NASCAR Betting Picks: O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

I got my feelings hurt this Wednesday night!

It wasn’t as bad as this past Sunday’s end of race action but for the second straight race, we didn’t get the win.

That makes us 8/18 picking winners and we didn’t go with any top three bets last week because I didn’t see any available but overall top three we have picked a top three driver in 5 of 7 races with about 12 picks total.

We had Blaney and Harvick on Wednesday. They were 1 and 2 and I was feeling pretty good even though Chase Elliott was super fast and making his way through the pack.

The All-Star Race is very short.

Blaney, for some odd reason. Didn’t pit after the second stage ended.

Everyone else did and it’s not even like he gained any track position. It was the end of the state not a caution.

He radioed to his team and said he made a mistake.

Very strange occurrence and he wasn’t able to hold the lead for very long.

Eventually, his best friend Chase Elliott pulled alongside him and that’s when Kevin Harvick saw an opportunity to scoot past both of them.

I think that’s when Blaney let off, though.

He knew his old tires weren’t going to be able to hold off either Chase or Harvick so he let his best friend get first place and with the clean air and no more cautions, that was a wrap!

Bummed I didn’t pick Elliott. He ran Bristol well until he wrecked into Joey Logano late in this year’s race.

Blaney, Harvick, and Hamlin have just been so hot.

BetOnline.AG has this week’s betting odds and the top 3 bets are back!

Let’s get after it!

Kevin Harvick: -120

Why not to win?

Hey, I might throw him in there too.

Kevin Harvick has dominated NASCAR in 2020 and particularly so post-lockdown.

1,2,1,4,3 are his last five finishes.

He has won 2 of the last three races here in Texas and has an average finishing position in his previous 10 starts here of, get this, 3.8!!

Different sport but I can hear Michael Bisbing now: MY WORD!

10/10 top tens here recently. 7 of those were top five finishes.

I know it’s minus money but I was still surprised to see this small of a price on Harvick to snag a top 3.

He is (+350) to win which is the smallest number we have seen for a NASCAR favorite all year.

It never really gets below (+350) in the Cup Series.

This pick is a no-brainer.

Top 3
Kevin Harvick
-120

Ryan Blaney: +200

Not the (+350) or (+450) we were getting for a Blaney top three a month or so ago but I like the 2 to 1 here.

I’m not crazy about it.

Aric Almirola has been just as hot over the past month and he is nearly at 6 to 1 for a top three.

Blaney is starting out front, though, and I think that makes a big difference.

He and his team have made some very questionable calls at the ends of races this year and because of that, he has just one win this year despite 7 top five finishes.

He doesn’t have the very best history here but we have to remember that Ryan Blaney didn’t start becoming a real threat in NASCAR’s Cup Series until last season.

This year has been a true breakout season for the Penske Mustang driver and he finished 2nd here to Kevin Harvick the last time we raced in Texas.

Top 3
Ryan Blaney
+200

Aric Almirola: +550

The #10 Ford Mustang of Aric Almirola has been one of the best machines in the Cup Series for over a month now.

He easily won the first stage of the All Star Open to secure his spot in the following All Star Race where he was able to work his way towards the front and finish inside the top ten.

5,3,3 5,3,8 are his finishes in his last 6 races here.

He only has one top five finish here in Texas, though, in his past 10 starts but that was runner up in the most previous race and a respectable 7th before that.

He’s hot and he ran this track very well less than a year ago.

Give him some love for a top 3.

Top 3
Aric Almirola
+550

Martin Truex Jr: +900

We are betting the number here.

9 to 1 is really good for Marty on a track where he has had some success.

Obviously, this looks like it is Kevin Harvick’s race to lose.

He has had a much better year than Truex and mostly everyone in the Cup Series.

Harvick also dominates this track. He is (+350) for a win, though, and the rest of the drivers know that with Kev starting near the front, nobody is going to win if they don’t team up on the old man.

This is where hopefully, Denny gives Truex a nice push or perhaps Erik Jones and Kyle Busch can play some team ball.

All 4 of these Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have solid records at Texas Motor Speedway.

Marty was looking pretty good at the end of Sunday’s race in Kentucky.

I bet the man has a bit of a chip on his shoulder this time out.

He is starting in 10th but that’s not too bad. Chase, Denny, Kev, Blaney will all start in front of him but I think the Bass Pro Shops #19 Toyota will give himself a chance to win by the end of Sunday.

Winner
Martin Truex Jr
+900

In Conclusion

NASCAR has been our best sport for betting in 2020.

I’m not exactly sure how but the parody has been minimal.

Maybe that is because drivers aren’t getting the chance to practice and the races are so close together, that the garages can’t make all the adjustments they would like to in between races.

For whatever reason, though, we have pretty much stuck with a heavy diet of Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin to win. They have 8 total.

We have also hit several top three bets with Truex a couple of times and several times with Ryan Blaney.

We had the guys there at the end to win on Sunday and Wednesday. Things just didn’t go our way.

We can’t win em all.

This week, I really like our picks.

I hope Chase Elliott doesn’t spoil our party for the second straight race, though.

He is my favorite driver and I hate rooting against him.

Get your bets in now and enjoy the racing on Sunday, team!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.