UFC Betting Pick: Nassourdine Imavov vs Jordan Williams

Here is a fun fight for you guys.

It could go either way.

Jordan Williams has a lot of momentum on his side having recently won by TKO as an underdog on Dana White’s Contender Series.

You could also argue that he is on an emotional roller coaster and what goes up, must come down.

I’m a bit manic depressive myself so I understand these fluctuations but it happens to the most even, just not as often as us crazy people.

I have no idea where Jordan Williams is with his mental and emotional health but we know he isn’t afraid to show said emotions.

I realize it’s an incredibly emotional end to the biggest fight of his career but that guy has some fire inside of him!

That knockout came partly because of the straight up and down stance of his opponent as well as Rodrigues’s punching down and leaving a massive window in between his shoulder/arm and his chin.

Watch the video again and you will see it. As a coach, it literally burns my eyeballs.

Shoulder to your cheek and look through your brow!

Don’t punch down!

I went to a Georges St Pierre seminar after he had lost and won back his Welterweight World Title against Matt Serra.

I also went to a Serra seminar at the same place when he had the strap.

During GSP’s seminar, though, he talked about why he got caught against Serra. Georges does not have a big frame at all and he was used to being the shorter fighter at 170 pounds.

Serra is down there, though. The spunky Italian is a great dude and a lot of fun but not tall.

Georges didn’t change his level by bending his knees and because of that, it was impossible to throw an accurate efficient jab downward without leaving a giant window for Serra to land the overhand right.

It doesn’t have to be the chin either as Georges hit the temple and his equilibrium went astray.

So, for betting purposes in the future, if you see a fighter who stands tall and punches down leaving a big window like Rodrigues did and they’re fighting a shorter power puncher… You know what to do.

Jordan’s opponent on Saturday, Nassourdine Imavov has a name that ends with a V.

Observant, aren’t I?

It’s a worthwhile observation in today’s world of MMA.

There are the Zelim Imadaev’s of the UFC but he is still inexperienced at 8-3 and mostly criticized because he isn’t living up to the accomplishments of his Dagestani brothers.

We don’t know about Nassourdine Imavov yet as this is just his UFC debut but The Russian Sniper looks to be very comfortable and relaxed when he fights.

Williams is explosive, though, so you don’t want to get caught lazy in there as being too relaxed is a thing.

He is undefeated, though, and much more defensively sound than Jordan William’s last opponent.

Let’s take a look at the tale of the tape for these two killers.

Nassourdine Imavov Jordan Williams
Fight Record: 9-3 Fight Record: 8-2
Age: 25 Age: 30
Height: 6’3” Height: 6’1”
Reach: 75” Reach: 75”
From: Dagestan, Russia From: Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, USA
Fight Camp: MMA Factory Fight Camp: Nor-Cal Fighting Alliance

It should be noted along with the measurables that Jordan Williams doesn’t cut weight for his fights because he is a diabetic.

I trained with a guy in Vegas who was Type 1 his entire life as well and he always had to fight bigger guys because of it. It sucks, yes, but never having to cut weight…

That adds back the years to your life you’re losing by getting concussed by larger opponents. Nah, just talking smack. I wish fighters didn’t cut any weight at all.

It takes your brain longer to rehydrate than the rest of your body hence the hangover headache that hangs around the entire day even after you get your fluids up.

That changes the viscosity in your cerebrospinal fluid which in turn makes it easier for your brain to touch your skull causing a possible concussion.

If you’re not familiar with the MMA Factory, that’s because it is a fairly new establishment, allegedly, in Paris, France. For years, mixed martial arts was illegal in France but now we are good to go.

I do give the French a hard time but they give us Americans the same kinda crap. We can both be a little arrogant for sure.

Francis Ngannou and fellow UFC heavyweight Ciryl Gane both train there along with Veronica Macedo.

The French aren’t exactly known for their heart like the Mexicans are but almost all the French-trained fighters I have seen are extremely technical.

If you want to see some clean Muay Thai from a farang or foreigner, look up Fabio Pinca.

Enough about the French!

Nassourdine Imavov may have some of that slick blood in him as evidenced by his first name.

He does hail from Dagestan and I know it seems like we are getting spammed with fighters from that region at this point but they are that good.

The late Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, the father of Khabib, left a martial arts and fighting legacy like none other in Dagestan, Russia. We are going to see more and more Dagestani fighters in the UFC.

They always bring it and many of them train their striking in Thailand, particularly Phuket where you will find the Russian language on many food menus.

Jordan Williams was getting pieced up by Gregory Rodrigues in his last fight before he got “mister stand up straight” against the cage and let his hands go.

It took several shots on the button, though, for the big man to drop.

Let’s look at the betting line brought to us by the kind folks over at the industry leaders, BetOnline.AG, for this fight, and make our play.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds brought to us by BetOnline for this one and make a prediction on either a winner or a round total.

Moneyline

  • Williams -130
  • Imavov +110
Round Total

  • Over 2.5 (+120)
  • Under 2.5 (-160)
Decision Prop

  • Fight goes (+140)
  • Fight doesn’t go (-180)

Those round totals are decision props are interesting but I think they are there for a reason. Both guys bring it. They each love to fight and will likely do just that.

I could see Imavov spamming takedowns and control time against the cage for the safer route to victory. He is The Russian Sniper, though, and Williams is very hittable.

Why the online sportsbooks have this kid as the favorite, I don’t know. Recency bias on blast.

Imavov opened as an even bigger underdog at (+165). Unfortunately for us, that number disappeared quicker than it was posted. The books screwed up here and Williams might get it done but I will take an undefeated Dagestani at plus money any day.

Period.

The opportunity doesn’t come about very often, obviously, but I’m all about it. Jordan Williams is a good fighter and he may come out there, look amazing, and win decisively.

The bottom line, though, is this: I give Nassourdine the win about 65% of the time. That is way more than enough of an edge on the sportsbooks to make a solid betting play on Imavov.

My Pick
Nassourdine Imavov

In Conclusion

Yea, man.

You better be pretty special to be the favorite over an undefeated Dagestani fighter. Well, that or you need to be the one with Octagon experience.

I suppose technically, Jordan does have 3 fights inside the Octagon but I should have said UFC. He is 1-1-1 on Dana White’s Contender Series with one win taken away from him due to a positive test for marijuana.

He has yet to fight for the UFC, though, so he isn’t going to have some magical experience advantage over his fellow UFC newcomer.

Nassourdine is going to be bringing the brutish grappling from Dagestan paired with clean crisp precision striking from France.

Jordan Williams is a great athlete and a solid mixed martial artist but I see Imavov winning 2 out of 3.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.