NASCAR Betting Pick: Dixie Vodka 400 From Miami

Can we make it three straight races picking the winner and a top 3 bet? I highly doubt it because I can’t find any top three bets anywhere.

It’s difficult to even find the betting lines for drivers to win the Dixie Vodka 400 from Miami. Bovada.lv came through for us, though. I’m not sure what is taking BetOnline.AG so long with the NASCAR lines.

I guess they are trying to make sure they don’t get beat again!

For this past Sunday’s race, we took Kevin Harvick to get it done in Atlanta.

He has dominated the track over the years and looked amazing in his win running away from the rest of the field with that clean air in first place. He wasn’t a huge favorite by NASCAR standards at just (+500) but I’ll take it.

Martin Truex Jr finished 3rd and I thought his odds of (+275) to snag a top three were kinda high.

I would expect him to be more like 2 to 1 considering his five top 5 finishes in the past 10 races and average finishing position of just under 7. We took both of these wins and we needed it after a bad night of UFC betting.

Kurt Busch also fought hard for us and passed Jimmie Johnson in the final laps to give us a (-110) matchup win.

On Wednesday night, the NASCAR superbus took the show north to Martinsville, Virginia just about 100 miles from my house.

Martin Truex Jr has become a short track killer over the past 5 years and no one is better at night as this was the first time since the first race in 1947 that NASCAR drivers raced under the lights at Martinsville. This was good enough for a (+650) win and we weren’t done either.

Ryan Blaney is another driver who has been improving his performances on short tracks over the past few seasons and we got him at (+350) for a top 3. Both drivers were penalized and had to go from first to last place for speeding on pit road.

They both still came back and finished 1st and 2nd! I felt like a proud dad watching his son hit his first little league home run.

Three in a row, guys? I already know my picks for this Sunday’s race in Miami.

This track is normally the winner take all championship race for the Monster Energy Cup Series but with all the hullabaloo of 2020, we are hitting South Beach a little early this year.

Let’s get to our predictions for the Dixie Vodka 400 from Homestead.

Potential Winners of the Dixie Vodka 400

Kevin Harvick: +450

Coffee’s for closers. And there is a reason they call Kevin Harvick “The Closer”.

I suppose Kevin Harvick has had enough coffee at this point after winning 50 races in his NASCAR Cup Series career. I don’t want to complicate this Homestead-Miami race more than needed.

There are a handful of drivers who typically perform well here and consistently finish inside the top five or ten. Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano have been the four best drivers here over the past say 4-5 years.

Denny Hamlin has always run Miami well but much like Martinsville, the majority of his positive results have been 5-10 years ago and not 1-5.

I usually look at drivers’ stats at a certain track over the past 10 races and since most tracks are run twice a year, a 5-year study is usually more indicative of future success than going back an entire decade.

We can go back 10 years, though, if you like. Kevin Harvick’s average finishing position is 4.6 over the past 10 starts at Homestead. Do you want a 6-year study? 4th, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st from 2019 going back to ‘14.

After seeing how dominant his car and horsepower package was at Atlanta makes me think you simply cannot ignore Harvick here. Even though all of his finishes have all been top 4, he hasn’t won a race here in 6 years.

Since then, Kyle Busch has won twice including completely stealing the Monster Energy Cup last year. Martin Truex Jr and Joey Logano have also cruised to victory lane in that time.

Kyle has been the most dominant over the past six races of these other drivers and he won here last year after going 22 starts without a win. That’s what I meant when I said he stole the championship.

Kev’s dominance this season, especially on the intermediate tracks, has me throwing Harvick into my betting spread even with his small odds.

Martin Truex Jr: +500

Marty made us (+275) last Sunday and then a cool (+650) on Wednesday. Should we stay in the car or jump shit to Kyle Busch’s #18 M&M mobile?

Kyle has the slightest edge in track history.

  • Last year, Kyle won and Marty was runner up.
  • The previous year, Joey Logano won and Marty was runner up.
  • When Truex Jr won this race in 2017, Kyle Busch was his runner-up.

We are splitting hairs so let’s see how each guy has fared on the intermediate tracks this season. The most recent Atlanta race-Kyle overtook Marty for second place in the last lap I believe but neither were close to Harvick.

Busch, Harvick, and Truex were 4,5, and 6 at the Coca Cola 600 in Charlotte.

It’s close but Kyle has won 1 race in the past 12 months. This race just happens to be Miami but it’s still an edge for Truex Jr.

I love Marty coming off of a win too. He loves to ride that momentum.

Joey Logano: +800

Fading Kyle Busch at Homestead could prove to be a fatal mistake.

One win in a year, though… I’ll shut up before I surely jinx myself. Maybe, we don’t have to fade him. We can still make money even on Harvick if one of the big four drivers get the win.

I am concerned with the fact that this isn’t a championship race and there aren’t only four drivers in the field who have a chance to win.

Drivers’ teams go all out to support them to win and as the race nears the finish, cars will generally give way to those in contention making this a 4-car race.

That explains why we are only seeing that handful finish well here. But, we are still going with the same guys? Yes. I know there is value in a really fast Hendrick car. Chase is (+750) and Alex Bowman is (+2000). There is a ton of value there.

Rookie Tyler Reddick is 80 to 1. He has won his previous two starts here which helped him seal up two Xfinity Series titles. Those are some longshot plays if you want them.

Kyle Busch (+500)

Play ‘em if you want to.

He has run the 1.5’s really well this year and he hadn’t won a race in nearly 6 months when he won here last year. Can’t count the guy out. He is that good here.

My Picks
Kevin Harvick
+450
Martin Truex Jr
+500
Joey Logano
+800
Kyle Busch
+500

In Conclusion

I’m going to feel pretty silly if any of these four don’t get the win. That’s okay, though.

We are coming off of two straight victories and with our lineup we have for Sunday, I think there is a good chance we make it a three-peat.

  • If Logano wins, we double our investment.
  • If Kevin Harvick pulls it out, we get our money back plus half a point.
  • Marty and Kyle will give us our investment back and a whole point.

Yes, the setup is odd this week but I just had that angry gremlin in my gut controlling my fingers. They aren’t letting me fade Kyle Busch.

We will see what happens this Sunday afternoon!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.