UFC on ESPN 11 Betting Pick: Max Rohskopf vs Austin Hubbard

Wow, talk about line movement! And for a UFC debut as well.

Max Rohskopf opened as a (+125) underdog to the 11-4 Austin Hubbard. He is now close to a 2 to 1 favorite and will likely get there by fight time. Max is just 5-0 in his brief mixed martial arts career.

The former NC State Wolfpack wrestler was an NCAA qualifier at 165 pounds. He is a big boy! 6’1” and strong at lightweight!

He trains with multiple-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion, Robert Drysdale, at his Zenith Academy in Las Vegas, Nevada.

This fight has wrestling domination written all over it.

Before we jump, though, let’s break down Max a little further and his opponent, Elevation Fight Team’s Austin Hubbard, as well.

The online sportsbook BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us this week. Let’s take a look at those and finalize our prediction for the fight between Austin Hubbard and Max Rohskopf.

Max Rohskopf (-180) vs Austin Hubbard (+160)

Round Total

OVER 2.5

Max Rohskopf is a major prospect.

I repeat… Then why isn’t he at a 3 to 1 favorite already? The oddsmakers opened this is (+125) for a reason.

Statistically speaking, debut fighters tend to lose more than they win. That’s for sure.

I believe these betting odds have more to do with the capabilities of Austin Hubbard than they do the limitations of Max Rohskopf.

Hubbard can crack and his team is on a roll. He has already been in there with 2 elite grapplers in just 3 fights.

He is 1-2 losing to those all-stars on the ground, Brazil’s Davi Ramos and Denmark’s Mark Madsen. Austin was taken down a combined 11 times in those two contests. Madsen is an Olympic level Greco wrestler and Ramos is an ADCC grappling world champ.

Max is a better physical specimen for MMA than the two and his skills likely fall somewhere in between.

His wrestling isn’t quite as good as Madsen and his submissions probably aren’t on the level of Ramos. His size, build, and athletic ability trump each guy, though, and Hubbard as well.

Hubbard impressively took both of those uber-grapplers to a decision so maybe the over 2.5 at nearly even money is worth a shot. If (-110) is what you want, then parlay Max with Curtis Blaydes and there you go, (-110).

I feel much more confident in both of these two men finding a way to win than Hubbard surviving an absolute killer in a small Octagon on the mat.

Sure, Max could lose his UFC debut. Many excellent fighters do just that.

I give him a 75% chance to win, though, and that is more than 10 percentage points higher than what the current UFC betting line is telling us.

Hubbard could sting him in 1/4 fights but we still have the edge on the bookies we need to make a play.

Let’s put 2 units or 2% of your bankroll on Max Rohskopf to win.

My Pick

In Conclusion

Max Rohskopf could be the future at 155 pounds. I love his heart, his meanness, and we have seen him drop fighters in the past with a right hand over the top.

He is such an incredibly explosive athlete and seasoned wrestler that his opponents have to respect the level change.

Max can win this one by wall n stall, ground n pound, lay n pray, TKO, submission…

Austin’s path to victory is sprawl and brawl. Dominant wrestling makes the difference in fights and this one will be a prime example.

Get your bets in now on Max. I think some last-minute value hunters will move his odds north of (-200) since most of the value for this card disappeared a week or two ago.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.