UFC on ESPN 33 Daukaus vs Blaydes Betting Pick

This detailed breakdown of Blaydes vs Daukaus, headlining UFC on ESPN 33 covers our top prop betting picks and top UFC on ESPN 33 betting picks for the main event. Daukaus vs Blaydes is a high stakes match up, where both fighters have the ability to finish the fight at a moments notice. You’ll need to place your bet before 9:15 PM ET, March 26th, 2022. 
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UFC on ESPN 33 Blaydes vs Daukaus Betting Pick

Blaydes has superior takedown stats, a proven ability to strike with the UFC’s best, and a significant size advantage over Daukaus. Daukaus is a UFC fighter that’s risen too far, too fast and may need to drop down to face more mid level opponents before fighting in the top five. He’s certainly not on the level of Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis, the only two men to beat Blaydes to date. 

Tale of the Tape for Blaydes vs Daukaus Betting Pick 

Fighter Curtis ‘Razor’ Blaydes  Chris Daukaus 
Age 31 32
Height 6’4’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 80’’ Orthodox 76’’, Orthodox 
Record 15-3, (1 NC) 12-4
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/5 0/4
Fighter Training Camp Elevation Fight Team Martinez BJJ
Weigh in For Last Fight  265 250
Average Takedowns per 15 Minutes  6.67 0.0
Takedown Defensive Percentage 33% 100%
Significant Strikes Landed per minute  3.4 7.1
Significant Strikes Absorbed per minute  1.65 3.51

The UFC stats tell a story of an aggressive Duakaus, putting himself in the pocket more often than Blaydes. Blaydes uses takedown to mitigate damage over time, and even if Daukaus doesn’t give up his first takedown to Blaydes, he’ll be put into clinch positions with the much larger man. I’m concerned with the way Daukaus approached the Lewis fight, essentially willing to slug it out and see who falls. Blaydes was winning his fight with Lewis when he was clipped with a knockout shot in the second round. The difference here is in UFC experience, Blaydes is well versed against high level fighters and Daukaus hadn’t ever met someone he couldn’t walk through. Your Daukaus vs Blaydes prediction needs to consider how little experience Daukaus has against top five fighters. 

Should Fight Camp Affect my UFC on ESPN 33 Betting Pick?

The difference in sparring partner quality at Elevation and Martinez BJJ is notable. Blaydes has Overeem, Josh Copeland, Bojan Velickovic and several other up and coming heavyweight fighters. Martinez BJJ has no notable heavyweights outside of Daukaus. His brother Kyle Duakaus is in the UFC at Middleweight, and they have one up and coming fighter in Patrick Brady. Duakuas needs partners that can recreate the look and style of Blaydes. Top tier training doesn’t look the same as a small gym, and it’s not something you can recreate without the right ingredients. 

Blaydes may be the first fighter to land any ground striking on Daukaus at a UFC level. That’s tough to recreate in the gym.

Betting Odds for Daukaus vs Blaydes

Bet Available at Betonline.ag Odds  
Chris Daukaus Money Line +360
Curtis Blaydes Money Line -460
Over 1 ½ Rounds -205
Under 1 ½ Rounds  +165
Goes the Distance ‘No’ -285
Blaydes by Points  +250
Blaydes by TKO -110
Daukaus by TKO +475
Daukaus by Submission +1200
Daukaus in Round 1  +600
Blaydes in Round 1 by TKO  +450
Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action: Blaydes -325
Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action: Daukaus  +250
Goes to Decision  +220

Since creating our UFC preview, Daukaus has gone +50 points and Blaydes -50 into a much stronger favorite position. The Over/Under hasn’t moved, though the ‘fight goes to decision, ‘no’’ prop has gone -5 points to a stronger favorite. Any bettor who picks under or knockout props should be concerned with Blaydes’ grappling game. Blaydes likes to make fights last, and has only a 50% finishing rate among UFC wins. 
The ESPN on UFC 33 prop bets have three top picks outside of a Blaydes Money Line including: 

  • Over 1 ½ Rounds at -205
  • Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action: Blaydes at -325
  • Goes to Decision +220

I think we can bet on a longer fight. Daukaus should learn from his Lewis bout exactly what top heavyweights are capable of, and Blaydes is likely to be tentative to exchange with Daukaus, opting for a grappling centered strategy with the smaller fighter. 

UFC on ESPN 33 Fight Prediction 

There are a few factors affecting the Daukaus vs Blaydes odds and predictions to consider, namely Daukaus’ fight tape and Blaydes striking defense. 

Can Chris Daukaus Knock Out Curtis Blaydes?

Daukaus has knocked out four opponents with 122 strikes total. He keeps a high pace, landing at 53% accuracy. In the three first round knockouts, he was able to knock fighters down by meeting them in the center cage. Most of Daukaus’ striking defense is due to fighters unable to find range against him. Watch his fight tape, even his highlights, and you’ll see he isn’t blocking punches and slipping strikes- he’s simply inspiring enough fear that fighters can’t find his face.
Blaydes will use shooting and footwork to frustrate Daukaus’ forward moving style.
I expect this to be the first fight that Daukaus is put on his back.Curtis takes an average 1.65 strikes per minute, not because of clever slipping or blocking, but because of his shootboxing and footwork.   A Daukaus knockout is always possible but very unlikely, far more rare than the Daukaus UFC on ESPN 33 odds are making it seem. A Daukaus KO prop is the last bet I’d take. 

Is Curtis Blaydes a Better Wrestler than Daukaus?

Daukaus hasn’t been taken down in his first five fights, but Blaydes uses his takedowns in a different way. He shoots under his own strikes and the opponent’s. Blaydes isn’t a classic ‘chain wrestler’ but finds takedowns in the midst of striking exchanges in a way that’s very tough to recreate or prepare for. 
This is one of the reasons I see the Martinez BJJ camp as an issue because of the quality of Blaydes shootboxing. Many of his wins are less about clean knockout finishes, but outworking the other fighter oscillating between grappling and striking exchanges. 
Our top betting pick is still Blaydes money line at -450, but the Over or Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action: Blaydes at -325 prop bet are both great choices. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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