The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Playoffs are officially underway and boy did we get off to an intense start!
We picked one winner and two top 3 finishers. Keselowski to win, Kyle Busch to finish top 3, and Joey Logano to snag a top 3.
The odds on the resurgent Logano were at 5 to 1 and I thought that was way off. He should have been around the (+300) mark or so and the bet hit.
I can’t brag too much because of how things went down but it has been a great season for us betting on the Cup Series.
We have hit on 9 winners and 6 third-place finishers. That’s out of just over 20 races picked.
It’s been a great run and I know the NFL has officially kicked off but money is money and we have been nailing NASCAR so here ya go.
Okay, this is the wild finish I was talking about from last weekend in Darlington.
As you saw, this allowed playoff points leader Kevin Harvick who was in third place at the time to hold on for the win after Marty wrecked Chase.
I say that because he can’t expect Elliott who isn’t a teammate or anything to concede in that situation.
This is the playoffs!
I’ll take the win on our pick and note that Truex Jr and Elliott are still both dangerous right now.
This week, the NASCAR supershow rolls north up the mid-Atlantic nightmare that is I-95 to Richmond, Virginia for the Federated Auto Parts 400.
The race goes down this Saturday as they are being smart to avoid that Sunday slot of NFL Week 1 action.
The Xfinity race gets the cool name of Virginia is for Lovers 250. We are stuck with another auto parts maker sponsoring the Cup Series race.
Let’s get another win this week, guys!
BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this week’s Bristol race. Let’s pick’em.
Yes, we are sticking with the hot hand.
Momentum is huge in NASCAR! Golf, eh, it seems to come and go much quicker.
We rode Ryan Blaney to several top 3 winning plays earlier this season. We kept hitting and his odds were still like 5 to 1 in some spots. I couldn’t believe it.
The sportsbooks are people just like us and the more we just calm the heck down, zoom out, and observe the length of the betting board with minimal bias, the better chance we give ourselves at finding the value.
The keyword there is finding. You find the value. Don’t try to create it.
As we level up in the sports betting game, we must remember to try to prove ourselves wrong more than prove ourselves right. The ego wants to be right and that bias will always be there to screw you if you let it.
I don’t care how much meditation you do or trips you take to the psychologist, the ego isn’t going to magically disappear. Awareness is much more useful than avoidance.
I want to revisit this thought and write a piece for you guys on how through awareness and mindful practice, we can get the ego to simmer down now.
That is the headspace we want to be in when handicapping and picking a winner to a sporting event.
Back to Joey Lo.
He is trending and it even though it was through a stroke of luck, we hit on the trend this past weekend. He was 5 to 1 a week ago to get a top three. Now his betting odds are more than twice as small.
Logano had been running well in previous weeks.
Only two drivers, Hamlin and Harvick, had more top five finishes in the last 10 races at Darlington than Logano.
Now, in a race here at Richmond where only one other driver has a better finishing position of Logano’s 6.0, his odds are somewhat more reflective of that.
He wasn’t getting the respect last week but this week he is. That doesn’t mean the value is gone.
There are 5 guys ahead of him on the betting board and the only one ahead of him in that average finish over the past 10 races is Kyle Busch, who has had a rough year for finishes.
Give Joey some love here.
I am throwing Logano for the win on here as well. I love the number, his previous success at the track and most of all, his momentum heading into this weekend.
Pick: Logano Top 3 and Win
Yes, the same Ryan Blaney I said that has fallen out of rhythm and out of touch with uncle mo.
Somehow, someway Ryan Blaney is currently 16th in the playoff standings, and in just a couple of weeks, we are going to see the playoff field shrunk to 12.
He needs this win badly and he has done an incredible job for Team Penske in what has been by far the best year of his young career.
Richmond is NOT his race.
Don’t go crazy here. Just a sprinkle of change on one of the best drivers all year who needs a win! He surprises us and snags a top 3.
Pick: Blaney Top 3
This number is outrageous.
I couldn’t look away. People are sleeping on Chase here.
He was wrecked this past weekend when he was on his way to a win. Richmond isn’t his worst track either.
Last year, he only managed a couple of top tens but in 2018, he had 4th and 2nd place finishes. He also had finishes of 2nd, 5th, and 1st in August.
I know Martin Truex seems to have this race figured out after his dominance in 2019 but I’ll take his odds x 4 and go with the #9 Hendrick Chevy.
Pick: Elliott to win
There you have your NASCAR picks for the week.
The Blaney pick is just a gut thing. I know he does not at all have the Richmond resume to succeed on Saturday.
It took current Richmond ace Martin Truex Jr a decade to figure this place out.
We do have our Joey Logano and Chase Elliott bets backed up with excellent numbers and their betting odds have a ton of value.
Both guys have been very hot over the past 6 weeks and will be extra hungry to get that pass to the next round of the playoffs with a win here.
I went with just the top 3 wager for Joey at first but then seeing him at (+1000) for a win, I had to make that an official pick as well.
Get those wagers in now and remember that the race is this Saturday evening, not Sunday.