We just keep winning, guys!
I’m not sure what’s going on.
I told a good friend of mine in Vegas that I was doing pretty well picking winners in NASCAR and he asked for my picks this week.
I had to be honest with him. I told him he should probably not listen to me this week because there is no way we are going to win again.
Or is it?
This will be the first time NASCAR has raced Kentucky Speedway in the middle of the day in the middle of the Summer.
They aren’t really sure what that asphalt is going to do but I don’t think it’s enough of an issue to potentially affect our pre bets.
Last week, the NASCAR show was at historic Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the Big Machine 400.
Yes, it is normally the Brickyard 400 but pay no mind. They have had to change the sponsor name and the name of several of the races so far.
I guess the timing is throwing things off.
I did a big hike on Sunday of about 15 miles on the Appalachian Trail so I missed watching the race live.
When I caught up that evening DVR style, for some reason I thought I had picked Hamlin and Harvick to win like I had the previous two weeks and won both times.
It felt great to have the 1st and 2nd place guys as my winner picks and I was happy that Hamlin was in front with 7 laps to go as his odds paid a bit better than those of Kevin Harvick.
The FedEx #11 Toyota Camry blew a tire coming around turn three with just 7 to go and that changed everything.
Harvick jumped to first on Hamlin’s wreck. That gave us the winner pick but only at (+450).
We did have Ryan Blaney and Aric Almirola as our top three finishers and the latter made the jump from 4th to 3rd when Hamlin wrecked.
That was a huge break because he paid at 9 to 1 for a top three finish even though he had 5 straight top fives heading into the Big Machine 400.
That puts us at 53 units wagered on winners and top 3’s.
- We have picked 10 top 3 finishers over 6 races this year and hit on 5 of them.
- So, we have picked a top three finisher in 5 of 6 races this year.
- In the 16 races this season, we have picked 43 drivers to win and hit on 8 of them.
- 8 of 16 races, we have picked a winner.
I am seeing cappers bragging about picking 2 or 3 winners this season but I’m not sure many can say they have 8.
This is going to be very difficult to maintain but we can only do our best.
This week is kinda tough because the drivers with the momentum don’t have the best track history here and vice versa.
BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us.
Let’s look at those and make our driver picks to win and possibly finish third.
Top 3
Matt Kenseth: +1200
Okay, not gonna ask you to put down much money for the near 50-year-old Matt Kenseth but he is worth a punt here.
It took a while for this team to get it right coming back after the extended quarantine break.
Remember, Matt took the car and crew chief of Kyle Larson who is indefinitely out of NASCAR competition after he was overheard saying a racial slur during one of the iRacing competitions.
After finishing just outside of the top ten in the two Pocono races, the #42 Ganassi Camaro finished runner-up last week to Kevin Harvick.
Matt has an average finish of 8.4 over the past 8 races here including one victory.
Maybe half of a unit on Kenseth here.
Erik Jones: +550
EJ has had some terrible luck in 2020.
The team over at Joe Gibbs Racing hasn’t really been able to get 4 really good cars running consistently this year.
Denny Hamlin has been pretty dominant all year long but Kyle Busch and Marty Truex Jr have just one win between them in 16 starts this season.
Erik has been wrecked a few times and he has done it to himself on a couple of occasions as well.
I like him this week, though.
He has a pretty solid history at Kentucky.
Minus a couple of crashes over the past couple of weeks, Jones has 3rd and 5th place finishes.
He has shown that if he can manage to keep his car on the track, he is fast and finishes well.
I like the near 6 to 1 we are getting in this spot. I was expecting (+400) or so.
Kyle Busch: +150
Okay, strange play here.
I have successfully steered clear of Kyle Busch for the vast majority of the year.
It is very hard to stay off of the guy. You look at track history and his name is consistently at the top and some races, he outright dominates.
Kentucky is one of those tracks.
In his last 9 races in the Bluegrass State, Kev has an average finishing position of 4.7!
That is far and above better than any other active driver in NASCAR’s Cup Series.
Kyle Busch has stated as well as many top analysts that he is a driver that benefits quite a bit from practice.
We aren’t getting any practice time from week to week now and it shows.
That’s pretty darn good.
He just hasn’t been able to get that win.
That’s why I’ll just take him to place in the top three.
(+150) isn’t much but it’s something.
2nd, 4th, and 5th in his previous three starts here.
I think he sneaks into the top 3 if he doesn’t get the win.
Kyle will be starting in the front of the pack on Sunday so that should help.
To Win
Martin Truex Jr: +800
I know Truex is not the hottest driver on the track right now by any means.
He is elite, though, and has proven that even when things haven’t been going his way, he can still pull off the victory.
Marty has just one victory this year and that came at Martinsville.
We are getting a nice number here on the Joe Gibbs driver from New Jersey.
I have been riding hot hands for much of the year and the strategy has, of course, worked very well but I think the Gibbs Toyotas dominate the action at Kentucky on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney: +1000
Another number I just can’t ignore is Blaney at 10 to 1.
He is still very new to this track but secured a runner up finish a couple of years ago.
We know how hot he is driving.
I don’t think he has really cooled off as much as it seems, though.
He had a very tough break last week when one of his tire men was squished by the #48 of Justin Allgaier in the pits.
Indy has such a narrow pit road and Blaney’s car wasn’t the same after that.
Kyle Busch also tapped his door early on in the race as payback.
Blaney has been consistently faster than his teammates Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski this season and I don’t expect much different on Sunday.
Get your bets in now, guys, and enjoy the racing on Sunday evening!
