Sunday was a heartbreaker!
First off, we were on Justin Thomas to get the win on the PGA Tour for a 12 to 1 payout. He went into Sunday 2 strokes ahead of Collin Morikawa. By hole 5, he was 2 strokes behind Collin.
Eventually, by hole 16, Thomas had a 3-stroke lead heading into the final 3 holes. Yup, he blew it.
Then in a playoff, JT has a 50 foot putt for birdie with Morikawa about 25 feet from the pin. Thomas nails it and my house starts to celebrate only to see Morikawa sink his birdie.
Collin outplayed him in the playoff and it was tough not to get that victory.
On the track in Kentucky, our top three picks weren’t doing anything but our two picks for winners were 1 and 2.
This is several weeks in a row we have had the first and second place drivers with just a few laps to go in our betting spread.
Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr were (+1000) and (+800), respectively, and a win for either seemed imminent.
Well, Kevin Harvick took these guys 4-wide on the final restart with just 2 laps to go.
Martin had him high and Blaney had him low.
Ryan Blaney had to turn the steering wheel with one hand for most of the race as he had some shifter issues FYI.
Then Blaney went too low, hit a bump, and then hit Kevin Harvick which made Martin Truex slide up the track juuuuuust enough for Cole freaking Custer to slip through the crack and into first place.
With only 1 lap to work with, Martin Truex wasn’t able to catch the rookie who earned his first Cup Series win.
Here’s a quick look for yourself.
That’s 20+ units that disappeared just like that.
That would have been 9/17 Cup Series NASCAR winners picked and 4 straight weeks!
I don’t know of anyone else having this kind of year, honestly. There aren’t many pro NASCAR bettors out there but I challenge anyone’s record in 2020.
We have another fast turnaround this week with the Cup Series All-Star race this Wednesday night.
BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us. Let’s get to our NASCAR betting picks for the night race in Bristol.
Denny Hamlin: +700
Hey, Bristol might as well be Virginia so we can more or less call this a home race for the #11 FedEx Toyota.
Denny Hamlin is tied with Kevin Harvick for the most wins this season with 4. The two men have clearly been the best drivers in the Cup Series all year long.
There are a few drivers ahead of Denny in the points race but that is mostly because the guy doesn’t seem to care enough about stage wins as some of the other drivers.
Hamlin is thinking win win win all the time.
No other driver has more top five finishes (5) in their last ten starts at Bristol Motor Speedway and the #11 Gibbs car has an average finishing position over that time of 9.0.
I couldn’t find top three betting odds for this race.
Denny is a winner, though, and he won the night race here less than a year ago. He also led the most laps at the Bristol race in 2020.
Kevin Harvick: +450
So, om yea.
If you don’t include Kevin Harvick in your spread to win a 2020 NASCAR Cup Series race, I don’t know what you’re doing with your life.
We did leave him off of our ticket last week and nearly paid dearly. Well, you know the story.
Ryan Blaney still lacks quite a bit of experience when compared to the 40+ Harvick and Hamlin and he caused that Custer-cluck and helped the young man get his first Cup Series win so the rookie owes Ryan a beer.
Some of the moves Kevin Harvick was making were just ridiculous.
Kentucky is not his best track and he has zero wins there so you know he wanted it badly.
The driver of the #4 Mustang is steadily getting betting odds of (+450) now so it is what it is. They aren’t scaring me off, though.
He has an average finish of 10th in his last 10 starts here. That is really only best by Denny and one other guy, Joey Logano, who has struggled mightily since NASCAR’s return post lockdown.
Kev is a must bet almost every week now.
Ryan Blaney: +900
Mr. Top 3 is going to have to get the W for us this week.
I couldn’t find the top three betting odds anywhere and that probably has something to do with us and likely others kicking the sportsbooks’ bottom with these.
We have won with Truex at nearly 4 to 1 and Blaney a couple of times at 4.5 to 1.
Erik Jones hit one week for like (+500). Hopefully, those odds return real soon.
I mentioned a moment ago that Ryan was racing Kentucky last week with one arm and he nearly won! He is having a breakout season and it’s hard to leave him off my ticket each week. Only one top five in his last 10 starts here, though…
Only a couple of drivers have led more laps here over the past 10 races than Blaney. That really surprised me.
We have more or less gone with ⅓ weighting for track history and ⅔ of the weight of our predictions have been current form.
I didn’t plan it out that way but it’s kinda been the process and we are very successful.
Last week still burns! I wanted that win!
I think we have a good chance at victory, though, this week with our picks.
The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series will be allowing fans to attend tonight’s race from Bristol.
There won’t be many there in relation to the capacity of this place but it will still be the largest gathering for a sporting event in America since mid-March.
I’m psyched and there really wasn’t a lot of decision making that went into picking this race.
- Denny won it last year. He has been the second best driver in the Cup Series in 2020.
- Kevin Harvick is the hottest driver in the Series since the return and like Denny has multiple Bristol victories.
- Ryan Blaney has been the 3rd best driver all year and the second best since the return from lockdown.
I usually like him top 3 bc he still makes some youthful mistakes towards the end of races but (+900) is pretty good for a win.
Blaney has led quite a few laps at this track under the radar with no wins.
He could change that Wednesday night under the lights in the high-banking turns of Bristol Motor Speedway.