UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Yan Xiaonan vs Claudia Gadelha

Claudia has been a cash cow for me for a long time.

My record betting on her and against her is great.

3-0 with her and 1-0 against her.

Her style is almost exactly what you’re looking for when you searching for that money fighter who you love to back.

That style is relentless wrestling and most importantly, never accepting that this fight is going to be a striking match.

I see it far too often.

Fighters who have those grappling skills you are looking for.

  • Good takedowns.
  • Top control.
  • And or a quality Submission game.

However, if they are unsuccessful on their first 1 or 2 takedown attempts, they stop trying.

I understand that sometimes you realize that a brick wall is a brick wall and you have to start thinking for plan B.

A fight is 15 minutes, though, and if your opponent can shift your confidence in just the first 90 seconds, then you’re probably gonna have a bad time.

Claudia, no matter how hopeless her journey to get the fight to the mat seems, she sticks to the plan.

And you know what happens?

Many times, by the 3rd round, her opponents are getting weaker physically from defending so much and their brains are beginning to bug them as well thinking “I need to be offensive! I’ve been defending this whole time!”

That’s when they make a mistake and Claudia usually gets her stamp on the fight and that’s how she wins close decisions.

  • Gadelha does appear to have peaked in her fighting career and on the way down, albeit slightly and slowly.
  • Her opponent, Yan Xiaonan from China, is quite well-rounded but it remains a mystery whether or not she will be able to defend the nonstop takedown attempts from the Brazilian.

This fight is still months away but I have been eying it for a while now so I wanted to let you guys know what I think about a very interesting matchup of two high level martial artists.

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this women’s contest and they are fairly close.

Let’s take a look at those betting lines and see who has the best value.

Yan Xiaonan (-130) vs Claudia Gadelha (+110)

Unfortunately, there aren’t any props, round totals, or method of victory betting lines available for this fight just yet but the moneyline is interesting enough to me.

It has actually done a 180 from where the betting line opened.

  • Claudia Gadelha was the (-130) favorite.
  • Yan was the (+110) underdog.

The Brazilian is coming off of a win but it wasn’t an emphatic one by any means.

In fact, her loss to Angela Hill was downright controversial.

When Angela first got into the UFC, she was still very green and her non striking skills particularly her takedown defense have improved dramatically.

That is the problem betting on Gadelha.

If she can’t get the takedown, you’re in trouble.

What I love about Claudia though is that she won’t stop trying and she’s got a lot of gas in that tank.

As it turns out, offensive wrestling even if unsuccessful, is a tremendous striking defense.

Yan can box.

She is aggressive.

I think she has a good frame and build for the weight class.

I’m just not seeing what everyone else is seeing.

I don’t think we can compare her to her countrywoman and UFC Women’s Strawweight Champion Weili Zhang.

She is not on that level and stylistically, this is not a great fight for her.

Xiaonan is 4-0 in her UFC career with her biggest win coming against the previously mentioned Angela Hill.

Yan was saved by the bell at the end of the first round, though, when Overkill Hill had a triangle locked up from the bottom position.

She could have taken the arm or just finished with the choke but the bell rang and a frustrated Hill was forced to let her opponent go.

Angela took Yan down in that fight too.

Hill has improved on that skill but I don’t rate her nearly as high as Claudia when talking takedowns as the Brazilian is one of the best in the UFC at getting her opponents to the mat.

If she can’t get Yan down, though, I think it’s going to be a long night for her.

Please Note:
I love that Gadelha is training at one gym consistently with some other girls like Sijara Eubanks who just got a major upset victory over the scary Julia Avila.

Claudia was searching for a home in the United States for a while after she left her native Brazil and she appears to have found it in New Jersey with head coach Mark Henry alongside the prototype as I like to call him and recent winner himself, Frankie Edgar.

The team has mo on their side and Claudia is only 31.

I hear a lot of people, myself included sometimes, say that it is time to fade her but I don’t know if we are there yet.

There aren’t many fighters better with the body lock takedown up against the fence than Gadelha.

We are getting her at plus money too?

I’ll take it.

My Pick
Claudia Gadelha!

In Conclusion

This is a big fight.

I’m not sure if it is going to be a main event or not but I would totally be down with it.

Claudia brings the pressure every time she steps in there and her relentless nature is something I truly admire.

Please Note:
Yan Xiaonan is a little bit sharper on her feet than her opponent. The Chinese superstar also packs more power in her hands. If this fight stays standing, I definitely favor Yan.

Getting Claudia at (+130), though, against anyone not named Joanna Jerdjzyczyk.

Wow, I spelled it right on the first try…

We only need to cap the fight in the low 50s for Claudia to get the edge on the sportsbooks we need and I will take those odds all day when I am getting the stylistic betting advantage.

Get your bets in now, guys, and enjoy the fights!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.