NASCAR Betting Picks: Big Machine 400 at Indianapolis

It’s that time again! We are rolling too, fellas!

Well, ladies and gents, I should say. NASCAR is a classy sport. It’s not our fault the rest of the world has yet to realize it. It’s just gonna have to continue to be our little secret for a little while longer.

I have been a semi-NASCAR fan for most of my life but a couple of years ago, my editor asked if I wanted to cover the races every week and pick a few drivers for a betting spread.

Not many of my fellow writers were jumping at the opportunity most likely because they are honest writers who didn’t know enough about the sport to make confident picks each week.

I will admit, I was still pretty green as a NASCAR “handicapper” a couple of years ago.

I had significantly more knowledge of the nuances of a mixed martial arts fight than I did a NASCAR race mainly because I have competed and coached in one sport and not the other.

I’m rolling, teaching, and sparring all the time but I seldom get my Honda Accord over 75 even on the interstate.

I had some beginners’ luck picking PGA Tour golfers to finish inside the top twenty or maybe a matchup bet or two. It has evened off and we are close breaking even over the past couple years of golf bets.

MMA and NASCAR, though, took a while to gain traction but we are doing quite well. We broke out in MMA in 2019 and NASCAR in 2020.

Since the return of NASCAR this year, they have been staying very very busy much like the UFC making up for the lost time.

We just saw our first Saturday/Sunday NASCAR Cup Series doubleheader ever this past weekend at Pocono. We picked the Saturday race and Sunday’s race was just a repeat of the day before.

On Saturday, we had Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin to win. They finished 1st and 2nd, respectively. We took Erik Jones and Ryan Blaney to grab a top 3 spot. Jones ran very well but was wrecked and Blaney cooled a bit with a 12th place finish.

On Sunday, if you took the same picks, you hit another winner as Hamlin and Harvick were once again 1 and 2 just flipped this time, and we hit a top 3 pick with Erik Jones for (+550).

Let’s quickly recap our year of betting winners and top 3 finishers in NASCAR’s Cup Series in 2020.

I did make some attempts to pick a few Xfinity Series races when the betting opportunities in the sports world were rather sparse.

That didn’t go so well and I apologize.

Our matchup bets have been pretty decent for the year. I think we are slightly in the green.

NASCAR Cup Series 2020 Winner and Top 3 Betting Recap

  • Daytona-picked 3 drivers and Hamlin (+900) won
  • Vegas-picked 3 drivers and Logano (+800) won
  • Auto Club-picked 3 drivers and no wins
  • Phoenix-picked 3 drivers and no wins
  • Darlington-picked 2 drivers and Harvick (+700) won
  • Darlington-picked 3 drivers and no wins
  • Charlotte-picked 2 drivers and no wins
  • Charlotte-picked 3 drivers and no wins
  • Bristol-picked 2 drivers and no wins
  • Atlanta-picked 5 drivers and Harvick (+500) won-Also picked 1 top three driver and Truex (+275) hit
  • Martinsville-picked 2 drivers to win and Truex (+650) won-Also picked 2 top three drivers and Blaney hit (+350)
  • Miami-picked 4 drivers and no wins
  • Talladega-picked 2 drivers and no wins-Also picked one driver for top 3 and Blaney (+400) won
  • Pocono-picked 2 drivers to win and Harvick (+550) won-Also picked 2 top three’s and none hit
  • Pocono day 2-picking the same drivers are day one-Hamlin (+700) won-Also Erik Jones top 3 (+550)

If wagering 1 unit per bet, we put up 49 units.

Let’s say 1 unit is $100.00 so we wagered $4900.00.

We returned 63.75 units or $6,375.00.

That is a 30% return on your money on 15 NASCAR Cup Series races this year just picking winners and top 3 finishers. We have been a little lucky, of course, but even in some of our losses, our picks have driven well.

Let’s keep the winning train going this week in Indianapolis, Indiana for the Big Machine 400. BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us. Let’s make our picks to win as well as a top three wager or two.

To Win

Kevin Harvick: +450

The farther we get into the 2020 NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series season, two drivers appear to be separating themselves from the rest of the pack.

Kevin Harvick is one of those drivers.

He is first in the points standings by a decent margin on Ryan Blaney and has 3 wins on the year as well as 8 top five finishes in 15 starts. The only driver with more victories, 4, is Denny Hamlin who also has him beat in top 5’s with 9.

On Saturday, Harvick won his first ever race at Pocono and finished second on Sunday.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is another lengthy track like Pocono, Talladega, and Daytona. Kevin Harvick performs well just about anywhere and I definitely like his chances this week.

The (+450) kinda stinks but I’m not moving off of Harvick this week. Working our way back over Harvick’s past five starts, he won last year, and then 4th, 6th, 6th, and then 3rd in 2015.

He is running as well as anyone right now and all year. Kevin won here in 2019 and has a better finishing position average over the previous 5 races than anyone in the field.

Chase Elliott: +1200

I have yet to nail a win for Chase Elliott this year.

We were on him a couple of times and he has seen 3 or 4 victories slip away in the final laps. He isn’t really choking out there. It was more of a case of bad luck or getting spun out by Kyle Busch.

Elliott doesn’t have an outstanding history here at Indy but I like his price. He is tied with his BFF Ryan Blaney for third in the Cup Series in top ten finishes with 7.

Why aren’t we picking Ryan Blaney again, then? Patience. We aren’t even to the top three picks yet.

You know that’s where I like to put Blaney even though he got the W at Talladega, it was still nice to take home a 4 to 1 payout on a top three wager.

Chase ran very well on Sunday and we are banking on a driver ranked 4th in the Cup Series Points standings to get his second and well-deserved victory of the 2020 NASCAR season.

Elliott has just one top ten finish at Indy but it was in his most recent start in 2019.

I’m not super confident with this pick but I love Elliott’s raw talent as well as his price of 12 to 1.

My Picks
Harvick to Win
+450
Elliott to Win
+1200

Top 3

Ryan Blaney: +350

This has become a weekly occurrence and why not?

Okay, Blaney didn’t finish so well at Pocono in either race but he did manage to lead 21 laps on Sunday.

Before that, though, minus Bristol, I believe Blaney had about 6 straight top 3 finishes.

He is just running so well. I realize his teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have superior track histories than the young gun but as I said, he is just so hot right now.

Joey Logano hasn’t finished inside the top five since NASCAR returned in mid-May.

Brad has raced well but only really shown out on the road courses.

I like one more guy for a top three finish but we can’t leave Blaney out right now.

Aric Almirola: +900

Okay, another guy who doesn’t have the best track history but his performance this year at similar tracks has been outstanding.

Aric is also hot.

Two 3rd place finishes and two 5th place finishes in his previous 4 starts is hard to beat, especially at 9 to 1 for a top three.

No, he’s not Kevin Harvick but Kev is almost even money for a top three finish.

Kevin Harvick is his teammate, though, and the Stewart-Haas team has been running quite well ever since NASCAR’s return from lockdown in May.

Yes, 3rd will be a stretch this weekend in Indy for Almirola but he does have two top 3’s in his last four starts.

I like the hot hand with the high payout we are getting with Aric Almirola in this spot.

My Picks
Blaney Top 3
+350
Almirola Top 3
+900

In Conclusion

Let’s keep these wins coming!!

Golf has been tough since the return due to all of the unforeseen variables.

I think it’s a whole lot harder and takes much more meticulous work for a professional golfer to stay sharp over several months off than it does a NASCAR driver. That definitely appears to be the case.

As bettors, we don’t like too many variables that, of course, lead to variability, and that’s simply not what we need or want to succeed. Consistency is key.

As wild and crazy as NASCAR races can be, there is far less parody at the top.

Through 15 PGA Tour events, you might have 1-2 golfers with multiple wins. NASCAR has had 15 races thus far and we have just 8 winners.

Two drivers, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are responsible for 7 of those victories. The payouts do go down if your driver is hot but a lot of these betting odds, even on the winner, hold a good deal of value.

Besides Chase Elliott, I am going with drivers who are red hot at the moment. He isn’t exactly cold, though, and his price is right at 12 to 1.

Get your bets in now, team!

If we could get to 8 winners picked in 16 races, I will be ecstatic!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.