NASCAR Betting Picks: Pocono Organics 325

Talladega did not disappoint!

.007 seconds separated first and second place. How cool was it for top 3 bettors for Almirola? How about Aric Almirola snatching that third-place finish backward?!

I almost picked Ryan Blaney to win but went with Chase Elliott instead. He was (+400) for a top three and I couldn’t turn that down.

We also hit Ricky Stenhouse Jr over Clint Bowyer. That was as much of a blowout slam dunk win as we could have hoped for.

That one was about (-115) so we have picked 5/13 race winners and we are about 3/6 picking top 3’s.

Today, we will look at some different types of betting odds and make some predictions.

NASCAR has been my best sport other than Taiwanese baseball since the lockdown.

UFC betting has been a trip but hopefully, the trip to Fight Island will calm things down a little bit. Because, hey, what are fight islands really for if they can’t bring some consistency to our lives.

Let’s focus on that word consistency moving forward with our betting spread to win or place. BetOnline.AG has the lines for us this week.

To Win

Denny Hamlin: +750

If you know me, you know I like to pick Denny Hamlin to win almost every race. We have picked him and won twice so far this season and I am confident we can add to that number.

The Virginia native won the most recent race here nearly a year ago and has 4 other victories at Pocono as well. Joe Gibbs cars finished 1,2,3 at that race, actually. Erik Jones was second followed by Martin Truex Jr.

  • Kyle Busch, Erik Jones, and Denny were 1st, 3rd, and 6th, respectively at June’s race here in ‘19. Those three were 1st, 5th, and 10th at the race prior.
  • Marty and Kyle were 1st and 3rd in the previous Pocono race.
  • The race before that, Kyle won, Marty was 3rd, Denny 4th, and Erik Jones was 8th.

Okay, so Truex has only been with Joe Gibbs racing for the past couple of years but that doesn’t change the fact that they have clearly been the dominant team at Pocono over the past 5 years.

Most of Denny Hamlin’s best work here (4 wins) back in 2006 when he won both races and again in 2009/2010 when he again won back-to-back starts. Can he make it three different consecutive wins here at Pocono? That would be incredible!

5th, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 4th… Those are Denny Hamlin’s respective finishing positions in 6 of the 7 non-short track races the NASCAR Cup Series has had since its return in mid-May.

The only Jordan sponsored athlete in the history of car racing has been the best driver all year. He has won the most races and is tied with Ryan Blaney for the most top five finishes with 7. He isn’t up there in the points race but we are betting on winners and top 3 drivers, not stage winners.

Kevin Harvick: +550

Kev burst out of the gate post lockdown with finishes of 3rd and 5th then 11th, 1st, a couple of bad weeks, and he managed a top ten finish at Talladega.

He has never won here but you know he would love to finally solve the Tricky Triangle.

6 top fives in the past 10 races is 2 more than anybody else.

Kyle Busch does have 2 victories in that time but Harvick has been more consistent.

Kevin has also been the better overall driver in 202 between him and Kyle Busch.

Harvick is #1 in the points standings this season and is second in NASCAR in top fives with 6.

I don’t feel as good about this one as I do my top threes or even Denny Hamlin with the longer odds but it’s just a feeling plus many many experts are on Kevin for Saturday.

Show him some love along with the rest of our guys this week and let’s continue our stellar run of NASCAR betting.

My Picks
Hamlin to Win
+750
Harvick to Win
+550

Top 3

Erik Jones: +550

This is the biggest no-brainer!

It’s almost like how I told you guys we should probably be picking Ryan Blaney to finish inside the top 3 every week because that’s pretty much what he has been doing lately.

Minus Bristol, Blaney is 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd in his last 5 starts. What a savage.

Pocono is not his best track, though. He does have 1 victory here in 8 starts but that was his only top 5 finish. Erik Jones, though…

He is not having a great year. He was incredible over the second half of 2019 when he racked up 11 top ten finishes over the final 20 races.

I say incredible because it was the best the young driver has ever done but compared to the elite drivers’ numbers, I guess incredible isn’t the best word.

Erik has his favorite tracks, though, and Pocono is definitely one of them.

In just 6 starts here, he has 5 top tens including 4 inside the top five.

The Michigan native is 2nd, 3rd, and 5th in his previous three starts here.

How can you not bet him at (+550) for a top 3 finish?

Ryan Blaney: +400

Again? (+400) to get another top three?

I know this isn’t really Ryan’s best race with only 1 top five finish in 8 starts but come on!

As I mentioned a moment ago, he has 5 top threes in 5 races not including the short track at Bristol. He didn’t have dominant numbers on those tracks either.

I just think he’s on fire. The hottest driver on the track is going to keep getting my top 3 money until he proves me wrong.

I’ve hit two top 3s with him and was so close to a victory before the break. Let’s hope either him or Erik Jones makes it into the top 3!

My Picks
Jones Top 3
+550
Blaney Top 3
+400

In Conclusion

We have a good looking weekend for racing.

Not one but two races scheduled at probably the most boring track in NASCAR. Fun, huh? I promise I won’t be upset if you don’t watch all of Saturday or Sunday’s race.

Remember, though, that the odds in this article are for Saturday’s race.

It will be less mileage than we are used to seeing at Pocono as well.

I will be upset with you if you don’t pick either Erik Jones or Ryan Blaney for your top three. Both have incredibly valuable betting odds next to their name.

Just look at how EJ has raced here in the past and how hot Blaney is at the moment and they each become sure-fire bets.

We have nailed a top three driver and a winner in two different races since the season restart in May. I would love love love to hit another because it has been a rough month for MMA betting.

NASCAR has been my best year ever and we are treading water in golf and Taiwanese baseball.

I didn’t think NASCAR would be carrying me and I don’t know many cappers who can say they have 5 winners this year so let’s keep the faith for now.

Denny is the man here with 5 wins including the most recent race last July.

Kevin Harvick hasn’t been as dominant lately as he was right after lockdown and he also has zero wins here.

He is pushing 45 years old but with this race being a bit shorter and only Kyle Busch has led more laps here in the past 5 years, I like his chances.

The (+550) isn’t much but most NASCAR winners in 2020 have been priced between (+500) and (+900). That seems to be the sweet spot.

And again, remember that this is a Saturday race so get your bets in pronto!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.