UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Sean Strickland vs Jack Marshman

Wow, fight Island was spectacular, wasn’t it?

They kicked things off crowning a new light heavyweight champion, Pole, Jan Blachowicz, and in the main event, Israel Adesanya physically explained the concept of levels to Brazilian challenger Paulo Costa.

Then, we got to see one of the best versions of Holly Holm ever. Cory Sandhagen finally got that signature win with a spinning heel kick knockout of former UFC bantamweight world champion, Marlon Moraes.

How can we forget Joaquin Buckley’s one-legged jump spinning back kick to the face that starched the prospect, Impa Kasanganay?

Next was Brian Ortega 2.0. That is a scary version of him, ladies and gentlemen.

And this past Saturday, we got to see Khabib Nurmagomedov fight for the first and according to him, last time without his father by his side. The Eagle blew through Justin Gaethje takedown defense and the two men’s respective submission prowess was several levels apart.

The talk all week in the mixed martial arts and fighting world has been: Does Dagestani star Khabib Nurmagomedov deserve the title of the greatest fighter of all time?

We can’t answer that question today because we need to move on to another retirement fight weekend. This time, though, at least we know it’s coming.

Anderson Silva at the ripe old age of 45 is finally calling it quits and this Saturday night from Las Vegas will be his final mixed martial arts fight in what was arguably the greatest career of any MMA fighter ever.

If you have read much of my work already, then you are well aware that I am a massive Anderson Silva fan. Ever since I saw him win the title over Rich Franklin, that was my guy and we had some really really good years.

After the age of 38, though, Anderson has not resembled even a shell of himself. He is a guy who relied on his reflexes more than anything inside the Octagon and now they’re gone with the wins.

Are dad jokes that bad considered unacceptable if you don’t have children? Asking for a friend.

Today, let’s focus on the fight between Sean Strickland and Welshman, Jack Marshman. Sean is coming back from a full 2-year layoff after he was involved in a horrifying motorcycle accident. The Welshman is mostly a brawler and if Strickland keeps it standing, Jack has a chance to catch him.

online sportsbook BetOnline has the betting odds for this fight. Let’s look at those and make a prediction for the scrap between Marshman and Strickland. Wow, fight Island was spectacular, wasn’t it?

Sean Strickland (-330) vs Jack Marshman (+270)

This is a huge mismatch. Sean Strickland is coming back from 2 years off and that is already built into the price. I imagine that is good enough for at least a dollar so you’re looking at a (-450) favorite here.

Sean Strickland is 20-3 and those three losses were to Santiago Ponzinibbio, Kamaru Usman, and Elizeu Zaleski. The latter was a spinning heel kick to the head and I believe Sean gets his hand raised over the Brazilian 2 out of every 3 fights.

Kamaru is the champ and Santiago is one of if not the best striker in the division.

Definitely respectable losses for Sean but wins over Tom Breese, Nordine Taleb, and Court McGee during the same time frame are solid. The UFC is giving him a very beatable opponent this weekend.

Jack Marshman has been on quite the losing skid. He has fought 6 times inside the Octagon over the past 3 years and has arguably lost all but one of those fights. He has a puncher’s chance here against Strickland but that’s about it.

Sean Strickland, although not known as a takedown artist, has a 57% accuracy rate getting his opponents to the mat. Jack Marshman, though, has a 20% takedown defense percentage. That is some of the worst I have seen and he hasn’t been able to get off the bottom either.

(-330) is pretty darn expensive and I’m almost ready to pay it because I believe that Sean will be smart here and get this fight to the mat fairly quickly and probably dispose of Marshman at some point within 15 minutes.

I like Strickland inside the distance here. He will either hurt him on the feet or get a rear-naked choke or arm triangle on the ground.

He was (+190) for a finish win either by submission, DQ, or TKO. His odds have gone down but still hold value, in my opinion, at (+165).

That’s my lucky number until it doesn’t hit because that was the payout for Khabib submission. It wasn’t really a lucky call, though. He said “Father’s plan” and that’s all you needed to know.

Finishing Justin Gaethje off with a triangle choke, father’s favorite submission, was pretty darn special.

We can get any method of victory as long as it comes before the final bell and I would probably bet this at even money so the (+165) is quite the treat.

My Pick
Strickland wins inside the distance

In Conclusion

This is one heck of a historic seven-day period. It was only a few nights ago that Khabib Nurmagomedov defeated Justin Gaethje to defend his UFC World Lightweight Title for the third time.

Now, we get to see the final fight in the career of Anderson The Spider Silva. This guy was so good that people who were “fans” of his were hoping he would lose just because they wanted to see new blood in there.

I have never understood that logic. I don’t think you can call yourself a fan of a fighter or team if you are hoping they will lose.

For the fight between Sean Strickland and Jack Marshman, I don’t think we are going to need much hope for a loss from Marshman. We do need a finish for a play to hit but I think Sean gets the stoppage 60% of the time.

The online sportsbooks have him at less than 40% so a play here is warranted. Let’s just throw 1 unit here on Sean because this is still a method of victory wager and who knows, he may go in there and jab and move around/lay and pray to a comfortable decision.

It is his first fight back in a while and the potential for an adrenaline dump is there as well as knocking off some rust in the first stanza.

Get your bets in now because I think this is the best play for this matchup and the line will likely continue to move south.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.

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