UFC Fight Island Betting Pick: Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown

You know, I am so incredibly happy that the UFC brass has decided to put this one on. Both guys are high level Muay Thai strikers but are each well past their prime. So, why not make the fight?

Carlos Condit is going to be 37 in a few months and Matt Brown turned 40 yesterday!

Both men are up there in age but it is Matt Brown who is coming off of a knockout loss while Carlos Condit is coming off of his first win in over 5 years! I promise they both have some left in the tank, though. The Natural Born Killer Carlos Condit was coming off of a 2 year hiatus before he fought Court McGee late in 2020. The fight was lined very closely to start at pretty much even odds. Then, the money comes in on Court and we end up getting Carlos at (+115).

That was a great line considering I had him capped at (-150) which denotes an implied probability of a 60% chance of winning the fight. I think that was about right. He may win 7 out of 10 against Court but the important thing is we got the win.

Condit looked great but it was against someone tailor-made for him to defeat other than Court stealing some time in the clinch. He had to catch Carlos first, though, and the NBK’s footwork was as smooth and effective as ever.

That was the difference in the fight. One guy plodding and one guy dancing circles around him. Now, we might get a similar result with this fight between Condit and Brown because Matt is somewhat of a plodder himself.

He throws heavy leather, though! That’s something that Court wasn’t offering up in the slightest against Condit who simply wasn’t there to be hit by the time the sloth-like Court McGee could get to him.

Matt can crack, though!

I remember hearing stories at Syndicate MMA from some of the regulars when I first started training in Las Vegas. Roy Nelson was there every day and one time I saw Roy knock Cory Hendricks’ tooth out in sparring.

It was a friendly affair so it was obviously acceptable if Cory wanted to take some time. His tooth was just knocked out. He just picked it up and threw it over the fence on the ground and kept going.

It was around that very moment that I realized maybe I wasn’t the fighter I thought I was. I surely enjoyed the whole thing and I would like to think if I had a tooth knocked out in a fight, I would continue without regard.

In the training room, though?!

I’m sorry but I’m calling a timeout and it’s highly likely that would be my last round for the day. So, I asked Cory if Roy had hit him harder than he had ever been hit in training.

He told me no. Matt Brown hit him harder than anyone has before, fight or training, and The Immortal had on 16 oz gloves.

The guy can really crack but it isn’t going to be easy to get Carlos Condit out of there with strikes. Only one man has done that before and that was from a highly effective leg kick from Tyron Woodley that blew Condit’s knee apart immediately.

Please Note:
So, of all the killers he has been in there within his Hall of Fame career, Carlos Condit has never been stopped by TKO or KO other than this instance when he had an injury. Never once was Carlos cracked with a body shot, head kick, or punch that led to him being put away.

All the high level guys he fought and the fact that most of those contests played out on the feet make this even more impressive.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for this fight brought to us by BetOnline.AG. Then, we can make our prediction on a winner or perhaps a round total.

Carlos Condit (-160) vs Matt Brown (+140)

Man, this line sure moved from where it first opened. This was a pick’em back on Christmas Eve! Some money came in quickly on Carlos and this betting line has been where it is now ever since.

I think they got it right although, I might have Carlos up there as a (-200) favorite. That sounds like a lot but we just have to say that he wins 2 out of the 3 times these two men fight and I think that is a pretty safe bet.

Matt Brown doesn’t just hit hard. He has skills for sure. His Thai clinch is exceptional and he has been able to put people away with elbows from the striking realm on the feet. He is also very tough with an incredibly strong mind.

I think this is going to work against him here because getting put to sleep at nearly 40 years of age is not a good sign of things to come for his durability moving forward. The Immortal Matt Brown fought undefeated prospect, Miguel Baeza, back in May on one of the first shows back from the lockdown. Matt looked okay early on but Miguel Baeza proved too fast and explosive as well as technical for the elder Brown. Miguel was just 27 at the time of this fight and when you have a 12 year age gap, that is almost too much to overcome for anyone.

Neither Brown nor Condit has really been able to do anything in the past 5 years. Carlos just got his first win in half of a decade and Matt has only defeated Ben Saunders and Diego Sanchez, two fighters who are not at all UFC caliber any longer.

I am on the side of Carlos Condit here. If we were in a smaller Octagon, I may lean towards Matt Brown cutting off the cage and slugging it out with Condit to win a close decision but we are back on Fight Island in the 30 foot Octagon.

That should be plenty of room for Carlos to employ his patented circle and strike tactics for the win. He throws with more volume than Brown as well. Carlos’s last four losses came against all grapplers and he has an opponent in Matt Brown that he knows will strike with him.

This should be one for the hardcore fans who have been watching for at least the past decade. They will remember Carlos’s fight with Nick Diaz when the Stockton slapper asked Carlos during the fight

“Oh, we’re throwing spinning sh#t now?”

Classic Nick Diaz.

Carlos won that fight moving backward the entire time. That was highly impressive to do that against a pressure fighter with such great hands and an everlasting gas tank. Matt is similar to Nick in that he will come forward.

He isn’t quite as durable as Nick Diaz, though. Matt has been stopped by strikes in his previous three Octagon appearances. That’s not good but an even worse sign that he had fought over 40 times with 12 losses, none of which came by way of KO or TKO.

A durable guy that can hit hard who has sneaky good technique is now getting hit and getting hurt by shots that he was walking through a few years before. He isn’t the same guy and with the matchup the way it is, I like Carlos to dance to a decision.

Matt is just such a kill or be killed kinda fighter that he may get himself knocked out. I could see a head kick coming from Carlos as Matt tends to keep his hands low. Let’s see what kind of method of victory betting odds we are getting over at BetOnline.AG.

Condit is (+175) to win a decision and (+330) and formerly (+430), we should also note, to win by KO or TKO.

I don’t think he will get a submission on Matt Brown so we may be safe avoiding the “Condit by stoppage” betting line.

Dan Hardy, Rory McDonald, Dong Hyun Kim, Martin Kampmann, and Thiago Alves are mostly all pretty good strikers and considered durable as well and CC was able to get the KO or TKO on each of them.

These are some of his most recent wins as well. I understand him not finishing Court McGee because he has only been stopped by strikes once in 29 fights including 10 losses and that was by Santiago Ponzinibbio.

I believe Condit having a little more space to operate along with Matt Brown’s chin being nearly gone will give an edge – but it is Matt’s aggression that will potentially lead to him getting hurt and finished.

Please Note:
(+330) gives Carlos a 23% implied probability to get the TKO finish. I think he has about a 40% chance of putting Brown away. If Matt were a non action fighter who wasn’t kill or be killed, then maybe we take Condit by decision at the tempting (+175).

Matt has had 7 consecutive contests end inside the distance. That is enough evidence for me to pull the trigger on Carlos winning by TKO.

The Bets
Condit to Win!
Condit by TKO!

In Conclusion

I know we have Carlos Condit to win by TKO but as a fan, I really wouldn’t mind seeing this one play out for a while. It really is interesting to see these two scrap. They are old but that’s the beauty of it.

One thing I don’t like to see is one of my heroes who is 40 years old and nothing close to the fighter they once were and match them up with a young killer like say Miguel Baeza who starched Matt Brown.

I guess he wasn’t completely starched. That would mean stiff I would assume but the referee jumped in so quickly. Matt came forward and Baeza hit him with a check hook and then one more when Brown hit the ground

When they start falling from just one shot and it used to take 50 to weaken them, we have a problem.

It wasn’t pretty at the end of 2020 with Jacare Souza and Junior dos Santos both succumbing to one shot, rocked, and immediately finished.

I believe we will see the same from Matt’s chin. He could knock out Carlos Condit but nobody ever has and I think it will be very difficult for Matt to win a decision.

I want you guys to size your bets on this fight like this.

.5 units on Carlos to get the TKO/KO victory and 1 unit on Condit to win the fight straight up on the Moneyline. That way, if Condit happens to win a decision, we will still come out slightly in the green.

Get your bets in now or forever hold your horses.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.