good ones as well but I think Brok Weaver is going to surprise some people on Saturday.
All I keep hearing is how poor of a performance he had in his first UFC fight.
Betting tip: A below average performance is almost always expected from a UFC debutant.
He did look flat during the first minute of the fight when they were striking but again, in the words of the GOAT Anderson Silva “Ees normal”.
His opponent was a short stocky wrestler who bullied him up against the cage and did a great job of locking down Weaver’s leg.
The guillotine attempt was close. I think he learns, though, that he waited a little too long to get up.
We will see.
Roberts doesn’t step off line enough to score and evade. The reach is the same and the height is 1 inch difference.
Roberts does fight very tall. I think Weaver can touch his chin.
The cage is small. He can make this an ugly fight.
It is going to take some effort, though, to stay on the front foot.
I give Weaver a 33% chance of winning this fight.
His odds are at (+285) which denotes an implied probability of 26%.
A 7% edge is nice. It’s not ideal but a few bucks on Chata Tuska to bully the slight-framed Roberts isn’t the worst idea.
There is this, though.
Roberts opened at (-200). That’s right where I had it capped. 66% for Roosevelt so it’s not a great bet but not a bad one either.
You’re flipping a coin.
Brok Weaver opened at (+180). He doesn’t have value there but at (+285), I think he does.
I did find Roberts by decision for even money (+100) over at 5dimes.eu.
Roberts has 3 consecutive decisions but prior to that, he tapped out two guys in a row.
Weaver has only been finished once in his last 10 fights.
We have good value on both sides.
I will go with Weaver to get the victory here. The smaller Octagon means that’s two fewer steps Roberts can take before he hits the fence if he’s backing straight up.
I like the value on the dog Weaver, here, to get it done in an ugly one.
I think they are calling it UFC on ESPN 9 now.
They change the names of the various Fight Night events several times/week.
There’s UFC on ESPN, UFC on ESPN+, Fight Night with the city name, Fight Night with the fighter names.
I think Fight Night at The APEX sounds pretty cool but that’s just me.
The fight between Roosevelt Roberts and Brok Weaver could be one way traffic.
Roosevelt is only 26 and has not been training very long so it is very likely that he is still improving at a solid rate.
Brok Weaver, while much more seasoned in the game, is still just 28 himself.
- He never lost his first fight that everyone is saying was so bad for him.
- He was trying to get back to his feet after fishing for a few guillotines.
We saw less than a minute of striking and he got bullied a bit and also held down without much ground and pound by a shorter stockier guy.
Roberts is a completely different fighter. Maybe he takes Weaver down but I think Brok can at least control the cage.
Don’t bet much here but Chata Tuska is worth a few bucks.