Volkov vs Rozenstruik Odds and MMA Pick

UFC Fight Night 207 will be headlined by Alexander Volkov vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik. These two heavyweight knockout artists faceoff June 4th, 7:45 PM ET. Betting odds are provided by Bovada, serving up eighteen betting markets from one of the top MMA betting sites. We’re breaking down each betting market, making our top Volkov vs Rozenstruik prediction for each odds grouping. 

Top Volkov vs Rozenstruik Betting Pick 

Our pick is Alexander Volkov’s Money Line bet. Rozenstruik is a slow starter and relies on knockout wins rather than gathering up rounds. Against Volkov, Rozenstruik doesn’t have the reach to leave rounds on the table, and Volkov will outwork him, exhaust him, and win a late finish or decision. 
Volkov pays out $64.52 per $100 wager, about +11 points of line movement since we’ve released our full UFC Fight Night 207 Blog

Top MMA Betting Pick for Jairzinho Rozenstruik Fans

Fans of the knockout artist should choose the ‘Fight Goes to Decision, No’ Prop bet. Both fighters have knockout power, and a win for Rozenstruik means a knockout was the likely outcome. He’s not going out there to point fight with Volkov, and his fans should focus on covering for the Volkov upset. 
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UFC Fight Night 207 Volkov vs Rozenstruik Money Line Betting Odds

Fighter  Money Line Odds
Alexander Volkov  -155
Jairzinho Rozenstruik +130

Volkov is the weakest favorite he’s been since the loss to Derrick Lewis.  Rozenstruik has won only one fight as the money line underdog. 

Betting Odds History for Volkov vs Rozenstruik

Rozenstruik upset Albini as a +126 at closing in 2019. He’s lost three times as the underdog, same as Volkov, to fighters like Gane and Blaydes. 

Volkov’s last two wins were over Tybura at -260 and Overeem at -162.

The Overeem fight had similar odds to this bout, with Volkov opening as the underdog (+105.) Volkov won via second round TKO. 
Rozenstruik’s odds status has always been narrow, never exceeding -230 as a favorite in the UFC. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Volkov vs Rozenstruik Method of Victory Prop Odds

Bet Volkov Odds Rozenstruik Odds 
By Decision or Points +150 +750
By TKO or Disqualification +240 +175
By Submission +1200 +3000
Inside the Distance +210 +185
Draw +6600 +6600
Unanimous Decision +170 +700
Majority or Split Decision +800 +1200

Take note that Rozenstruik has better knockout odds while volkov wins more decision props. This follows the UFC stats and fight history accurately. Volkov’s UD win offers only +170, and I agree that this is one of the better Volkov vs Rozenstruik odds for a prop bet pick. 
Rozenstruik’s TKO odds at +175 are tempting for his fans, but beware Rozenstruik’s finished only two of his last five opponents.

First, the aging JDS in the midst of a four fight TKO losing streak, and second Augusto Sakai in a three fight TKO losing streak. 

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UFC Fight Night 207 Volkov vs Rozenstruik Round Betting Prop Odds

Round Bet  Volkov Odds  Rozenstruik Odds
Win in Round 1 +500 +500
Win in Round 2 +800 +800
Win in Round 3 +1100 +1200
Win in Round 4 +1500 +1800
Win in Round 5 +2100 +2200
Win in Rounds 1, 2, 3  +230 +225
Win in Rounds 4, 5, Decision +165 +400

It’s interesting that Rozenstruik has better knockout odds, but his round calling odds are higher paying and higher risk. This is because he’s less predictable than Volkov. Fans and analysts don’t know which round Rozenstruik will turn up the heat.
While this unpredictability can be a good thing, it’s also a sign that oddsmakers are not confident in where Rozenstruik’s strengths lie. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Volkov vs Rozenstruik Over/Under Prop Odds

Bet Over odds or Yes Under odds or No 
1.5 -350 +250
2.5 -200 +150
3.5 -145 +110
4.5 -110 -120
Fight Completes 1 Full Round -650 +400
Fight Completes 2 Full Rounds -250 +185
Fight Completes 3 Full Rounds -150 +115
Fight Completes 4 Full Rounds -105 -125
Fight Goes the Distance +115 -150

Oddsmakers see the fight making it to the championship rounds, and so do I. Both fighters have improved at fighting at the UFC level. Volkov hasn’t been knocked out since 2018, and Rozenstruik was finished only by Francis Ngannou. 

Volkov vs Rozenstruik Average Finishing Round

In his last five, Rozenstruik has a first and second round knockout, while Volkov has two second round finishes. Both fighters have late finishes on record, and both have been finished only once. The table below represents only their UFC performances, as these are more predictive of our Volkov vs Rozenstruik Betting Pick. 
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Ending Round, Win or Lose Volkov # of Fights Rozenstruik # of Fights
Round 1 1 4
Round 2 2 2
Round 3 2 0
Round 4 1 0
Round 5 0 1
Decisions 6 2

Collectively, the decision is still the highest outcome. ‘Fight Ends in Round two’ is an interesting prop bet given that both fighters have two finishes there. 

Tale of the Tape for Rozenstruik vs Volkov

Fighter Jairzinho Bigi Boy Rozenstruik Alexander Drago Volkov
Age 34 34
Height 6’2 6’7’’
Reach/Stance 78’’ Orthodox  80’’ Orthodox 
Record 12-3 34-10
Submissions/TKO in UFC 0/5 0/4
Weigh in  242 253

Volkov is the bigger man, something that Rozenstruik has struggled with in Ngannou but didn’t seem to have an issue with against Overeem. I think Volkov’s athleticism and weight will play factors in clinch fighting as Rozenstruik attempts to close the distance. 

UFC Fight Night 207 Predictions from UFC Stats

UFC stats show Volkov as the far more active fighter, leading to his likelihood of a decision win overall.

Rozenstruik doesn’t wrestle offensively and this missing piece of his game can cost him against more dynamic heavyweights. 

UFC Stat Volkov  Rozenstruik
Significant Strikes Landed, Absorbed per minute  4.83, 3.04 2.8, 3.7
Takedown Offensive, Defensive % 70%, 71% 0, 75%
Average Takedowns per 15 Minutes .52 0
Control time in Last three Fights 2:01 0:02

Volkov is the more consistent of the two fighters. He’s utilizing wrestling when the moment calls for it and racking up control time to take rounds. The Volkov vs Rozenstruik betting odds give Volkov a better chance of submission, but he’s mainly using them as a countermeasure.   

UFC Fight Night 207 Main Event: Volkov vs Rozenstruik MMA Breakdown

Volkov does well against fighters that shell up rather than utilize footwork.

Rozenstruik is happy to take punches on the gloves and arms, but if Volkov sees an opening he’ll continue to pour it on.

His conditioning is great for a heavyweight and he can put up serious volume, throwing +250 strikes on multiple occasions. 

Volkov tends to look to grappling when losing stand up exchanges. Against Blaydes, Volkov found he forced Blaydes counter grappling. Against Rozenstruik, the plan will be to get back up and make space. I think that works in Volkov’s favor. 

Rozenstruik’s raw power protects him from the majority of counters. Against much taller fighters, I see the check hook playing a major role. Our Volkov vs Rozenstruik prediction is that Volkov lands more shots as Rozenstruik continues to engage hands down in the final three rounds. 

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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