UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs Aspinall Betting Pick and Odds

The UFC Fight Night 204 Main Event is weighed in as this is your last chance to place your bets for Aspinall vs Volkov. The fight goes down on March 19th, 2022 at 6:15 PM ET. These two heavyweights are both high level kickboxers with dangerous ground striking. We’ve gathered the stats and odds to bring you our top betting picks and advice on prop bets for more lucrative tickets. 
If you’re looking to fill your ticket with other fights from this card, check out the UFC Fight Night full card betting odds and picks. 

Aspinall vs Volkov Betting Pick

Both fighters are knockout artists with aggressive styles, and both are on the cusp of UFC title fights. Still, the UFC looks to the most exciting fighters for a paycheck and I think that Volkov is seeing this. Aspinall will likely win via knockout, so his knockout prop bet is another good choice for those looking for higher paying odds. If we’re focused solely on which bet is most likely, the ‘Fight Doesn’t go the distance’ prop covers the outcomes we expect from either man.


Tale of the Tape for Aspinall vs Volkov 

Fighter Alexander ‘Drago’ Volkov  Tom Aspinall 
Age 33 28
Height 6’7’’ 6’5’’
Reach/Stance 80’’, Orthodox  78’’, Orthodox 
Record 34-9 11-2
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/4 1/3
Fighter Training Camp Strela Team, Various  Team Kaobon 

Volkov’s losses to Gane and Blaydes where both fighters with 80’’ reaches. Aspinall should struggle to get inside Volkov’s range, similar to the Derrick Lewis fight. Lewis has a 79” inch reach and spent most of Round 2 unable to connect at all in their 2018 bout. 
I believe that Volkov was in his prime from 2017 to 2019. He showed his age in the fight with Gane, where he was unable to keep the pace as Gane put more work in rounds three through five. 
Volkov’s last three wins are Overeem, Harris and Tybura are all good heavyweights, but they’re also older fighters, Tybura being the youngest at 36. 
Aspinall’s youth and improving athleticism will see him winning in the late rounds, and making  a third round stoppage via submission (probably from exhaustion) or KO are good bets. 

UFC Fight Night Betting Odds

These are the most recent odds, most of which have held their position in the past few days of betting. Volkov by points dropped from +300 to +285 after weigh-ins, presumably because of his appearance and physical condition. 

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Tom Aspinall Money Line -126
Alexander Volkov Money Line +106
Over 2 ½ Rounds -170
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +140
Goes the Distance ‘No’  -175
Volkov by Points  +285
Volkov by TKO  +300
Aspinal by Points +450
Aspinall by TKO  +185
Aspinal by Submission +700
Volkov in Round 1 TKO  +1100
Aspinall in Round 2 +650
Volkov inside the Distance +275
Aspinall inside the Distance  +125

We’ve detailed the odds history in our full preview, so let’s focus on recent performances. 
Aspinall has four UFC finishes in four fights with only one going to the second round. All four wins fall into the under 1 ½ Rounds category. I would argue that his second round finish of Arlovski is a comparable fight to Volkov vs Overeem. 
Overeem was finished in the second round by Volkov via TKO. Recently, the only wins we’ve seen go to decision are Hardy, Blaydes, Gane and Tybura. Among them, Gane has the highest finishing percentage at 50%. 
Volkov tends to match the pace of the fighter he’s up against. So your Under 2 ½ Round bet makes more sense because we know Aspinall’s pace. 

Can Volkov Lose via Finish?

Volkov’s only knockout loss since 2016 was to Derrick Lewis. Four years later, Lewis has escaped his prime, as has Volkov. Aspinall Has a better finishing percentage than Lewis and brings a similar power to the ring. Blaydes and Gane both fought safe fights, afraid of Volkov’s power. Aspinall has a better chance of knocking him out or wearing him down than either fighter, simply because his goal is to finish everyone he faces. It’s not just his style, it’s his strategy for a payday. 
The +125 Aspinal inside the distance is my value bet, the bet I would place if I was looking to take on a bit more risk to maximize my payout. 

Aspinall looks smoother than ever in his recent training footage.

How can Volkov Beat Aspinall?

Volkov has knockout power and Aspinall keeps a low hand position. It’s a recipe for an upset, especially considering Volkov’s kicks from range, which won him the fight against Walk Harris but have showed up as a tool in other fighters to soften up fighters for the finish. 
This is a massive step up for Aspinall, one that may prove to be too much too soon. Even Aspinall’s head coach called it “A test. We’ll see if he’s ready.’ The Kaobon instructor is a pragmatic man, but I’m surprised at his metered approach to saying that Volkov can win this fight if Aspinall isn’t careful. Volkov’s money line isn’t an unreasonable bet, and at +106 Volkov fans may get their last underdog money line for a fighter this low ranked for a long time, win or lose. 

Betting on UFC Fight Night 204

If you’re new to UFC betting look at our top betting sites to get started. The UFC has been ensuring their main events oscillate between longer, competitive fights, and quick finishes at the highest levels. With last weekend’s two five round fights at the end of the night, it’s no surprise to see highlight finishers topping off the card. Beware the Over prop and happy betting!

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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