UFC on ESPN 11 Betting Pick: Gillian Robertson vs Courtney Casey

Saturday night is a very important night for Gillian Robertson.

I am very curious to see how she rebounds from her previous defeat. Getting overwhelmed and TKO’ed on the feet in the first round is pretty disheartening. She quickly walked away after the referee jumped in there so she wasn’t terribly hurt.

Gillian just got overwhelmed by Maycee Barber. “The Future” is one of the more viciously powerful women in the 125-pound division.

Robertson’s opponent Saturday night, Courtney Casey, doesn’t have that kind of finishing ability on her feet but her striking is every bit as good as Barber’s.

This fight comes down to one thing and we will get to that in a minute… Maybe you already know and that’s cool too.

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this fight. Let’s take a look at those and make our predictions for the women’s flyweight fight between Gillian Robertson and Courtney Casey.

Gillian Robertson (-118) vs Courtney Casey (-102)

Round Total

OVER 2.5
-140
UNDER 2.5
+110

There are several fights on Saturday’s card with some massive age gaps.

Marion Reneau was born in 1977! That makes her 11 years older than Raquel Pennington. Roosevelt Roberts was born nearly a decade after Jim Miller.

These ladies don’t have quite a decade in between them but 8 years is still worth noting.

Courtney is just 33, though, which means she is likely just starting her decline. She is a pretty solid fighter despite her record of 9-7.

There are some very close losses on there including a controversial decision on the judges’ scorecards against Cynthia Calvillo. I thought Casey won that fight all day.

She defended all 5 takedown attempts from the Team Alpha Male product and cleanly out-struck her on the feet. Casey landed some nice calf kicks that had Cynthia hobbling.

Here’s the thing

I would rate Calvillo’s takedowns about the same as Robertson’s but Gillian doesn’t have near the striking prowess of the Calvillo.

I’m not saying she won’t but if Robertson can’t get this fight to the mat and keep Casey there, she is going to lose. Her striking is terrible. She is not a physical brute either and will be shorter and giving up a long 4 inches to “Cast Iron”.

On paper, this is Robertson’s fight. She has a 47% takedown percentage which is well above average and gets her opponents to the mat more than 3 times/15 minutes. The center of the Octagon will be key for both fighters.

Casey did just come up from 115 pounds but she is bigger than Robertson who could probably also make Strawweight. Casey’s takedown defense has looked better lately but 39% isn’t going to cut it against a grappler with as strong of a top game as Robertson.

She is very adept at taking the back and securing the rear naked choke as well.

This is already a 60/40 for Robertson due to the age difference. Then when you look at the takedown statistics and note the smaller cage, Robertson is the side here.

Courtney Casey’s best chance to win is to be very aggressive with her strikes. Do exactly what Maycee Barber did.

If she doesn’t and she waits to let her hands go, she will likely be taken down and eventually fall short on the judges’ cards.

Small cage, age, and proven wrestling in the UFC should be the differences here.

My Pick
GILLIAN ROBERTSON

In Conclusion

This is a fun fight here and I’m glad the oddsmakers and sharp bettors didn’t already knock this one out of the park.

I remember when the Curtis Blaydes vs Alexander Volkov fight was announced. I texted a colleague and said this is a slam dunk. He agreed and I think the betting odds opened up somewhere around (-170) for Blaydes. They are now well north of (-400)!

Sharp bettors who would normally be crushing baseball right now have to make their money somewhere. The stronger line movement can give us a better idea of what side to choose if the X’s and O’s aren’t providing an edge.

We have to be careful, though, of focusing too much on line value. This is especially true after it’s been beaten to death like the Blaydes line.

There has been some money that has come in on Gillian Robertson but not much.

Courtney Casey is going to be a tough out for Gil but if she was taken down by non-wrestlers at 115, then a 47%er averaging more than a takedown/round in her UFC career should be able to do it.

I’ll be honest. After watching tape, I like Casey especially with the momentum but the age difference and wrestling numbers for both ladies are too much to ignore.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.